tgalv wrote:i'd just be more concerned about trying to evaluate whether the guy is actually "good" or not. everyone likes to second guess the manager and everyone thinks they can do a better job, but the manage IS trying to win. if asdrubal cabrera is the next roberto alomar and starts raking this year, then he'll find himself in a good position to put up stats. and if some guy with no talent had a hot streak when he got to the bigs and starts off the year in the #2 spot, that situation will quickly change when the world and manager realize he sucks.
I regard this as something you consider only within tiers as a final factor, really. In my original example, for instance, I have to consider Betancourt versus Cabrera. Both are young players with some upside and similar projections. But, their ultimate value is going to vary significantly based on batting order.