I do not get your point....they are all going to be gone in first round, so you either get who falls to you or you pick one of the three with a high pick so there is no value in taking Rollins over the others with a high pick.
Most people feel Rollins peaked last year, that is why he is lower on list.
It's hard to really expect a total repeat of his 2007 numbers when he had over 700 at-bats. You can't expect him to get nearly as many plate appearances to duplicate his numbers. He'll still be good but I'd be weary of making him my #1 player. I'd definitely grab him in the early second round if he were there.
I get your point completely, it's really almost a coin flip between the 3. Considering HanRam's shoulder and loss of Cabrera in the lineup though I'd have to take Reyes first among the group, I figure since he's capable of getting you 70 SB's or so, having him in your lineup will give you a little more flexibility later in the draft since there are decent OFs you can pick up late that will help you boost your RBIs, such as Ibanez and Cuddyer for example. I expect Reyes to hit for a higher average than Rollins and I think last season's difference in RBI's between the two should shrink a bit. Rollins really won me over last year for talking smack at the beginning of the season and then backing it up with a great year, but I really don't expect anyone to take him before the other two. It's a really tough call, but I think Reyes, HanRam, Rollins is your best bet.
On point with what GP said, I'm thinking with the extra PA he racked up, Rollins hit for 30 HR, for a guy whose power ceiling in general lies in more of a 20-25 HR type. Seemed like a good deal of his HR's came with a late-season surge if I recall correctly. Still, I'd think Rollins could be good for a 25 HR, 35-40 SB campaign. I'd be skittish to take him in the late 1st round, but if you pair him with a slugger such as Fielder or Howard, whatever Rollins contributes is nice to fall back on.
I thought a case could be made for Rollins over Reyes right after the season concluded, but considering that Reyes might have regressed a bit and still posted a gaudy SB total, gives hope that he could improve to the late teens-20 HR plateau. That said, I don't think Reyes is as safe a bet as Hanley especially in H2H, when Hanley has the better frame built for power with the speed to boot.
Everyone brings up ABs/Plate appearances for Rollins and I just don't understand this.
I realize that he had an absolute ton last year, but it's not like it was out of character. He had 2.5% more plate appearances in '07 than '06 and he still had 724 PAs back in 2005. The guy hits lead-off for a team with a sick offense...he's going to have a ton of ABs unless he gets hurt.
That all said, I do think the other two guys are above him (though not by much)...primarily due to age. Plus, Reyes had a "down" year last year compared to projections, so he's probably the most likely to exceed expectations for '08.
Rhydderch wrote:Part of it is that Rollins is 30, while Reyes and HanRam are 25. At 25, people can still naturally improve. At 30, you've likely peaked.
All 3 of them are great talents but the age of HanRam and Reyes seems very appealing. One thing against that is a bit in Forecaster suggesting that their studies show that players who come up earlier tend to peak a bit earlier and then decline earlier as well, unless you are talking HOF type of talent/ durability. For this year, I'd agree w/ Reyes and HanRam being a whiff earlier.