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How Spring Training Activity Can Hurt Your Fantasy Team!

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How Spring Training Activity Can Hurt Your Fantasy Team!

Postby DRAFTAHOLIC » Sat Mar 15, 2008 12:36 am

How do you think you should go about Spring Training Activity? Should it be the end all be all of what a player will do throughout the coming season? I hope you don’t believe such nonsense because in the end, Spring Training numbers have very little to do with what a player can and cannot do throughout the season. Take Ronnie Paulino of the Pittsburgh Pirates as an example. Last year’s Spring Training numbers put Paulino on a ton of fantasy rosters and last year’s April statistics by Paulino took him off those rosters with equal ferocity.

Folks, there comes a time when you just have to trust two basic principles when trying to figure out player projections for the coming season. As you guessed by now, those two principles have absolutely nothing to do with Spring Training.

First and foremost you need to pay close attention to the last half of the player’s statistics from last season. Why? Well, a number of players shine in the second half and if that statistic is not the norm for your favorite fantasy player, you might want to take note of the increase in productivity. Ask yourself why the player out-performed normal expectations? Was he in a contract year? Was he battling for more playing time? Did he suddenly figure things out in the Major Leagues or was it just blind luck? The answer you arrive at will enable you to create an overall solid projection for your player.

A player can also decline in the second half for a number of reasons, but if the injury was a short term and easily corrected problem his stats might be completely underestimated prior to the start of the next season. This could be good for you if you pay attention ahead of time.

The second principle is one that most of you already follow. Players pretty much have a pattern to their style of play. Now this is not a rule that you can always “Draw on your fantasy wall” as one hundred percent accurate, but more often than not it is one you can trust. The pattern I refer to comes in different formats. Some players simply produce similar numbers across the board year after year. Other players have a pattern of one year above average numbers followed by the next year below average numbers. Josh Beckett is one such player who fits that pattern and Alfonso Soriano is another. Look at their stats and see if you see the patterns. Another pattern is based upon any particular moves a player made in the off-season. For example, Santana’s move to the National League should help to increase his K rate. Why, because instead of Santana pitching to a DH power hitter, he now has to face a pitcher. You might also want to take a look at the team a player signed with, and the stadium he will play at for home games. This is where we can be certain that someone like Aaron Rowand will not have as great a season with San Francisco as he did with his previous team. First off the team he now is playing for does not have as much talent and secondly the size of the ballpark must also be a factor. These are the factors that are most important in determining the value of your roster come draft day.

Prospects of course do not have Major League patterns to follow which is why you can never put a prospect as a starter on your active roster. Last season Alex Gordon was supposed to be the end all, be all of rookies and many managers took him over and above tenured players who did a heck of a lot more for other fantasy teams that did not bother with Minor League and or Spring Training hype. Even taking Gordon as a back-up player was harmful. I made that mistake last year and took Alex Gordon over Brandon Phillips. I thought I could get Phillips later on in the draft and I was wrong. My reasoning was based on Phillips only having one solid season so far and I expected him to be underestimated. He was until the second round (round 14 after keepers) and he was grabbed just before my turn in the draft. That one little mistake cost me the championship as I lost by one point. Losing by one point is not an easy thing to live with especially knowing that I could have changed that destiny by not putting as much emphasis on rookie talent. So allow my lessons be yours; without the pain.

In the end, Spring Training activity is only worth while to your fantasy team by noting any significant injuries or major roster moves. Be especially mindful that players who have secured roster positions do not always put forth the greatest effort in Spring Training which is why star players numbers in Spring Training can often project false projections for the upcoming season. Rookies on the other hand are fighting for a roster spot and so they put forth the maximum amount of effort, often skewing their average stats by 20 to 30 points off the norm. Then as soon as they make the team, they lighten up and/or they don’t make any changes to their game while opposing pitcher so and wha-la, instant failed rookie.

Now, with these concerns about Spring Training out of the way, follow Spring Training to your heart’s content, watch the games, and get ready for the start of what should be a wonderful season of baseball.

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Re: How Spring Training Activity Can Hurt Your Fantasy Team!

Postby jdsun1 » Sat Mar 15, 2008 4:32 am

Spring Training Stats from last year right before his breakout season.

PLAYER AVG G AB R H TB 2B 3B HR RBI
B Phillips .350 20 60 9 21 41 3 1 5 10


You can ignore spring training stats completely while the smart fantasy owners move Hamilton and Butler up on their list.
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Re: How Spring Training Activity Can Hurt Your Fantasy Team!

Postby Snakes Gould » Sat Mar 15, 2008 4:49 am

jdsun1 wrote:Spring Training Stats from last year right before his breakout season.

PLAYER AVG G AB R H TB 2B 3B HR RBI
B Phillips .350 20 60 9 21 41 3 1 5 10


You can ignore spring training stats completely while the smart fantasy owners move Hamilton and Butler up on their list.


im sure there are other millions of examples of players who raked in spring training yet will never even make a mjor league club.

Damon Hollins leads the league in rbi's so far this spring training. you bumping him up as well?
Mike Morse is getting on base at a .658 clip. certainly that makes him a late 2nd rd/early 3rd round pick right? ;-7 :-D
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Re: How Spring Training Activity Can Hurt Your Fantasy Team!

Postby Sevon » Sat Mar 15, 2008 6:29 am

Snakes Gould wrote:
jdsun1 wrote:Spring Training Stats from last year right before his breakout season.

PLAYER AVG G AB R H TB 2B 3B HR RBI
B Phillips .350 20 60 9 21 41 3 1 5 10


You can ignore spring training stats completely while the smart fantasy owners move Hamilton and Butler up on their list.


im sure there are other millions of examples of players who raked in spring training yet will never even make a mjor league club.

Damon Hollins leads the league in rbi's so far this spring training. you bumping him up as well?
Mike Morse is getting on base at a .658 clip. certainly that makes him a late 2nd rd/early 3rd round pick right? ;-7 :-D



Hermida and Hamilton are being drafted right around each other this year. Choosing between the two, which one would you likely take right now in a draft?
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Re: How Spring Training Activity Can Hurt Your Fantasy Team!

Postby DRAFTAHOLIC » Sat Mar 15, 2008 11:54 am

Hermida and Hamilton are being drafted right around each other this year. Choosing between the two, which one would you likely take right now in a draft?


Personally I would shy away from both players. Again no matter how great a player performs in Spring Training, you cannot trust the numbers. If I had to go with one of these players it would be in the late rounds of any draft. Hamilton could knock out 25+ Home Runs, but he could also end up platooning. Hamilton does not do well with lefties .208 and only 1 HR, and that alone would call out Platoon. Hermida dealt with injuries again and he needs to stay healthy to produce the expected 20 HR output. Just remember the team he plays for.

I would like to introduce you to Chase Headley. He has gained 15 pounds of muscle in the off season and should get the starting outfielders job. If the two players you are looking at are taken too early, go for Chase. You will get a 3b spot and OF spot.

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Re: How Spring Training Activity Can Hurt Your Fantasy Team!

Postby rookies and cream » Sat Mar 15, 2008 12:15 pm

I don't understand...

You're recommending to shy away from Hermida and Hamilton, while recommending Chase Headley. Didn't you just say not to trust prospects/rookies?
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Re: How Spring Training Activity Can Hurt Your Fantasy Team!

Postby ImTheScientist » Sat Mar 15, 2008 12:46 pm

jdsun1 wrote:Spring Training Stats from last year right before his breakout season.

PLAYER AVG G AB R H TB 2B 3B HR RBI
B Phillips .350 20 60 9 21 41 3 1 5 10


You can ignore spring training stats completely while the smart fantasy owners move Hamilton and Butler up on their list.


Do you move Ichiro and weeks down your list?
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Re: How Spring Training Activity Can Hurt Your Fantasy Team!

Postby Yoda » Sat Mar 15, 2008 12:54 pm

rookies and cream wrote:I don't understand...

You're recommending to shy away from Hermida and Hamilton, while recommending Chase Headley. Didn't you just say not to trust prospects/rookies?


lol seriously... I actually liked all three of those guys before they started raking in ST. Also, I drafted Weeks in pretty much every draft regardless of how he looks in ST. This is the first year he hasn't started off the season coming off an injury.
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Re: How Spring Training Activity Can Hurt Your Fantasy Team!

Postby Snakes Gould » Sat Mar 15, 2008 12:59 pm

Sevon wrote:
Snakes Gould wrote:
jdsun1 wrote:Spring Training Stats from last year right before his breakout season.

PLAYER AVG G AB R H TB 2B 3B HR RBI
B Phillips .350 20 60 9 21 41 3 1 5 10


You can ignore spring training stats completely while the smart fantasy owners move Hamilton and Butler up on their list.


im sure there are other millions of examples of players who raked in spring training yet will never even make a mjor league club.

Damon Hollins leads the league in rbi's so far this spring training. you bumping him up as well?
Mike Morse is getting on base at a .658 clip. certainly that makes him a late 2nd rd/early 3rd round pick right? ;-7 :-D



Hermida and Hamilton are being drafted right around each other this year. Choosing between the two, which one would you likely take right now in a draft?


id take hamilton first because his power is pretty legit. hermida has yet to put everything all together on the field (although 17 hr last year is pretty nice). hermida has a better chance of hitting .300, hamilton a better chance at hitting 30 hr.
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Re: How Spring Training Activity Can Hurt Your Fantasy Team!

Postby abrage22 » Sat Mar 15, 2008 2:01 pm

i think looking at ST stats is a great way of looking for who may have a hot season, or someone who may struggle. i'll make a bet that ichiros struggles will continue somewhat continue into the regular season ;-D
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