Chris B. Young vs. BJ Upton (OF Controversy)

[jamastaballa]

In an h2h points league, how different are these guys? Wouldn't it be true that Young may have a larger upside because he's not going to bat .237 for his entire career? I mean, they scored the exact same amount of points last year, but Upton had almost 100 OBP points on him...

Help!

[Snakes Gould]

i think the difference is that upton's value lies with him having 2b eligibility and a higher average.

[jamastaballa]

I guess I see what you mean, but I'm more asking how different you feel like these guys are - I mean, do you expect Upton to be that much better, or could I get by trading Upton and plopping Young into his spot in my OF?

[makewayhomer]

I guess I see what you mean, but I'm more asking how different you feel like these guys are - I mean, do you expect Upton to be that much better, or could I get by trading Upton and plopping Young into his spot in my OF?

i think you are going about it the wrong way. keep upton at 2b. trade away your other 2b

[jamastaballa]

Maybe... I've got Uggla though...

Thanks for your advice, fellas.

[Fade2White12]

I mean, they scored the exact same amount of points last year, but Upton had almost 100 OBP points on him...

Don't forget that BJ had almost 100 fewer ABs than Young. They might have scored the same amount of points, but that's mostly due to CBY having almost 20% more ABs. BJ is much faster, will hit for a much better average, and overall has the highest upside of the two (IMO). I'd still rather have BJ than CBY, even considering their respective ADPs - especially for this year as BJ is 2B/OF eligible.

[J35J]

I mean, they scored the exact same amount of points last year, but Upton had almost 100 OBP points on him...

Don't forget that BJ had almost 100 fewer ABs than Young. They might have scored the same amount of points, but that's mostly due to CBY having almost 20% more ABs. BJ is much faster, will hit for a much better average, and overall has the highest upside of the two (IMO). I'd still rather have BJ than CBY, even considering their respective ADPs - especially for this year as BJ is 2B/OF eligible.

Agreed.

[jamastaballa]

That's even MORE helpful! Thanks again! Totally forgot about the AB's thing... and about 75 more PA's too.

One thing I didn't expect, though, is that Upton still struck out more!

[makewayhomer]

here are the PECOTA's for each guy

AB R HR TB RBI SO SB AVG
566 102 31 296 95 126 26 0.274
521 90 18 232 68 139 31 0.27

(Young is on top)

even considering position, I have Young higher. PECOTA actually sees them hitting for a similar AVG. Young has a lot more power, so he gets a big edge in HR and RBI, and TB's if you count that. Upton will also strike out more, which hurts him. The one place Upton gets an edge is in steals, and even that is close

CHONE sees something similar. the big difference is Young's RBI. his HR/RBI ratio was one of the worst ever, b/c he was hitting leadoff in the NL and his avg was so bad. with a bit better luck, improvement, and moving back in the order, his 30 hr's should be good for 90 rbi

ZIPS is the one system of the 3 which actually thinks Upton will hit for a much higher avg.

[Fade2White12]

521 ABs for Upton is most definitely on the low side. Being the full-time CF and hitting cleanup or higher all year makes 521 seem very conservative, IMO. I say another 40-50 is more likely.

In regards to his K totals, Upton's career MiLB K rate was 1:5 PAs. In contrast, CBY's was 1:4.5. While not too much of a difference, it doesn't necessarily mean Upton will have the greater K totals. It just as easily could be Young instead.