This morning on Sportscenter I saw this stat roll across the screen. "Ichiro 0-21 in Spring Training"
This worries me because Ichiro has been a staple in my team for years. His stats work great for the settings in most of my leagues, but this year I have been hearing some questions regarding him.
First, Baseball Prospectus has projected Ichiro to regress this year. They are usually accurate with their projections even though they admit that Ichiro is hard to project for.
Second, 0-21 in spring training. That just isn't Ichiro like. He can fall into slumps, but an 0-21 slump is scary.
Thirdly, He is older. Ichiro steals around 40 bases a year and I do look for that number to decrease to 30 this year. Typically with baseball players like Ichiro you will see them regress in stats like steals, triples, doubles and homeruns, but they don't lose the skill to hit the baseball.
So should I be concerned with Ichiro. I always reach for Ichiro in the 2nd round because I don't want to miss him. However if he is going to regress this year then maybe he is worth passing up.
I think he'll bat at least .300 even if he bats the entire year blindfolded. 7 seasons, 4700+ AB of .300+ average is enough to sell me. A regression by Ichiro's standards in AVG would be .310, which he's bat below once in his career.
I'm surprised. For someone who consistently grabs Ichiro in drafts, you of all people should know what you're getting. Even the best players slump now and then. Remember when he was hitting in the 240's in June and August of 05? He still came back to finish out the year at a 331 clip. Just be glad he slumping now, when it doesn't matter...
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Ichiro wrote:To tell you the truth, some of this is kind of fun. To be in a situation this early, in spring training, and have this kind of a little bit intense environment is something I couldn't experience before. Basically, it's a situation where I need to battle within myself mentally. That's something I haven't experienced this time of the year. ... This is great for me.
Ichiro is just using this to get in the zone.
Maine has a good swing for a pitcher but on anything that moves, he has no chance. And if it's a fastball, it has to be up in the zone. Basically, the pitcher has to hit his bat. - Mike Pelfrey
Russell James wrote:Normally I would mark it off as a slump and "only spring training"
The Baseball Prospectus really worried me when they predicted a regression in his stats.
Well, you guys have eased my anxiety. I now feel comfortable drafting him early.
Bill James predicts .325, CHONE .311, Marcel .317, MINER .294, ZiPS .322. Pick your poison.
Has anyone else found MINER to be a "the sky is falling" system compared to some others? Some of the other systems seem to like some players and not others, but MINER seems to hate everyone. Just the impression I got.
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