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Chris B. Young vs. BJ Upton (OF Controversy)

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Re: Chris B. Young vs. BJ Upton (OF Controversy)

Postby makewayhomer » Fri Mar 14, 2008 11:57 am

Fade2White12 wrote:521 ABs for Upton is most definitely on the low side. Being the full-time CF and hitting cleanup or higher all year makes 521 seem very conservative, IMO. I say another 40-50 is more likely.

In regards to his K totals, Upton's career MiLB K rate was 1:5 PAs. In contrast, CBY's was 1:4.5. While not too much of a difference, it doesn't necessarily mean Upton will have the greater K totals. It just as easily could be Young instead.


Could Young end up with a worse K rate? Sure. Is it likely? No. Upton SHOULD K more
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Re: Chris B. Young vs. BJ Upton (OF Controversy)

Postby Billy Gene » Fri Mar 14, 2008 12:03 pm

his 30 hr's should be good for 90 rbi


How many leadoff hitters got 90+ RBI last season? Rollins is the only one I can think of, but there's probably a couple others.

Now how many of those did it by hitting less than .280? And how many of those were in a mediocre offense?

Expecting young to get 90 RBIs from the leadoff spot is kinda silly IMO. If he gets 80 RBI hitting there you're lucky.
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Re: Chris B. Young vs. BJ Upton (OF Controversy)

Postby Fade2White12 » Fri Mar 14, 2008 12:15 pm

Upton has a career BA 20 points higher than Young's in the MiLB. It makes little sense to me to predict such similar numbers in BA. Mostly it's because Chone/Zips/Pecota are extrapolating Upton's poor contact rate last year to predict such a high K rate and low average, which are not representative of his past numbers. But the poster said Upton will strike out more - that isn't necessarily the case. Upton will see an improvement in is CR, and I think it will easily be close. Obviously they both strikeout a lot, so it really doesn't matter, but I wouldn't put the K title on Upton right now.

I also doubt CBY gets 90 RBI, especially leading off. Upton will be hitting cleanup, so his RBI totals will likely be quite high compared to Young's, Rs and HRs will be similar, and the edge in BA and SBs will go to Upton - and then there is the position eligibility.
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Re: Chris B. Young vs. BJ Upton (OF Controversy)

Postby makewayhomer » Fri Mar 14, 2008 12:17 pm

Billy Gene wrote:
his 30 hr's should be good for 90 rbi


How many leadoff hitters got 90+ RBI last season? Rollins is the only one I can think of, but there's probably a couple others.

Now how many of those did it by hitting less than .280? And how many of those were in a mediocre offense?

Expecting young to get 90 RBIs from the leadoff spot is kinda silly IMO. If he gets 80 RBI hitting there you're lucky.


you ignored the part where I mentioned the caveat that he hits higher and eventually gets moved back in the order
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Re: Chris B. Young vs. BJ Upton (OF Controversy)

Postby Fade2White12 » Fri Mar 14, 2008 12:34 pm

Are you talking about this year? If you are, there are no indications that Young will be dropped in the batting order. It looks that it will be Young, Hudson, Jackson, Byrnes in that order. Melvin has even committed to saying that he doesn't want to shuffle the order like he did last year. I agree though, eventually Young will drop to possibly 2nd or 5th, but it won't be this year.
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Re: Chris B. Young vs. BJ Upton (OF Controversy)

Postby makewayhomer » Fri Mar 14, 2008 12:39 pm

Fade2White12 wrote:Upton has a career BA 20 points higher than Young's in the MiLB. It makes little sense to me to predict such similar numbers in BA. .


in both cases the "careers" are tiny sample sizes. you need to look at minor league #'s as well. Upton at .300 last year looks pretty lucky when you look at his history.

Fade2White12 wrote: Mostly it's because Chone/Zips/Pecota are extrapolating Upton's poor contact rate last year to predict such a high K rate and low average, which are not representative of his past numbers.


what past numbers? last year was by far the most time he has spent in mlb. are you refering to minor league #'s? his K rate was pretty poor in his previous stints as well. what was off the charts last year was his BABIP. his HR/F was also way higher than you should expect again, as was his BA with RISP.
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Re: Chris B. Young vs. BJ Upton (OF Controversy)

Postby Fade2White12 » Fri Mar 14, 2008 12:54 pm

makewayhomer wrote:in both cases the "careers" are tiny sample sizes. you need to look at minor league #'s as well. Upton at .300 last year looks pretty lucky when you look at his history.


I was taking into account MiLB numbers... .296 vs .276

makewayhomer wrote:what past numbers? last year was by far the most time he has spent in mlb. are you refering to minor league #'s? his K rate was pretty poor in his previous stints as well. what was off the charts last year was his BABIP


K%
2007 MLB - 32.5%
MiLB Career - 23%

CR
2007 MLB - 67.5%
MiLB Career - 76.7%

These are quite substantial differences - almost 10% in each respective statistic. His K% and CR will be average, not Adam Dunn/Ryan Howard poor.
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Re: Chris B. Young vs. BJ Upton (OF Controversy)

Postby RedSoxNation04 » Fri Mar 14, 2008 12:55 pm

Upton over Young every day
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Re: Chris B. Young vs. BJ Upton (OF Controversy)

Postby makewayhomer » Fri Mar 14, 2008 1:04 pm

Fade2White12 wrote:
These are quite substantial differences - almost 10% in each respective statistic. His K% and CR will be average, not Adam Dunn/Ryan Howard poor.


PECOTA is also forecasting an improvement in his K rate. it's not like PECOTA thinks he will continue to K in 28% of his PA's. his 2008 forecast has him down to 23%, which is just a bit worse than he was 2 years ago (21%)
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Re: Chris B. Young vs. BJ Upton (OF Controversy)

Postby Fade2White12 » Fri Mar 14, 2008 1:21 pm

Personally, I'm not a PECOTA fan. Their reliance and high emphasis on peripheral statistics forecasts players with anomalous peripherals much more negatively than they should. Therefore, I do not purchase it from year to year. As an example, going by the projections you provided, Upton is projected for 90 R and 68 RBI by PECOTA. With Iwamura, Crawford, and Pena in front of him, why would Upton batting full time as the clean-up hitter yield only 68 RBI?

Everything to me, and to most others as relative from his ADP, indicates Upton is the superior player by a fairly large margin. I rather not use a projection system to base my claim, rather to help strengthen it.
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