If Jones has been discussed in detail somewhere else, I'll gladly head in that direction to get some opinions, but I'm really struggling with what his value might be in LA after such an anomaly of a 2007. I mean, he was REALLY bad... you know this.
My question is simply this - what is his true value for 2008, with as little "he burned me last year" bias as possible? I'm lost.
10-Team H2H Std. 5x5
R. Martin, G. Atkins, J. Rollins, A. Hill, D. Wright, A. Gordon, E. Renteria, Crawford, M. Ramirez, P. Burrell, N. Markakis, C. Hart
Lincecum, J. Cueto, H. Street, G. Sherrill, M. Capps, AJ Burnett, Putz, B. Myers, Harden, Bedard,
I just don't draft him. He showed up heavier than last year to spring training so it seems likely he isn't too worried about 'playing for a contract'. I listed him as a 9th round pick in a 14 team league on my cheat sheet but he would have to fall to like the 11th or 12th round for me to take him. There are just better risks out there in my opinion.
Andruw's attributing his unusually bad season in '07 because he lost weight during the year. Doesn't seem like the 15 pounds he gained back is helping much either as he's in a very dire slump.
I'd be more comfortable taking a 10th-12th round pick on Andruw as I think his HR total will improve marginally (Dodger Stadium isn't that oppressive of a ballpark for HR's), but he doesn't offer much additional upside either.
I am very experienced in dealing with Andruw, as he has been on my keeper league team for a few years, and I kept him last year with my final keeper spot (mistake). I would tamper the comeback expectations. He showed up to ST overweight, and there doesn't seem to be a desire to get into better playing shape and to improve on last years numbers (at least judging from this year's ST so far). I say, avoid Andruw like the plague in redrafts, and go after the Brad Hawpe's, Delmon Young's, or Shane Victorino's instead.
I've never really liked him even in his good years because he'd pretty much kill your avg. I think his name lead to him being overvalued my almost everybody so he never fell to a spot I felt comfortable drafting him.
As a Mets fan, I've never been able to pass up a good Druw fat joke but as far as fantasy baseball goes I wouldn't put any stock in perceived weight and fitness issues. Visual evidence is worthless. Jones has a big frame and holds his weight awkwardly and last year when he tried to fit his body type into the image people find acceptable, he bombed.
Maine has a good swing for a pitcher but on anything that moves, he has no chance. And if it's a fastball, it has to be up in the zone. Basically, the pitcher has to hit his bat. - Mike Pelfrey
jamastaballa wrote:That's what I'm talking about!!!! Thanks for the help, guys. I'll leave him alone then.
Personally, I think he's one of those guys that people are so down on, that he's become a bit undervalued. No, he'll never hit .300, or even .270, but across the board on FanGraph, the experts -- Bill James, ZiPS, Minor, CHONE, Marcel -- have him raising his AVG to the .250-.260 range and hititng between 30-35 HRs. In other words, they think he'll be more or less back to his old self, minus the atypical 51 HR monstrosity. So, immediately write off Jones if you want, but if you need some power relatively late in your OF, you can likely get Jones due to the fat jokes and otehr pissed off former owners out there who won't even bat an eye at him.
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by jamastaballa » Thu Mar 13, 2008 12:53 pm 
