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Michael Bourn: An Elite Source of Speed?

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Re: Michael Bourn: An Elite Source of Speed?

Postby Millhouse » Fri May 16, 2008 9:53 am

Ender wrote:Personally I think the groin is still bothering him and it is suppressing his other stats. He does not project as a low AVG hitter, not high AVG either though.

Also batting 8th does not give you fewer good pitches to hit, that is a myth. In most cases pitchers go after the 8 hitter to either let the pitcher lead off the next inning or to keep him out of a bunting situation. When we looked at the data for the Brewers, JJ Hardy had the most pitches against in the zone of anyone on the team and he is batting right before the pitcher.

2 outs and runners on is about the only time you really pitch around the #8 hitter and then only in the first 5-6 innings.


hittable pitches or not, until he (or the roto gods) improves his disgustingly low .277 BAbip -- low, that is, for a guy with his amazing speed -- he's not going to snap out of his funk.
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Re: Michael Bourn: An Elite Source of Speed?

Postby chipper » Fri May 16, 2008 3:34 pm

Ender wrote:When we looked at the data for the Brewers, JJ Hardy had the most pitches against in the zone of anyone on the team and he is batting right before the pitcher.

Ender, Do you think that situation is different since the pitcher hits 8th and Hardy hits 7th?

Millhouse wrote:you think he can't hit now? wait until he moves to the #8 spot and sees ZERO hittable pitches per AB. he's a one category wonder. speed without OB skills, frustrating combo.

Let's say he does see fewer hitable pitches, and therefore earns more walks. Wouldn't that put him on firstbase more and maybe allow him to steal more (I know since the pitcher is up next they probably don't want to run into an out, but just a thought).
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Re: Michael Bourn: An Elite Source of Speed?

Postby siQ_innovation » Fri May 16, 2008 6:26 pm

I think this kid is going to figure out how to get on base, whether its singles or BB or whatevs, he'll figure it out sooner or later. I just feel bad for the people who get frustrated prior to that and drop him cause they just said byebye to about 60 SBs.
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Re: Michael Bourn: An Elite Source of Speed?

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Fri May 16, 2008 9:17 pm

siQ_innovation wrote:I think this kid is going to figure out how to get on base, whether its singles or BB or whatevs, he'll figure it out sooner or later. I just feel bad for the people who get frustrated prior to that and drop him cause they just said byebye to about 60 SBs.



Like I said earlier in the year, I don't get the love for this guy. There's nothing there but SBs. He's never proven himself able to get on base before, so I don't see why he'll suddenly get it. And now that he's heading to the bottom of the order, his value drops even more.

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Re: Michael Bourn: An Elite Source of Speed?

Postby siQ_innovation » Sat May 17, 2008 1:55 am

Got on tonight and stole his 18th base.
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Re: Michael Bourn: An Elite Source of Speed?

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sat May 17, 2008 8:47 am

siQ_innovation wrote:Got on tonight and stole his 18th base.



I'll leap for joy when his OBP cracks .300. Dude's ranked 226th in Yahoo. I'm looking for our 8 page thread on Randy Winn, Matt Stairs, and Gary Matthews, who are all ranked higher than him.

FBB players too often overrate one cat wonders, especially SB guys, who end up doing damage to you on BA, RBIs, or HRs.
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Re: Michael Bourn: An Elite Source of Speed?

Postby Matthias » Sat May 17, 2008 10:21 am

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
siQ_innovation wrote:Got on tonight and stole his 18th base.

I'll leap for joy when his OBP cracks .300. Dude's ranked 226th in Yahoo. I'm looking for our 8 page thread on Randy Winn, Matt Stairs, and Gary Matthews, who are all ranked higher than him.

FBB players too often overrate one cat wonders, especially SB guys, who end up doing damage to you on BA, RBIs, or HRs.

It depends on the size of your roster, obviously, but before his groin injury, he was very playable in my 12-team mixed league which uses SB - CS. He single-handedly was delivering 8 or 9 points in Stolen Bases... I haven't crunched the numbers, but I really doubt that he was costing that much in other stats versus a replacement level OF, especially in leagues with a deeper roster where his contributing BA/OBP aren't as much of an effect.

For April, he was more than a one-cat wonder... he was a one-cat deliverer.

Besides, he has as many HRs on the season as Frenchie. :-B
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Re: Michael Bourn: An Elite Source of Speed?

Postby Sea Dog Fan » Sat May 17, 2008 11:03 am

He's great in a H2H league, he sits on my bench and I put him in whenever I need steals for the week or I'll play him if my opponents is strong in steals, but weak in avg. It's a 10 team league and he doesn't really kill my average that much because I only play him when I need steals. I lead my league in overall batting average, I'm hitting .303 and OPS, which is .886. So far he's helped me to a 4-0-1 record for the SB category. Cabrera, Wright, and Markakis are killing my average more than Bourn because I start them.
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Re: Michael Bourn: An Elite Source of Speed?

Postby Matthias » Sat May 17, 2008 11:44 am

So I went back and looked at it. My league is pretty slugger-friendly... the stats are: AVG, OBP, TB, HR, R + RBI - HR, and SB - CS. So my team is pretty heavy on heavy hitters and (other than Bourn) light on speed. I have... Hamilton, Upton (BJ), Francoeur, Ibanez, Young (Chris B.), Beltran, Votto... you get the idea.

I only played Bourn before his groin injury, basically, so I went in and removed his stats from my totals and then put in pro-rated stats for Matt Kemp and Rick Ankiel as OFers who could've been had at about the same time and are having a decent year. With both of them instead of Bourn, I gained 1 point in AVG and 1 point in OBP. But with Kemp, I lost 7.5 pts (12-team league) in SB - CS and with Ankiel I lost 8. So playing either of them instead of Bourn would have cost at least 5 1/2 pts.

So a one-category wonder can be worth it, depending upon how the rest of your team is set up and the scarcity of the category.
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Re: Michael Bourn: An Elite Source of Speed?

Postby Yoda » Sat May 17, 2008 11:51 am

As some of you already know, I don't like to pay for steals. I Just don't understand why people think that guys like Bourn are valuable.
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