I would like to know what the rest of you think about Jeff Francis.
I look at his minor league numbers, (10.09 career K/9, 1.00 WHIP - last two minors stops 11.64 and 10.76 K/9 ) and wonder if his stats are for two different people. It's like at the end of 2004 he went on holidays and someone else came back.
Is Francis dipping below 4 ERA and pushing towards 8 K/9 a pipe dream or possible? The experts I have been looking at expect him to be a little worse in ERA and K/9 in 2008.
I have had him for a while in dynasty leagues and am not happy that I got what was advertised.
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Personally, I think he's simply an average pitcher. He has over 600 MLB IP, and consistently has been close to the MLB average in ERA/WHIP/AVG/HR per 9 and he has a relatively neutral GB/FB ratio. I think he may eventually be able to slightly lower that WHIP and increase his K rate up to 7 or 7.5, but I think the ERA and most other peripherals will stay close to the same.
He was a pretty huge pitching prospect and he's managed to more than hold his own pitching in Colorado, something very few pitchers can successfully do for a long time. I doubt he'll put up spectacular numbers while he's there, but the year he gets out of Colorado is the year I'll be drafting him in every league.