Russell James wrote:Normally I would mark it off as a slump and "only spring training"
The Baseball Prospectus really worried me when they predicted a regression in his stats.
Well, you guys have eased my anxiety. I now feel comfortable drafting him early.
They have always been off with Ichiro. It's an issue they are aware of and was recently brought up in a chat (the quotes was someting like "PECOTA never handles Ichiro well" - I searched the archives and couldn't find it). I think the just of the problem is that BABIP is always so high and there isn't anyone like him so the system regresses him to the mean too much. If someone has the PECOTA's handy form the last few years you'll see his batting average consistently projected lower then it ends up being.
That said, you never draft an aging player whose skillset is based on speed "early".
In my fridge: Founders Kentucky Breakfast Stout (KBS), Central Waters Peruvian Morning, Bell's Batch 10,000, Dale's Pale Ale, Capital Brewery Amber, New Glarus Moon Man, and Guinness.