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Ichiro: 0-21 in spring training

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Ichiro: 0-21 in spring training

Postby Russell James » Wed Mar 12, 2008 10:14 am

This morning on Sportscenter I saw this stat roll across the screen. "Ichiro 0-21 in Spring Training"

This worries me because Ichiro has been a staple in my team for years. His stats work great for the settings in most of my leagues, but this year I have been hearing some questions regarding him.

First, Baseball Prospectus has projected Ichiro to regress this year. They are usually accurate with their projections even though they admit that Ichiro is hard to project for.

Second, 0-21 in spring training. That just isn't Ichiro like. He can fall into slumps, but an 0-21 slump is scary.

Thirdly, He is older. Ichiro steals around 40 bases a year and I do look for that number to decrease to 30 this year. Typically with baseball players like Ichiro you will see them regress in stats like steals, triples, doubles and homeruns, but they don't lose the skill to hit the baseball.

So should I be concerned with Ichiro. I always reach for Ichiro in the 2nd round because I don't want to miss him. However if he is going to regress this year then maybe he is worth passing up.

What do you guys think.
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Re: Ichiro: 0-21 in spring training

Postby bigh0rt » Wed Mar 12, 2008 10:18 am

I think he'll bat at least .300 even if he bats the entire year blindfolded. 7 seasons, 4700+ AB of .300+ average is enough to sell me. A regression by Ichiro's standards in AVG would be .310, which he's bat below once in his career.
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Re: Ichiro: 0-21 in spring training

Postby Inukchuk » Wed Mar 12, 2008 10:41 am

I'm surprised. For someone who consistently grabs Ichiro in drafts, you of all people should know what you're getting. Even the best players slump now and then. Remember when he was hitting in the 240's in June and August of 05? He still came back to finish out the year at a 331 clip. Just be glad he slumping now, when it doesn't matter...
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Re: Ichiro: 0-21 in spring training

Postby BronXBombers51 » Wed Mar 12, 2008 10:44 am

He's going to regress, but he'll still hit .300 with 30 SB. I still think he's overrated (went last pick 2nd round in my draft) but he certainly has a lot of value if you get him at a reasonable pick.
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Re: Ichiro: 0-21 in spring training

Postby Yoda » Wed Mar 12, 2008 10:48 am

Everyone repeat after me. It's only Spring Training. :-°
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." ~George Carlin
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Re: Ichiro: 0-21 in spring training

Postby Amazinz » Wed Mar 12, 2008 10:57 am

Ichiro wrote:To tell you the truth, some of this is kind of fun. To be in a situation this early, in spring training, and have this kind of a little bit intense environment is something I couldn't experience before. Basically, it's a situation where I need to battle within myself mentally. That's something I haven't experienced this time of the year. ... This is great for me.


:-D

Ichiro is just using this to get in the zone.
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Re: Ichiro: 0-21 in spring training

Postby Russell James » Wed Mar 12, 2008 11:18 am

Normally I would mark it off as a slump and "only spring training"

The Baseball Prospectus really worried me when they predicted a regression in his stats.

Well, you guys have eased my anxiety. I now feel comfortable drafting him early.
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Re: Ichiro: 0-21 in spring training

Postby bigh0rt » Wed Mar 12, 2008 11:20 am

Russell James wrote:Normally I would mark it off as a slump and "only spring training"

The Baseball Prospectus really worried me when they predicted a regression in his stats.

Well, you guys have eased my anxiety. I now feel comfortable drafting him early.

Bill James predicts .325, CHONE .311, Marcel .317, MINER .294, ZiPS .322. Pick your poison.
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Re: Ichiro: 0-21 in spring training

Postby Havok1517 » Wed Mar 12, 2008 12:56 pm

wasn't Sizemore like batting below .100 for the majority of spring training last year? Ichiro is probably working a new approach or dynamic of his game.
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Re: Ichiro: 0-21 in spring training

Postby AussieDodger » Wed Mar 12, 2008 1:02 pm

bigh0rt wrote:
Russell James wrote:Normally I would mark it off as a slump and "only spring training"

The Baseball Prospectus really worried me when they predicted a regression in his stats.

Well, you guys have eased my anxiety. I now feel comfortable drafting him early.

Bill James predicts .325, CHONE .311, Marcel .317, MINER .294, ZiPS .322. Pick your poison.


Has anyone else found MINER to be a "the sky is falling" system compared to some others?
Some of the other systems seem to like some players and not others, but MINER seems to hate everyone.
Just the impression I got.
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