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Ichiro: 0-21 in spring training

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Re: Ichiro: 0-21 in spring training

Postby The Artful Dodger » Wed Mar 12, 2008 1:05 pm

It's just Spring Training, relax. :-b

Problem I have with drafting Ichiro in the 2nd round is that much of his value is staked into how high of a BA he posts as long as he's in line for 30-40 SB, 100 R. For Ichiro's standards, settling with a BA for .300-310 is a disappointment.
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Re: Ichiro: 0-21 in spring training

Postby Art Vandelay » Wed Mar 12, 2008 1:15 pm

Is it too early for a "Just stop. Seriously."?
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Re: Ichiro: 0-21 in spring training

Postby Russell James » Wed Mar 12, 2008 1:46 pm

It all depends on Draft position when drafting Ichiro.

If I am drafting 12th in a 12 team league then I will draft him at the turn because I don't think I can wait until the 3rd round for him. If I am drafting in the middle of the pack I will wait for the 3rd round because I think I can get him then.

I love Ichiro in all of my leagues because he gives me so much, but I especially love him in the league I am drafting for tonight. Instead of AVG. they count hits in a H2H format. Ichiro dominates in this league, yet people dismiss him for younger legs and talent. He is no longer the 40 SB guy, but he is a 30SB guy and his 200+ hits every year just help me out even more.

I have a mancrush on Ichiro and Harang.
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Re: Ichiro: 0-21 in spring training

Postby thejon » Wed Mar 12, 2008 2:48 pm

Rather have him cold in Spring Training than at the start of the year were it takes him a couple of weeks to get going. You know his 5 to 8 hits a week as compared to his 10 to 14.
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Re: Ichiro: 0-21 in spring training

Postby bigh0rt » Wed Mar 12, 2008 3:30 pm

Art Vandelay wrote:Is it too early for a "Just stop. Seriously."?

Never.
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Re: Ichiro: 0-21 in spring training

Postby The Loveable Losers » Wed Mar 12, 2008 4:52 pm

Russell James wrote:Normally I would mark it off as a slump and "only spring training"

The Baseball Prospectus really worried me when they predicted a regression in his stats.

Well, you guys have eased my anxiety. I now feel comfortable drafting him early.


The writers at Baseball Prospectus are more than willing to admit that PECOTA isn't perfect. PECOTA isn't like some projections out there (Rotowire and BaseballHQ for instance) in that it's a system rather than an opinion. There have been several players where the writers have said, "PECOTA says X but really you have to expect Y". Ichiro is definitely one of those players.
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Re: Ichiro: 0-21 in spring training

Postby Kingctb27 » Wed Mar 12, 2008 5:01 pm

There's not a player in the league that I am more confident in. He will be fine.
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Re: Ichiro: 0-21 in spring training

Postby Ender » Wed Mar 12, 2008 5:05 pm

His power has slipped, it isn't a good lineup, he kills you in HR and RBI and doesn't dominate Rs for a 2nd round pick. He is only a 30-35 SB guy most likely. He rarely BBs so if his AVG dips basically everything goes.

What all that means is he is a BABIP dip away from being a bust every year. I won't say to stay away from him but having him always scares me. He always goes through at least one slump a year where he is basically worthless and one streak where he seems to get a hit every bat, if that slump is longer than the hot streak you get the .303 AVG from 2005 and with the rest slipping that will destroy his value.
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Re: Ichiro: 0-21 in spring training

Postby Steve-o » Wed Mar 12, 2008 5:13 pm

Russell James wrote:Normally I would mark it off as a slump and "only spring training"

The Baseball Prospectus really worried me when they predicted a regression in his stats.

Well, you guys have eased my anxiety. I now feel comfortable drafting him early.


They have always been off with Ichiro. It's an issue they are aware of and was recently brought up in a chat (the quotes was someting like "PECOTA never handles Ichiro well" - I searched the archives and couldn't find it). I think the just of the problem is that BABIP is always so high and there isn't anyone like him so the system regresses him to the mean too much. If someone has the PECOTA's handy form the last few years you'll see his batting average consistently projected lower then it ends up being.

That said, you never draft an aging player whose skillset is based on speed "early".
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Re: Ichiro: 0-21 in spring training

Postby Half Massed » Wed Mar 12, 2008 5:19 pm

The only thing to really pay attention to in Spring Training is position battles. There are endless factors that mitigate the value of any stats any player puts up, and Ichiro is no exception. And besides, Ichiro doesn't exactly have shaky confidence in himself, so it's not like Spring Training will linger on his mind.
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