I'm leaning against going against the conventional wisdom here and ranking Howard over McCab. Anyone think I'm crazy?
MCab's getting, in my opinion, a bit too much love; sure he's extremely talented, but he has yet to break the top 10, he'll be playing in a new league with increased expectations, different pitchers, I know that the Tiger's lineup is formidable but y'all think he's really going to be all that much better than previous years?
Howard on the other hand was the 2nd best hitter in the game in 2006, was ranked 1 better than McCab last year, is capable of hitting close to 20 more home runs, has produced at least 20 more RBI's than Cabrera the last 2 years, the only question is the batting average and I'm thinking there's a good chance that the difference between the two could be less than .030 points.
I'm not too worried about those picks that MCab and Howard will be in. I think everyone in the first round could be ranked pretty much in any order and I wouldn't worry too much about it. I think they all have similar value.
I personally have Howard ahead of MCab but I'm not losing any sleep over that decision!
J35J wrote:I'm not too worried about those picks that MCab and Howard will be in. I think everyone in the first round could be ranked pretty much in any order and I wouldn't worry too much about it. I think they all have similar value.
I personally have Howard ahead of MCab but I'm not losing any sleep over that decision!
Agreed.
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." ~George Carlin
J35J wrote:I'm not too worried about those picks that MCab and Howard will be in. I think everyone in the first round could be ranked pretty much in any order and I wouldn't worry too much about it. I think they all have similar value.
I personally have Howard ahead of MCab but I'm not losing any sleep over that decision!
Doesn't really bug me at all... in fact I don't really think you're even going out on a limb here.
I've got ADPs on them at #9 for Howard and #10 for MCab, so you're neck and neck anyway.
Current projections I'm looking at: Howard: .280/50HR/135RBI/100R/0SB MCab: .320/34HR/125RBI/105R/5SB
Trading forty points of average for 15 HR and 10 RBIs... nothing earth-shattering.
My biggest concern is the tiers at their positions... I feel a whole lot better about taking MCab at 8 or 9 and then having a long second tier at 1B to choose from (Berkman, Hafner, Tex, Morneau, Atkins, Lee, and Gonzo).
Doing it the other way (taking Howard at 8 or 9), your 3B tiers get a little shorter (Braun, ARam, Atkins... and maybe Chipper). The dropoff after this group into the third tier gets scary steep.
If you're definitely taking a 1B/3B combo in the 1st and 2nd round, I don't think you can make a bad move here, either way would be perfectly fine... but if you're leaving the door open for a good #1OF (like a Crawford or Sizemore) at the beginning of the second round, I'd much rather have MCab and then try to catch Hafner or Lee in the 3rd or 4th rounds. Otherwise you're taking Howard and an OF in the 1/2, and praying that nobody gets cute and takes ARam and Atkins before it gets back to you.
I agree that they could be interchangeable, but I'll be taking MCab before Howard in a regular 5x5.
Howard: 95/45/130/.275 MCab: 110/35/130/.325
Those are my projections - and depending on which you value more, I think an argument could easily be made for either. However, the player with the biggest chance to disappoint compared to those numbers is Howard. His relative age compare to MCab, his record setting K totals, and his lack of an ability to consistently hit LHPs concerns me. I wouldn't hesitate to take either, but MCab seems to be the safest bet with the most upside.
Yeah cache you're right and that's the only reason I asked, liked the others said it probably won't make a huge difference overall taken just by itself but 1b seems to have some better options later on than at 3rd, however there is one particular 3b that appears to be going relatively later than some of the 1b guys that I think evens it out a bit. Thanks for the responses, I think I'm set.
im surprised to not see more talk about how much more deep 1B is than 3B. ive taken a 1B in teh first rd in my first two drafts and have had to reach for atkins and chipper just to make sure i didnt get stuck w a terrible 3B. if you get 3B first...there are plenty of startable 1B available througout teh draft. ive had teh 10th and 12 picks in these drafts and was hoping my asss off mcab would fall to me so i could get a stud OF in teh 2nd and not worry about 1B until later...which would be fine.
gusy like agon and konerko are muchbetter than encarnacion and lowell imo
I'd take Cabrera in roto for sure, I might take Howard in H2H though where power means more.
The difference between a .320 AVG and a .275 AVG more than makes up for the other stats in my opinion. I could also see Cabrera beating Howard by 25 runs this year. It also isn't out of the question that Cabrera is back to 8 or 9 SB as Detroit doesn't mind sending the middle of their order.
shawngee03 wrote:im surprised to not see more talk about how much more deep 1B is than 3B. ive taken a 1B in teh first rd in my first two drafts and have had to reach for atkins and chipper just to make sure i didnt get stuck w a terrible 3B. if you get 3B first...there are plenty of startable 1B available througout teh draft. ive had teh 10th and 12 picks in these drafts and was hoping my asss off mcab would fall to me so i could get a stud OF in teh 2nd and not worry about 1B until later...which would be fine.
gusy like agon and konerko are muchbetter than encarnacion and lowell imo
Cafe Home
Fantasy Football
Fantasy Basketball
Fantasy Hockey
by horatio » Fri Mar 14, 2008 11:25 am 
