When to draft for Holds? - Fantasy Baseball Cafe 2015 Fantasy Baseball Cafe
100% Deposit Bonus for Cafe Members!

Return to Baseball Leftovers

When to draft for Holds?

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

When to draft for Holds?

Postby bond street » Tue Mar 11, 2008 9:26 pm

Considering a large 28 round draft with Holds as a category (league decided to add Holds this year) when should I start considering drafting Set up guys?

Starting pitching positions:
SP,SP,SP,RP,RP,RP,P,P,P

Thanks for the help
bond street
Softball Supervisor
Softball Supervisor

User avatar

Posts: 87
Joined: 13 Sep 2004
Home Cafe: Football

Re: When to draft for Holds?

Postby horatio » Tue Mar 11, 2008 10:25 pm

I wouldn't draft for holds at all, too many guys that can be had off the waiver wire anytime you like.
horatio
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor

Mock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 826
(Past Year: 2)
Joined: 16 May 2007
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: When to draft for Holds?

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Tue Mar 11, 2008 10:30 pm

horatio wrote:I wouldn't draft for holds at all, too many guys that can be had off the waiver wire anytime you like.


Not true in a 28 round draft, assuming this is 12 team. That draft will run through 336 players, and notiuce that they start 9 pitchers. Without all the details on the league it's hard to say. I play in aholds league that is 16 teams, 25 man rosters. Holders generally become as valuable as other players around round 14-16, or roughly pick 225-250. Tough to tell how that would translate into your leage.
"I don't want to play golf. When I hit a ball, I want someone else to chase it."
GotowarMissAgnes
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy Expert
Posts: 5516
Joined: 12 Dec 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Happy Valley

Re: When to draft for Holds?

Postby Y`s Guy » Tue Mar 11, 2008 10:58 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
horatio wrote:I wouldn't draft for holds at all, too many guys that can be had off the waiver wire anytime you like.


Not true in a 28 round draft, assuming this is 12 team. That draft will run through 336 players, and notiuce that they start 9 pitchers. Without all the details on the league it's hard to say. I play in aholds league that is 16 teams, 25 man rosters. Holders generally become as valuable as other players around round 14-16, or roughly pick 225-250. Tough to tell how that would translate into your leage.


Agree with GTWMA. The top tier HOLDs guys are with a flyer around Round 14. There aren't many who consistently do it each season. A guy like Okajima might be that guy. Or Joba for the season's start. But generally they are all crapshoots.

As for the waiver wire...you have to be lucky to snap up that surprise guy within the first two weeks. I got Zumaya off waivers the night of my draft.
My Friendliness bar...recently shrunk from 11.3 to 10mm long!!
Y`s Guy
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar

Posts: 3227
(Past Year: 276)
Joined: 30 Sep 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: If you're reading this then there's a good chance that I'm with your girlfriend.

Re: When to draft for Holds?

Postby pokerplaya » Tue Mar 11, 2008 11:13 pm

Depends on your league. Probably around round 15-17, but I wouldn't reach if people start drafting them in rounds 14 and lower due to the fact that I feel there would be more viable talent on the board. Wait until the end, and don't let others dictate how you draft.
pokerplaya
Kitchen Staff
Kitchen Staff

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeCafe MusketeerPick 3 Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 12812
(Past Year: 9)
Joined: 18 May 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: When to draft for Holds?

Postby tianyi86 » Wed Mar 12, 2008 12:14 am

I wouldn't mind taking someone like scot shields, joel zumaya, jeremy accardo, or jonathan broxton around round 14-18 in a holds league. These guys add ks, lower your era and whip, gives you some wins and saves, while solidly adding holds.
tianyi86
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor


Posts: 701
Joined: 31 Jul 2005
Home Cafe: Basketball

Re: When to draft for Holds?

Postby horatio » Wed Mar 12, 2008 12:22 am

Whatever makes you happy, my last holds league was 16 teams as well and I never had a problem picking up middle relievers for holds. Personally I'd try to keep my eye out for guys who can get you saves long before looking for holds considering that you'll get basically 1 guy per MLB team that will get saves and possibly up to 3 per team capable of getting a hold on any given night. There were so many candidates for holds (h2h league) that often times when I needed to try to scrap for a few extra holds I'd drop one guy who got a hold one night and look for a different middle reliever on the same team the next night under the logic that if a guy pitched one night the coach was likely to use an alternative middle reliever the next night if a similar situation arose, you'd be surprised how often it worked.
horatio
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor

Mock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 826
(Past Year: 2)
Joined: 16 May 2007
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: When to draft for Holds?

Postby Boyakasha » Wed Mar 12, 2008 9:19 am

I just do it whenever I know I can get the next couple guys I have targeted at any time in the next few rounds. And yeah, it usually happens right around rounds 16-18 in a 12 team league, and involves some of the top holds guys.
Boyakasha
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 1450
(Past Year: 1)
Joined: 25 Oct 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: NYC

Re: When to draft for Holds?

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Wed Mar 12, 2008 12:16 pm

horatio wrote:Whatever makes you happy, my last holds league was 16 teams as well and I never had a problem picking up middle relievers for holds. Personally I'd try to keep my eye out for guys who can get you saves long before looking for holds considering that you'll get basically 1 guy per MLB team that will get saves and possibly up to 3 per team capable of getting a hold on any given night. There were so many candidates for holds (h2h league) that often times when I needed to try to scrap for a few extra holds I'd drop one guy who got a hold one night and look for a different middle reliever on the same team the next night under the logic that if a guy pitched one night the coach was likely to use an alternative middle reliever the next night if a similar situation arose, you'd be surprised how often it worked.


Yes, there's no doubt that you can stay competitive in holds picking guys up off the waiver wire. The question is how much value is provided in other cats.

I was curious about this, and decided to do a little test. Last year, I drafted three holders between round 14 and 20 (pick 225 and 320). I compared the performance of those three holders to the average of holders who ended up ranked in the top 30 of holds who were not drafted in my league--these were guys who were available on waivers in our league. I did throw out MacDougal since I think any rational owner would not have kept him. The comparison group included Bell, Lyon, Sherril, etc. so some quality relievers for sure. My drafted players were Howry, Rauch, and Shields.

Here's how they compared:
(Drafted/Waivers)
ERA: 1.17 versus 1.22
Wins: 18 versus 10
Holds: 86 versus 73
Saves: 14 versus 7
ERA: 3.60 versus 2.94
Ks: 220 versus 164

On a standings gain basis, the drafted players provided between 8 and 9 SGPs over and above the other group, very equivalent to what you get from players typically drafted in those rounds. The difference in WHIP and ERA was smaller, and in the case of ERA the reverse, of what I expected. At least for this one test case, the advantage of the drafted players---other than getting more holds-- seem to the be following :

1. They are more likely to pick up wins. Don't underestimate this. That win difference is worth 5-10 SGPs in many leagues. I think the difference here is that when the gold drafted holders blow the hold, they limit the damage and stay in the game. When their team comes back to score in a later inning, they get the win. The waiver holders get yanked (their IP per game is smaller), so they get fewer win opportunities.

2. Similarly, the drafted holders are more likely to get save opportunities.

3. Finally, the drafted holders are much more likely to have high K rates. Those extra Ks are worth 2-3 SGPs.
"I don't want to play golf. When I hit a ball, I want someone else to chase it."
GotowarMissAgnes
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy Expert
Posts: 5516
Joined: 12 Dec 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Happy Valley

Re: When to draft for Holds?

Postby DaShiz23 » Wed Mar 12, 2008 3:14 pm

i would say holds guys should be drafted near the middle of the closer 'run'. once the top 10 or so closers are gone, some of the good set-up men that are possible closer backups become valuable.
Image
DaShiz23
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
Cafeholic
Posts: 3412
(Past Year: 67)
Joined: 3 Apr 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Don't call it a comeback.


Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 7 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Sleepers Rankings Leagues


  • Fantasy Baseball
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact