Ryan Braun: Where to draft? (Merged)

[makewayhomer]

the worst statements in this thread are general ones like "he is bound to regress" and "what comes up must come down" etc etc.

he only played 2/3 of a season last year and hit 34 HR and 15 SB in a great R/RBI lineup. over a full season that is 50 HR, 22 SB with great stats everywhere else. even a "regression" to 80% of those numbers gives him top 10 value, and a full season of those #'s puts him up there with anyone.

plus, he is young and improving - this is the normal order of things. no reason to assume he has peaked yet.

so, I think he is worthy of a top 10 pick. if I had the 8th or 9th picks in a snake draft, I would probably gamble on taking him in the 2nd round, b/c his perceived value is probably less than "my" value of him. most people probably have him as the 4th best 3b on the board, so I would wait until all 3 are gone before I took Braun. Braun in the low teens is the sweet spot.

but to not take him with a mid-late 2nd round pick is giving up tremendous value in my opinion.

[makewayhomer]

please elaborate.

A lot easier to hit with Fielder on deck.

the idea of "protection" is mostly a myth

edit, I see others have touched on this. Baseball Prospectus and other sabr people have written lots of articles about this. read about it in pages 41 and 42 http://books.google.com/books?id=uxdvwQdXbboC&pg=PA42&lpg=PA42&dq=baseball+between+the+numbers+protection&source=web&ots=JAr3Yb6B43&sig=Vtv9dd3KqWssyifr_6SlK58dLGo&hl=en

[gogogadget]

Does anyone think he is as good as his draft position would represent. He was taken in the middle of the second round in my league and I feel like that is a big reach. Will he repeat his numbers from last year?

[pat189]

I don't think he will hit above .300, but I think overall his numbers will be solid.

I think he will hit around 35 hr and steal almost 20 bags.

[BronXBombers51]

I've got him ranked in the 15-17 range on my draft sheet right now. Upper 30s for homeruns, great R/RBI numbers in that lineup, and around 20 steals. I'd say he's definitely worth his draft position.

[Ender]

Does anyone think he is as good as his draft position would represent. He was taken in the middle of the second round in my league and I feel like that is a big reach. Will he repeat his numbers from last year?

If Ryan Braun can be the second player on your team don't hesitate to take him. Having watched him all last year and hearing reports from brewer fans at spring training this year the guy is just a monster. It won't surprise me if next year if he is being drafted before Utley and at least one of the big SS.

35+ HR, 10+ SB, 100+ R/RBI. The biggest question mark is the AVG which I don't think will be over .300 again.

[BillyHallDisciple]

This massive thread on Braun might be of use to you:

viewtopic.php?t=318374

[The River]

I have guys such as Ortiz, Soriano and Crawford all ahead of him. I am not completely convinced yet he will be what most project him to be this season.

[Russell James]

I'm not ready to throw Braun a 2nd round pick when there are more proven players on the board. He may be everything he was last year and more, but I will sit out this year.

[JimmyBaseball]

Aparently this guy has always hit at every level. I see no reason why he can't be a massive force this year.

I have him penciled in to go as my first pick in the 2nd round if he's still there. That means I'll take him with the luck #13 pick if I happen to get the last pick in my league