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STRATEGY!!!!

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Re: STRATEGY!!!!

Postby BronXBombers51 » Thu Mar 13, 2008 3:29 pm

Apollo wrote:
This is a much more reasonable strategy in H2H than in Roto, though I'm not in huge favor of it in either format. In Roto, benching Matt Holliday due to a slump runs the risk of missing out on valuable statistics that he's putting up even during his slump vs replacement, as well as stats you miss out on in the time period after he's out of his slump and you insert him back in your roster vs. replacement. Last year, for example, if you started Matt Holliday every single game, and never removed him from your lineup, he added to your Roto scores .340, 36 HR, 137 RBI, 120 R, 11 SB. In my opinion, benching him during his 'slumps' increases the odds at losing out on his stats than adding those of a replacement level player, in the short run.


I disagree with this attitude. First of all, last season's Matt Holliday is a bad example (though I know you weren't the one who brought him up) because he never had a three-week slump. But say for the sake of argument that you know Matt Holliday will hit .340 with 36 homers, 137 RBI, etc. etc. Now, it's mid-July, and he's mired in a two-week long 8-for-52 slump. You have an average guy -- say young Jeremy Hermida, or maybe Raul Ibanez -- sitting on your bench, and he's batting .360 with 3 homers in the last week. I feel like you have to put him in. Just ride him for a few days. As soon as he puts up a couple 0-fers or Holliday hits a home run, you put the stud back in. You miss out on one good game, tops. There's no risk there.

Sure, you can get .340 with 36 homers by never taking Holliday out. That's great. But why settle for that? If you're careful during slumps, maybe you can get .344 with 39 homers. And every little bit helps.

What are your thoughts, bigh0rt?


Yeah, this was my point.

I didn't mean to insinuate that Holliday had a slump like that last year, I only mentioned him because I took him 1st round this year. That was a bad example. Again, I'm not talking about benching him for any prolonged amount of time. As soon as he picks up a few hits, he's back in the lineup. As Apollo said, you miss one good game, tops.

Pulling him out of the lineup when he's 8 for 52 has as a good a chance at saving you in stats like AVG or HR if he's on a power drought (think Hafner) as missing one great game does at hurting you, I think.
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Re: STRATEGY!!!!

Postby da bears » Thu Mar 13, 2008 3:41 pm

and if you take out a stud player you can also miss out on some big stats and your OF1 slot can end up giving you .335 and 32 hrs instead of .340 and 35 if you take him out of the line up for a day or two. The point people are saying is that you cant predict when slumps or hot streaks will end and if you can this game is really easy.
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Re: STRATEGY!!!!

Postby bigh0rt » Thu Mar 13, 2008 5:38 pm

BronXBombers51 wrote:
Apollo wrote:
This is a much more reasonable strategy in H2H than in Roto, though I'm not in huge favor of it in either format. In Roto, benching Matt Holliday due to a slump runs the risk of missing out on valuable statistics that he's putting up even during his slump vs replacement, as well as stats you miss out on in the time period after he's out of his slump and you insert him back in your roster vs. replacement. Last year, for example, if you started Matt Holliday every single game, and never removed him from your lineup, he added to your Roto scores .340, 36 HR, 137 RBI, 120 R, 11 SB. In my opinion, benching him during his 'slumps' increases the odds at losing out on his stats than adding those of a replacement level player, in the short run.


I disagree with this attitude. First of all, last season's Matt Holliday is a bad example (though I know you weren't the one who brought him up) because he never had a three-week slump. But say for the sake of argument that you know Matt Holliday will hit .340 with 36 homers, 137 RBI, etc. etc. Now, it's mid-July, and he's mired in a two-week long 8-for-52 slump. You have an average guy -- say young Jeremy Hermida, or maybe Raul Ibanez -- sitting on your bench, and he's batting .360 with 3 homers in the last week. I feel like you have to put him in. Just ride him for a few days. As soon as he puts up a couple 0-fers or Holliday hits a home run, you put the stud back in. You miss out on one good game, tops. There's no risk there.

Sure, you can get .340 with 36 homers by never taking Holliday out. That's great. But why settle for that? If you're careful during slumps, maybe you can get .344 with 39 homers. And every little bit helps.

What are your thoughts, bigh0rt?


Yeah, this was my point.

I didn't mean to insinuate that Holliday had a slump like that last year, I only mentioned him because I took him 1st round this year. That was a bad example. Again, I'm not talking about benching him for any prolonged amount of time. As soon as he picks up a few hits, he's back in the lineup. As Apollo said, you miss one good game, tops.

Pulling him out of the lineup when he's 8 for 52 has as a good a chance at saving you in stats like AVG or HR if he's on a power drought (think Hafner) as missing one great game does at hurting you, I think.

This is a game you can play til death, though. He may have a HR sandwiched between 2 bad weeks. Even when he's slumping he'll drive in a run here, score a run there, maybe swipe a bag -- we're talking about someone hitting in the heart of the order here, even if its not specificaly Holliday. Even if Holliday has a month where he bats .200 in 2008, he's going to send a few longballs out, drive some guys in, and score some runs. The risk of pulling him out, missing those stats as well as potentially the beginning of when he picks things up, IMO, far outweighs whoever I'm pulling off my bench to replace him with. Again, in H2H I can see the argument holding a lot more water than in Roto, but I personally wouldn't do it at all. If I'm benching a guy, he's either not in the lineup that day, or I have a pre-designed platoon in place, be it Sit at Home, sit vs RHP, or whatever. I never screw around with micromanaging tinkering, though.
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Re: STRATEGY!!!!

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Thu Mar 13, 2008 5:46 pm

I just don't believe that I have the ability to predict when a player is going to come into or out of a hot streak or slump. So, unless I have some reason to believe that the slump has some cause, like he's playing through an injury, I think the best strategy is just to put your best team on the field each day. in 99% of the cases, my best team is going to include Holliday or Wright, if they are on the squad.
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Re: STRATEGY!!!!

Postby wolv0023 » Thu Mar 13, 2008 6:11 pm

In answer to your original question about sitting a stud: if you have a significant career sample size (>50 ABs) with consistent under-performance (i.e., 5/50 with 20 Ks, with the hits and Ks spread out over the 50 ABs), and can think of a good reason why this is a bad matchup for your hitter (lefty vs. lefty for instance), then I would consider sitting a stud for a hot hand. Otherwise, I think you are just looking at statistical noise, and have a better chance of losing stats than gaining. Kind of like excessive stock market trading ...

Remember, though, that everyone has a different definition of studs - I tend to think they are guys you get in the first 4-5 rounds, so everyone else is fair game for a platoon ...
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Re: STRATEGY!!!!

Postby BitterDodgerFan » Thu Mar 13, 2008 6:24 pm

how about sitting your non-stud lefty against a tough LHP? like hawpe, should he be benched because of the R/L splits in favor of someone who is facing a more favorable matchup? there are some players that will be benched against lefties often, so it works out. or if you have a wily mo pena facing a lefty or matt stairs facing a righty, then this would be the time to play them in favor of someone like hawpe facing a lefty, no?
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Re: STRATEGY!!!!

Postby krunchyfrogg » Thu Mar 13, 2008 7:12 pm

It's a sound strategy as long as you can change lineups daily. Just make sure you take hot/cold streaks into account.

I actually used to check the weather reports for games and sit guys if I thought there might be a rainout!
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Re: STRATEGY!!!!

Postby sblinyy » Thu Mar 13, 2008 7:19 pm

krunchyfrogg wrote:It's a sound strategy as long as you can change lineups daily. Just make sure you take hot/cold streaks into account.

I actually used to check the weather reports for games and sit guys if I thought there might be a rainout!


that seems pointless... I mean it is useful, but it seems like a waste of time for the most part. How many rainouts are there a year anyway? I am not going to check the weather every day to see if there is a rainout, because rainouts are not common.
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Re: STRATEGY!!!!

Postby Dan Charette » Thu Mar 13, 2008 7:36 pm

I always look at who's pitching against my hitters. I usually try to sit my batters when they face Santana, Peavey, or some other top pitcher. I'll play my bench player when he's facing some dud pitcher, when my stud batter is facing an ace. I consider it playing the odds.
And if it's a tough choice on who to bat at a certain position, who's pitching against them will be the most important factor in making my decision.
So this year when Fielder is going against Santana, I'll play Kotchman if he's facing a weak right hander.
Sure once in awhile I get burned . But I feel that the batting average against the pitchers is a good stat to determine the odds of the batters getting hits. If I play the odds, I'll make the correct decision more often than making the wrong one.
I play in daily H2H leagues. I wouldn't do this in weekly leagues.
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Re: STRATEGY!!!!

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Thu Mar 13, 2008 7:39 pm

BitterDodgerFan wrote:how about sitting your non-stud lefty against a tough LHP? like hawpe, should he be benched because of the R/L splits in favor of someone who is facing a more favorable matchup? there are some players that will be benched against lefties often, so it works out. or if you have a wily mo pena facing a lefty or matt stairs facing a righty, then this would be the time to play them in favor of someone like hawpe facing a lefty, no?


Yes, I definitely use L/R matchups for my non-studs. Lefty hitters often drop further than they should in drafts, and that's who I usually round out my bench with. Match-ups based on hot/cold streaks or individual player matchups, however, is a futile exercise, imo.
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