BitterDodgerFan wrote:hell, he's been going 1st round in many leagues actually.
Yeah I'm not a big fan of him in the 1st round. The downside is pretty low because of the SB though. I just want the sure thing in the 1st round.
I have 10th pick in a 14 teamer. Hoping to go Howard and grab Braun on the way back, but that's in my dreams alone I guess.
I have the same pick in my money draft tomorrow night. In the mocks I've had Utley and Cabrera fall to me with the 10th pick one time each but it was usually a choice between Fielder and Pujols (Howard generally has gone 9). On the way back I've had Braun fall to me once, I had Sizemore drop to me once too and Pujol once.
Is it just me, or is Ryan Braun a little overvalued for this year's drafts? He has only played 3/4 of a major league season - sure, he ripped it up, but he could regress. This is not so much a "draft" question more of general pondering over Braun, but being #11 in my draft tomorrow has me questioning whether or not I should buy into the hype surrounding Braun if he falls to me at #14 in the second round. I highly doubt I'll take him in the first round. But is Braun REALLY a late 1st-early 2nd round pick?
Is youth your only concern with him? Or do you get scared over the sophomore slump hype? He has only done good things, and his upside is well worth a second round pick. He also had almost similar stats with miguel cabrera minus 100 or so at bats, and miguel went second overall in my league.
While I have no doubt that his end of season numbers will probably end up looking pretty good, my concern about his draft position focuses on his .282 AVG/.319 OBP vs. RHP last year. Combine that with an over-inflated .450/.516/.964 line vs. LHP and I find myself a little uncomfortable looking at some of the projections made for him. I just don't know quite where he settles in given the extreme numbers vs. LHP. A .964 slugging percentage??? I guess it's easy enough to factor in a full season of at-bats and some regression vs. LHP and come up with some reasonable estimates, but like jpgretzky15, it's still enough to give me pause if he fell to me at that position in the draft. I have thought quite a bit about this possibility and I still don't know what I would do if I didn't get Wright or Cabrera in the first round. Having said that I have no doubt that he is a tremendous talent who might very well remain as a top 20 pick next season.
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I'd say if you're ambivalent, then don't take him that early. Go with a proven player like Aramis or Atkins in a later round if you don't land Wright or M-Cab.
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by BitterDodgerFan » Mon Mar 10, 2008 5:14 pm 
A .964 slugging percentage??? 
I guess it's easy enough to factor in a full season of at-bats and some regression vs. LHP and come up with some reasonable estimates, but like jpgretzky15, it's still enough to give me pause if he fell to me at that position in the draft. I have thought quite a bit about this possibility and I still don't know what I would do if I didn't get Wright or Cabrera in the first round. Having said that I have no doubt that he is a tremendous talent who might very well remain as a top 20 pick next season.
