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Ichiro: 0-21 in spring training

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Re: Ichiro: 0-21 in spring training

Postby Yoda » Wed Mar 12, 2008 5:25 pm

Ender wrote:His power has slipped, it isn't a good lineup, he kills you in HR and RBI and doesn't dominate Rs for a 2nd round pick. He is only a 30-35 SB guy most likely. He rarely BBs so if his AVG dips basically everything goes.

What all that means is he is a BABIP dip away from being a bust every year. I won't say to stay away from him but having him always scares me. He always goes through at least one slump a year where he is basically worthless and one streak where he seems to get a hit every bat, if that slump is longer than the hot streak you get the .303 AVG from 2005 and with the rest slipping that will destroy his value.


He is so consistent tho and that is what drives up his price. I've never had Ichiro as I never had Crawford because I don't like to pay top dollar for 15 HRs. Other people are willing to pay and that is just fine with me. However, unless he gets hurt, I don't think he will be a complete bust.
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Re: Ichiro: 0-21 in spring training

Postby Russell James » Wed Mar 12, 2008 5:35 pm

Thanks for the feedback, this has been a great read.

HRs and RBIs tend to be overvalued in fantasy and I have never drafted him for that. I am usually always competitive in them and I draft offense based on average and hits. Most of my guys hit 20 HRs. When I do that I rarely feel slumps and a guy on my team is always going off. I don't focus on total stats, instead I try to find guys who have consistent week to week stats and Ichiro has been about as consistent as they come.

I appreciate all the advice and how many are saying to not draft Ichiro so early, but I have to tell ya, I was 2-2 in my H2H leagues last year by implementing a strong pitcher/strong average strategy and Ichiro was a huge part of it. Actually I pretty much dominated the league and rarely lost a weekly matchup.

Anyways, I only need 20 SBs from Ichiro to make my team successful. Everyone I draft steals around 10-20 so anything above that is gravy for me. I get Ichiro because he usually gives me consistent Hits and Runs.

Since Endor mentioned that his Runs may drop this year I will be sure to compensate for that later in the draft.
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Re: Ichiro: 0-21 in spring training

Postby Ender » Wed Mar 12, 2008 5:43 pm

I'm not really saying his runs WILL drop, I mean it is mostly the same lineup as last year. My point was more that if his AVG does drop the runs and SB go with it because he doesn't BB very much. Like I said, I don't mind drafting Suzuki but I'm always worried about him because it is so easy to have a year where your AVG dips and unless he gets a spike elswhere (like he did in 05 with the 15 HR) it can completely destroy his value.
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Re: Ichiro: 0-21 in spring training

Postby Yoda » Wed Mar 12, 2008 5:48 pm

Ender wrote:I'm not really saying his runs WILL drop, I mean it is mostly the same lineup as last year. My point was more that if his AVG does drop the runs and SB go with it because he doesn't BB very much. Like I said, I don't mind drafting Suzuki but I'm always worried about him because it is so easy to have a year where your AVG dips and unless he gets a spike elswhere (like he did in 05 with the 15 HR) it can completely destroy his value.


But how is that any different from power hitters going through a HR drought? i.e. Hafner, Bay in 07.
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Re: Ichiro: 0-21 in spring training

Postby Ender » Wed Mar 12, 2008 5:57 pm

Bay didn't just have a power drought, he didn't run and his AVG dipped 41 points. Hafner yeah the power was mostly what fell but his year last year would be like Suzuki suddenly hitting .275 or something. Hafner hit 1 HR per 22.7 AB last year after hitting 1 per 10.8 the year before.

Hafner is typically a 4 category player, he gives you decent R, great HR, great RBI, terrible SB and a good AVG. In a typical year only around 25-30% of his value or so is in HR(since HR does partially drive the other things).

Suzuki is a 3 stat player, he gives you decent R, terrible HR, terrible RBI, good SB and amazing AVG. In a typical year something like 35-40% of his value is tied up in AVG.

I worry much more about Suzuki's value dropping than a power hitters. Speed guys are riskier in general because even a minor leg injury dries up a big part of their value.

AVG and SB are both young player skills, they generally drop with age much faster than HR and Suzuki is 34 years old this year.

I just don't feel comfortable drafting him in the 2nd round, but it isn't like I'm laughing at people that do. Just not someone I personally would draft that high.
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Re: Ichiro: 0-21 in spring training

Postby Yoda » Wed Mar 12, 2008 6:07 pm

Ender wrote:Bay didn't just have a power drought, he didn't run and his AVG dipped 41 points. Hafner yeah the power was mostly what fell but his year last year would be like Suzuki suddenly hitting .275 or something. Hafner hit 1 HR per 22.7 AB last year after hitting 1 per 10.8 the year before.

Hafner is typically a 4 category player, he gives you decent R, great HR, great RBI, terrible SB and a good AVG. In a typical year only around 25-30% of his value or so is in HR(since HR does partially drive the other things).

Suzuki is a 3 stat player, he gives you decent R, terrible HR, terrible RBI, good SB and amazing AVG. In a typical year something like 35-40% of his value is tied up in AVG.

I worry much more about Suzuki's value dropping than a power hitters. Speed guys are riskier in general because even a minor leg injury dries up a big part of their value.

AVG and SB are both young player skills, they generally drop with age much faster than HR and Suzuki is 34 years old this year.

I just don't feel comfortable drafting him in the 2nd round, but it isn't like I'm laughing at people that do. Just not someone I personally would draft that high.


I think I am just as uncomfortable with power hitters at age 34 as I am with Ichiro. Might be just me.
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Re: Ichiro: 0-21 in spring training

Postby Art Vandelay » Wed Mar 12, 2008 6:35 pm

He has been remarkably consisten when it comes to runs. In five of the last six seasons he's been at either 110 or 111 runs, and 101 the other year. I don't expect his runs to drop at all this year. In fact, I think the Mariners are going to have a pretty good offense, and I think he'll score slightly more than he has the past few years...like 115-120. If you're looking for a good average with runs and stolen bases, nobody is a better sure thing. Barring injury, Ichiro is a virtual lock for at least .305, 100, 30, and more likely to be somewhere around .325, 115, 35.
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Re: Ichiro: 0-21 in spring training

Postby abrage22 » Wed Mar 12, 2008 6:49 pm

I think it was 2 or 3 years ago in the world baseball classic Teixiara had a big slump something like Ichiro's right now, and Teix had a bust year B-)
this could mean something but its only ST
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Re: Ichiro: 0-21 in spring training

Postby BitterDodgerFan » Wed Mar 12, 2008 7:27 pm

c'mon guys it's ichiro we're talking about. i won't worry about him until he does that during the season. BP has never been high on ichiro and always had him to regress.

last season, i think the stupid streak of SBs without CS was causing him to be very careful and selective on the basepaths. i believe even ichiro himself said that streak record was sort of holding him back at times. now that's out of the way, i expect him to take more risks stealing.
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Re: Ichiro: 0-21 in spring training

Postby Russell James » Wed Mar 12, 2008 9:35 pm

Endor you mentioned Jason Bay's horrible year. Do you think he will rebound? I have heard it was because of injury that he struggled.

I do believe Ichiro will drop somewhat, although 34 really isn't that old these days. As long as he doesn't plummet then I can handle it.
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