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Re: STRATEGY!!!!

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sat Mar 15, 2008 1:12 am

OneLoveBoomer wrote:Whatever the "research" is, I do think there is something to the "hot hand" in the short term. If, on a Tuesday or Thursday, I decide to add another batter in an H2H league to keep up with an opponent, I have often had great success with sorting by stats from the last 5 days. I recommend this for sure. Shelton was good for this a couple years back :-b

I wouldn't sit Wright in favor of Encarnacion. One potential difficulty I'll be dealing with this season, however, is what to do with Lastings Milledge. In a league where I'm full and he's on my bench, I'd love to work him in. Will I put him in for Thome or another similar type player when they're in an awful matchup, like against Sabathia or some such pitcher? Yeah probably.


I guarantee that any statistically sound study of your past efforts would show that you lost as often as you won, and on net gained nothing. I have no doubt that many people believe in the hot hand. In fact, we are genetically wired to see it. But, a TON of sound science shows it's nothing more than the same types of patterns you see in coin flips.

Keep in mind that when you sort on recent stats, you may be finding many things that are NOT hot hands. If a guy is playing against teams with lousy pitching staffs or in parks that are good for offense, you may besimply finding those guys, rather than truly playing hot hands.


http://thehothand.blogspot.com/
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Re: STRATEGY!!!!

Postby OneLoveBoomer » Sat Mar 15, 2008 1:18 am

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
OneLoveBoomer wrote:Whatever the "research" is, I do think there is something to the "hot hand" in the short term. If, on a Tuesday or Thursday, I decide to add another batter in an H2H league to keep up with an opponent, I have often had great success with sorting by stats from the last 5 days. I recommend this for sure. Shelton was good for this a couple years back :-b

I wouldn't sit Wright in favor of Encarnacion. One potential difficulty I'll be dealing with this season, however, is what to do with Lastings Milledge. In a league where I'm full and he's on my bench, I'd love to work him in. Will I put him in for Thome or another similar type player when they're in an awful matchup, like against Sabathia or some such pitcher? Yeah probably.


I guarantee that any statistically sound study of your past efforts would show that you lost as often as you won, and on net gained nothing. I have no doubt that many people believe in the hot hand. In fact, we are genetically wired to see it. But, a TON of sound science shows it's nothing more than the same types of patterns you see in coin flips.

Keep in mind that when you sort on recent stats, you may be finding many things that are NOT hot hands. If a guy is playing against teams with lousy pitching staffs or in parks that are good for offense, you may besimply finding those guys, rather than truly playing hot hands.


http://thehothand.blogspot.com/


That's fine. I'm a poker player so I know enough about stats in the aggregate. That said, players can be seeing the ball well and really have their swing going well for a period of time, only to lose it a bit later on. I'm sure there's good research to back up your overall point. But I look for the past 5 days with good success. One-day-only services like FantasySportsLive -- where you pick players for only one day against other teams -- are based on the one day. I look for players that are good overall AND have been good in the past 5 days (among matchups and other variables) before finally picking my guy. I would not equate hitting the ball with flipping a coin, given the human athletic involved. There's such a thing as being in the zone.
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Re: STRATEGY!!!!

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sat Mar 15, 2008 1:29 am

OneLoveBoomer wrote:That's fine. I'm a poker player so I know enough about stats in the aggregate. That said, players can be seeing the ball well and really have their swing going well for a period of time, only to lose it a bit later on. I'm sure there's good research to back up your overall point. But I look for the past 5 days with good success. One-day-only services like FantasySportsLive -- where you pick players for only one day against other teams -- are based on the one day. I look for players that are good overall AND have been good in the past 5 days (among matchups and other variables) before finally picking my guy. I would not equate hitting the ball with flipping a coin, given the human athletic involved. There's such a thing as being in the zone.


Players may definitely be "in the zone", but neither you, nor me, nor the stats can reliably predict when they will enter or leave the zone.
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Re: STRATEGY!!!!

Postby OneLoveBoomer » Sat Mar 15, 2008 1:48 am

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
OneLoveBoomer wrote:That's fine. I'm a poker player so I know enough about stats in the aggregate. That said, players can be seeing the ball well and really have their swing going well for a period of time, only to lose it a bit later on. I'm sure there's good research to back up your overall point. But I look for the past 5 days with good success. One-day-only services like FantasySportsLive -- where you pick players for only one day against other teams -- are based on the one day. I look for players that are good overall AND have been good in the past 5 days (among matchups and other variables) before finally picking my guy. I would not equate hitting the ball with flipping a coin, given the human athletic involved. There's such a thing as being in the zone.


Players may definitely be "in the zone", but neither you, nor me, nor the stats can reliably predict when they will enter or leave the zone.


Agreed. If I pick a player up off the WW for a few days because he's hitting 10/15 with 3HR and 4SB, I'm betting he's in the zone. If I'm wrong, I'm okay with that. :-D
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Re: STRATEGY!!!!

Postby flloyd » Sat Mar 15, 2008 4:31 pm

I quickly learned in my first month of fantasy baseball that playing the hot or cold hand will lead to worse than expected results. I was very impatient with my team and gave recent performance way too much value. Thus I took at Vladimr Guerrero for a day when he was having a bad week early in the season. Of course he ended up going 3 for 6 with a home run, 6 RBIs, 4 Runs and a stolen base (04/19/2003). After that experience and looking at a lot of studies I've agreed with the general research consensus that there is no way to know when a player is going to start or end a hot or cold streak so trying to time it will always lead to less than positive results over the long run.

The problem with streaks is that when you add a hot player to your lineup you've already missed a substantial part of their hot streak and you don't know that it's over until they put up some lousy stats for you and vice versa for players with cold streaks.

I will however adjust my lineup due to advantages that are based on actual, physical effects; such as righty/lefty match ups, pitchers/hitters in Colorado, weaker hitters going up against Peavy in Petco. All of these have positive or negative effects that are reliably and consistently measurable and are a result of actual, physical differences.
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Re: STRATEGY!!!!

Postby bigwords » Sat Mar 15, 2008 6:48 pm

OK, there's two major reasons why I don't believe the strategy is a good idea.

1. I think there's been something criminally left out of the discussion so far: relief pitchers. Your stud player may have a bad matchup against the opposing team's starting pitcher, but you might expect your batter to get 1 or 2 at bats against that team's relief pitcher. Do you really want to leave your superstar on the bench when he hits a 3-run HR off of that reliever? Do you really want that at bat or two that your sub is going to use against the opposing team's shut-down relievers?

2. Waste of opportunity cost: One other aspect that's been ignored is the use of roster spot for the player with the great matchup. Certainly, you're not dropping your superstar. That means you're picking up a guy off of the waiver wire for this spot start and using one of your scarce roster spots. Even for just a day, is that the best use of your roster spot? Some people like to keep prospects with large upside on their bench. Personally, I prefer to use those extra roster spots on pitchers -- either a starting pitcher with a great matchup or a middle reliever who can help your ERA/WHIP during the course of the season.

So, sure, take a look at the math and pretend you spot-started great-matchup batters in place of your superstars. But make sure you account for the two items I give above. On certain occassions, particularly on Mondays and Thursdays with light schedules and in a matchup that's just dreadful, perhaps it works out...but I think the math supports the notion that in general, it's not a good idea and there are much better strategies out there.
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