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Batting Orders

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Fri Mar 14, 2008 10:21 am

I think some of the most important mistakes in judging play value comefrom not taking proper account of batting order. Right now, for example, I've heard the Mariners are considering moving Betancourt from the bottom of the order to the #2 position, while the Indians are considering move ACabrera from the #2 to the bottom. Both of those could have major impacts on their value, because it changes PAs, runs, and RBIs. (OK, I play in a deep keeper league, so guys like this actually matter to me, but I'm sure you have your own examples!)

So, I like to see a good overview of batting orders. Generally I check rototimes and CBS sportsline.

http://www.rototimes.com/mlb/team/BAL/depthchart

http://www.sportsline.com/mlb/spring/lineups

And I'm glad to see the following article posted today

http://rototimes.com/article.php?article_id=4506

But, what is frustrating is how inaccurate these can be. CBS, for example, still has Baldelli in the 5 hole for the Rays. And, even more subtle issues. I follow the O's closely. The most frequent lineup they used last year had Millar batting cleanup. The most frequent lineup they used this spring has Millar batting cleanup. Yet, rototimes still has him batting 7th.

Anybody got a better source for info? Maybe we should share our inside info in this thread.
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Re: Batting Orders

Postby kemper5 » Fri Mar 14, 2008 12:09 pm

It's hard to get an accurate free site that gives you projected lineups. I go with Baseball Prospectus to see what their projected lineup is within their depth charts, they seem to be the most accurate to me.
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Re: Batting Orders

Postby Pochucker » Fri Mar 14, 2008 12:19 pm

Theres no easy way out on this one --you have to do the work yourself. Read every update and blurb on rotoworld , come in here and ask hometown guys specific questions. Its a fluid situation and managers are fickle and are always changing their minds.
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Re: Batting Orders

Postby Ender » Fri Mar 14, 2008 12:25 pm

Batting orders are a tricky beast. Even if Betancourt bats 2nd he is one cold streak or one Jones hot streak away from being moved to the 8th spot. It gets even harder because managers seem so clueless about batting order in general, like Fukudome batting 5th now when his skillset is so perfect for top of the order.
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Re: Batting Orders

Postby smokin' Aces » Sat Mar 15, 2008 2:47 pm

i think people overthink batting lineups. it is a tough thing to guage though. i mean your 3-4-5 hitters generally are a lock at thier spots. the 1-2 and 8-9 spots are not always but usually your obp and speed guys. imo the misconception of the 8-9 spots being the worst hitters on the team is what shy's us away from those players. the toughest lineup positions for fantasy stats imo is 5-6-7 slots. just how i make it easier for myself in this oh so tough world of predraft stats and rankings. :-D
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Re: Batting Orders

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sat Mar 15, 2008 2:55 pm

The issue is not the quality of the player in those slots, imo. The issue is that where a batter hits changes his value, sometimes significantly. Take Asdrubal Cabrera just for an example. If he bats in the 2 hole in that lineup, he's got a decent shot at 100+ runs and 85-90 RBIs. If he bats 8th, he'll get fewer plate appearances and be surrounded by worse hitters. As a result, he's more likely to be around 65-70 runs and 75-80 RBIs. That's a HUGE difference in his value.
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Re: Batting Orders

Postby bobbing_headz » Sat Mar 15, 2008 3:01 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:The issue is not the quality of the player in those slots, imo. The issue is that where a batter hits changes his value, sometimes significantly. Take Asdrubal Cabrera just for an example. If he bats in the 2 hole in that lineup, he's got a decent shot at 100+ runs and 85-90 RBIs. If he bats 8th, he'll get fewer plate appearances and be surrounded by worse hitters. As a result, he's more likely to be around 65-70 runs and 75-80 RBIs. That's a HUGE difference in his value.


I completely agree but like people have said, at this point in the season it's too hard to gauge where players will bat. Of course you'll know some things for sure (like ARod batting 4th) but outside of the 3-4-5 hitters generally it's just guesses now. That being said, while a player's value will certainly drop if he bats 8th vs. 2nd, you can't change someone's value drastically this early in the season based on that.
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Re: Batting Orders

Postby smokin' Aces » Sat Mar 15, 2008 7:00 pm

this is a great discussion topic because all that is said here is valid. with that said how much does a players value drop? in asdrubal cabrerra's case sure he loses some at bats and as gotowar predicts a 5-10 drop in rbi's. but does it drastically change his value? mabe a little. take curtis granderson last season he was in the1 hole to start the season and about 75% of the year but 25% he spent in the 9 hole mostly due to his inability to hit lefties. but at any rate it really didn't kill his numbers. thats why i think its overthought in pre draft because asdrubal may start the season in the 9 hole but no garantee he stays there. so why throw a wrench in your draft plan on mid to late round guys soley on his lineup position? jmo but mabe by the time this thread finishes i might change my thoughts too. :-S
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Re: Batting Orders

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sat Mar 15, 2008 7:17 pm

Granderson had 25 plate appearances (out of 676) from the 9 hole last year. That's 25 total, not 25%. His value was not impacted because reality was nothing like you imagined.

And he's a good case. Suppose he batted 9th all the time last year? I guarantee you he would notbe ranked as high as he is, because he'd have 5-7 fewer HRs and SBs, 10-20 fewer RBIs, and 30-40 fewer runs.

The same is true for Cabrera. It's not "5 rbis". It's about 10 RBIs AND 30 runs, not to mention 3-5 fewer HRs and SBs.

Add it up, and it's a significant hit in value. In fact, using my keeper league values, it reduces his value about 3-5 standings gain points, moving him from the equivalent of Julio Lugo to the equivalent of Jason Bartlett.

Of course, you cannot predict guys will stay where they are, but as with everything going into a draft, you have to make your best guesses of player's value. Not factoring their likely position into that calculation is a mistake, imo.
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Re: Batting Orders

Postby tgalv » Sun Mar 16, 2008 7:33 am

i'd just be more concerned about trying to evaluate whether the guy is actually "good" or not. everyone likes to second guess the manager and everyone thinks they can do a better job, but the manage IS trying to win. if asdrubal cabrera is the next roberto alomar and starts raking this year, then he'll find himself in a good position to put up stats. and if some guy with no talent had a hot streak when he got to the bigs and starts off the year in the #2 spot, that situation will quickly change when the world and manager realize he sucks.
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