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Chris B. Young vs. BJ Upton (OF Controversy)

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Re: Chris B. Young vs. BJ Upton (OF Controversy)

Postby makewayhomer » Fri Mar 14, 2008 1:29 pm

Fade2White12 wrote: With Iwamura, Crawford, and Pena in front of him, why would Upton batting full time as the clean-up hitter yield only 68 RBI?


b/c he doesnt have a lot of power and his AVG should be just a bit above league average.

if you don't like PECOTA or ZIPS or CHONE, ok. but PECOTA is the best prediction system out there, gotowarmiussagnes has provided links that show this.

if you bet against it consistently, you're going to be wrong more often than not
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Re: Chris B. Young vs. BJ Upton (OF Controversy)

Postby Yoda » Fri Mar 14, 2008 1:36 pm

makewayhomer wrote:
Fade2White12 wrote: With Iwamura, Crawford, and Pena in front of him, why would Upton batting full time as the clean-up hitter yield only 68 RBI?


b/c he doesnt have a lot of power and his AVG should be just a bit above league average.

if you don't like PECOTA or ZIPS or CHONE, ok. but PECOTA is the best prediction system out there, gotowarmiussagnes has provided links that show this.

if you bet against it consistently, you're going to be wrong more often than not


NOt enough power? How exactly does a guy with .500+ SLG as a 22 yo not have enough power? Batting 4th in 2007, he racked up 25 RBI in 33 G. There is no freaking way he ends up with 68 RBI unless he is moved out of the cleanup spot and only plays 100 G.
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Re: Chris B. Young vs. BJ Upton (OF Controversy)

Postby AussieDodger » Fri Mar 14, 2008 1:41 pm

I don't see what the controversy is.
Upton is easily better at the moment, and if he's hitting clean up then he's miles better fantasy-wise.
CBY needs to get his OBP into the .360s like in the minors for this to even be a contest.
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Re: Chris B. Young vs. BJ Upton (OF Controversy)

Postby makewayhomer » Fri Mar 14, 2008 1:45 pm

I'll happily wager that Upton's SLG is below .500 this year with any interested parties

his SLG is ok, I didn't mean to say it was bad. MAYBE he'll hit 20 HR's this year. but thats not a lot of power.
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Re: Chris B. Young vs. BJ Upton (OF Controversy)

Postby Fade2White12 » Fri Mar 14, 2008 1:46 pm

makewayhomer wrote:
Fade2White12 wrote: With Iwamura, Crawford, and Pena in front of him, why would Upton batting full time as the clean-up hitter yield only 68 RBI?


b/c he doesnt have a lot of power and his AVG should be just a bit above league average.

if you don't like PECOTA or ZIPS or CHONE, ok. but PECOTA is the best prediction system out there, gotowarmiussagnes has provided links that show this.

if you bet against it consistently, you're going to be wrong more often than not


Well that's interesting, because he'll by far have the lowest RBI total of any clean-up hitter in baseball. :-b

Also, I never said I "bet against" PECOTA... No need to get snippy now. I simply said that the emphasis placed on certain areas within the system can sometimes create off the wall projections for some players. Obviously I'm not going to bet against a system that is developed by individuals with far more expertise in sabermetrics than I have. I just won't base my entire argument on what PECOTA or any other projection system says. You have to include, at least partially, a human element. That's why most people here say Upton > CBY.
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Re: Chris B. Young vs. BJ Upton (OF Controversy)

Postby makewayhomer » Fri Mar 14, 2008 1:51 pm

Fade2White12 wrote:
makewayhomer wrote:
Fade2White12 wrote: With Iwamura, Crawford, and Pena in front of him, why would Upton batting full time as the clean-up hitter yield only 68 RBI?


b/c he doesnt have a lot of power and his AVG should be just a bit above league average.

if you don't like PECOTA or ZIPS or CHONE, ok. but PECOTA is the best prediction system out there, gotowarmiussagnes has provided links that show this.

if you bet against it consistently, you're going to be wrong more often than not


Well that's interesting, because he'll by far have the lowest RBI total of any clean-up hitter in baseball. :-b

Also, I never said I "bet against" PECOTA... No need to get snippy now. I simply said that the emphasis placed on certain areas within the system can sometimes create off the wall projections for some players. Obviously I'm not going to bet against a system that is developed by individuals with far more expertise in sabermetrics than I have. I just won't base my entire argument on what PECOTA or any other projection system says. You have to include, at least partially, a human element. That's why most people here say Upton > CBY.


didn't mean to get snippy.

if you want to say that Upton as 2b has more value than CBY as an OF, I'm ok with that.

the stats I was presenting were more comparing the guys not considering position (which isn't the worst thing in the world, considering they will be playing the same position this year).

both guys as OF's? I think it's pretty close, b/c I think Upton will be hard pressed to put up some of last years numbers which were lagrely luck driven (like his AVG and AVG w/ RISP (RBI)
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Re: Chris B. Young vs. BJ Upton (OF Controversy)

Postby Yoda » Fri Mar 14, 2008 1:52 pm

makewayhomer wrote:I'll happily wager that Upton's SLG is below .500 this year with any interested parties

his SLG is ok, I didn't mean to say it was bad. MAYBE he'll hit 20 HR's this year. but thats not a lot of power.


What are you basing your opinion on?
age 19 - 2004 .471 AA, .519 AAA, .409 MLB
20 - 2005 .490 AAA
21 - 2006 .394 AAA, .291 MLB
22 - 2007 .508 MLB

He was clearly younger than his competition everywhere he's played in his career yet slugged well over .450 in his MiLB/MLB career at every level except for 2006 which was probalby due to his position changes.

Also, I watched almost every AB last year (thanks to MLBTV) and he has ridiculous bat speed, probably as quick as anyone at his age. As he grows and gains more experience, he will almost definitely hit for more power. The chances of him achieving .500+ SLG/20+ HR are much greater than not going forward.
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Re: Chris B. Young vs. BJ Upton (OF Controversy)

Postby makewayhomer » Fri Mar 14, 2008 2:01 pm

neither PECOTA nor ZIPS nor CHONE thinks he will SLG > .500 in 2008

I tend to side much more with objective prediction systems than subjective ones. is it ok to blend in a human element? of course. but I don't believe in gigantic fudge factors b/c thats what your gut says.

no offense (really) but I would rather trust systems which use years and years of data than someone who says "I watched a bunch of at bats last year and he has fast bat speed".

thats honestly not mean as an insult at all. I just dont think our brains our built for objectivety; instead we project what we feel like projecting.
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Re: Chris B. Young vs. BJ Upton (OF Controversy)

Postby Yoda » Fri Mar 14, 2008 2:17 pm

makewayhomer wrote:neither PECOTA nor ZIPS nor CHONE thinks he will SLG > .500 in 2008

I tend to side much more with objective prediction systems than subjective ones. is it ok to blend in a human element? of course. but I don't believe in gigantic fudge factors b/c thats what your gut says.

no offense (really) but I would rather trust systems which use years and years of data than someone who says "I watched a bunch of at bats last year and he has fast bat speed".

thats honestly not mean as an insult at all. I just dont think our brains our built for objectivety; instead we project what we feel like projecting.


No offense taken whatsoever. I'm looking at primarily his age, progression and pedigree. Watching him all 2007 just confirms all the numbers he put up for me. If you don't like him then don't draft him. I still think you are crazy to take Young over Upton but they are close enough I guess.
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