His value keeps rising and by the time opening day rolls around he might be a early "sell high" candidate. He will be facing 4 above average to great lineups in the AL EAST. And looking at the April schedule he will be pitching a lot in smaller hitters' parks. If he isn't sharp out of the gate his value could plummet very quickly.
16 homes games (including March 31st) at Camden 3 at Tex 4 at Chi
Thats 23 of the first 29 games in hitters' parks. And I realize Tex in April is different than Tex in July.
Now I'm not trying to go overboard here. Afterall he is the closer and wouldn't be pitching every day. The ballpark is less of a factor for a closer than SP. But it also might mean he won't notch too many saves if the O's pitching can't give him the lead in the 9th. I got him on the cheap myself but once he is officially named the closer I'm going to start dangling him to the teams without much saves and see if I can't get some value.
BronXBombers51 wrote:Quality of team means very little in determining save opps.
In fact there is a correlation between the amount of wins a team has and the amount of save opps. a team has. There has to be.
If there is a correlation, you are going to need some crazy math to figure it out.
2007 MLB Save Opportunities leaders 1. Washington 2. Milwaukee 3. Toronto 4. Colorado 5. San Diego 6. Arizona 7. Chicago White Sox 8. Detroit 9. Florida 10. Cleveland
2007 MLB Wins leaders 1. Boston 2. Cleveland 3. LA Angels 4. NY Yankees 5. Colorado 6. Arizona 7. Philadelphia 8. San Diego 9. Detroit 10. Seattle
2006 MLB Save Opportunities leaders 1. Oakland 2. San Diego 3. Boston 4. Florida 5. Milwaukee 6. Seattle 7. Atlanta 8. Kansas City 9. Texas 10. Philadelphia
2006 MLB Wins leaders 1. NY Yankees 2. NY Mets 3. Minnesota 4. Detroit 5. Oakland 6. Chicago White Sox 7. LA Angels 8. LA Dodgers 9. San Diego 10. Toronto
Might better have a pencil with a big eraser on it to figure that correlation out.
I saw a post about this just this spring that showed there is definitely a correlation, the spread just isn't all that big. I'll try to dig it up this weekend and work because I forget which site it was on.
Ender wrote:I saw a post about this just this spring that showed there is definitely a correlation, the spread just isn't all that big. I'll try to dig it up this weekend and work because I forget which site it was on.
Yeah that was the one. The more important thing to consider is that teams without many wins tend to get fewer saves by their #1 closer because they don't have as many sure thing closers and if they do they end up trading them mid season a lot. Guys on playoff capable teams are certainly better choices for a closer, but you can't just dump on a guy because he is on a poor team.
BronXBombers51 wrote:Quality of team means very little in determining save opps.
In fact there is a correlation between the amount of wins a team has and the amount of save opps. a team has. There has to be.
If there is a correlation, you are going to need some crazy math to figure it out.
2007 MLB Save Opportunities leaders 1. Washington 2. Milwaukee 3. Toronto 4. Colorado 5. San Diego 6. Arizona 7. Chicago White Sox 8. Detroit 9. Florida 10. Cleveland
2007 MLB Wins leaders 1. Boston 2. Cleveland 3. LA Angels 4. NY Yankees 5. Colorado 6. Arizona 7. Philadelphia 8. San Diego 9. Detroit 10. Seattle
2006 MLB Save Opportunities leaders 1. Oakland 2. San Diego 3. Boston 4. Florida 5. Milwaukee 6. Seattle 7. Atlanta 8. Kansas City 9. Texas 10. Philadelphia
2006 MLB Wins leaders 1. NY Yankees 2. NY Mets 3. Minnesota 4. Detroit 5. Oakland 6. Chicago White Sox 7. LA Angels 8. LA Dodgers 9. San Diego 10. Toronto
Might better have a pencil with a big eraser on it to figure that correlation out.
Well looking at 2007 I see a major correlation already.
5 of the Top 9 teams in wins were also in the Top 10 in save opps.
I agree that there isn't a major correlation but there simply must be one.
RUMP, I will pick three teams who I think will have the most save opps for me and then I will pick three that I think will have the least save opps for you. I will give you odds of 6/4 that my three beat your three. If there is no correlation as you suggest then those odds are astonishingly good and you would obviously be prepared to stake a great deal on it. I did the same a few years back with Lofunzo and my three Boston, New York and Anaheim blew his three Tampa, KC and Pittsburgh out of the water.
Well looking at 2007 I see a major correlation already.
5 of the Top 9 teams in wins were also in the Top 10 in save opps.
I agree that there isn't a major correlation but there simply must be one.
RUMP, I will pick three teams who I think will have the most save opps for me and then I will pick three that I think will have the least save opps for you. I will give you odds of 6/4 that my three beat your three. If there is no correlation as you suggest then those odds are astonishingly good and you would obviously be prepared to stake a great deal on it. I did the same a few years back with Lofunzo and my three Boston, New York and Anaheim blew his three Tampa, KC and Pittsburgh out of the water.
What say you?
Well 3 of the top 4 in wins are not on the saves opp list. Like I said, if there is a correlation, enjoy finding it and showing it to me because it just isn't there. Don't come back with 4 of the top 10 or 5 of the top 10, have something for me to look at. Pick whomever you want, but why do you get to pick the teams for me to have?
Well looking at 2007 I see a major correlation already.
5 of the Top 9 teams in wins were also in the Top 10 in save opps.
I agree that there isn't a major correlation but there simply must be one.
RUMP, I will pick three teams who I think will have the most save opps for me and then I will pick three that I think will have the least save opps for you. I will give you odds of 6/4 that my three beat your three. If there is no correlation as you suggest then those odds are astonishingly good and you would obviously be prepared to stake a great deal on it. I did the same a few years back with Lofunzo and my three Boston, New York and Anaheim blew his three Tampa, KC and Pittsburgh out of the water.
What say you?
Well 3 of the top 4 in wins are not on the saves opp list. Like I said, if there is a correlation, enjoy finding it and showing it to me because it just isn't there. Don't come back with 4 of the top 10 or 5 of the top 10, have something for me to look at. Pick whomever you want, but why do you get to pick the teams for me to have?
because you could pick teams that will win a lot of games
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by JakeTrain72 » Thu Mar 13, 2008 2:13 pm 
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because you could pick teams that will win a lot of games
