If you draft Braun and he succeeds, he'll still barely be a value pick in the top 15. But if he tanks, you will be screwed.
This is the great myth I am talking about. If he succeeds how is he not the best value pick in the top 15?
I don't understand how it's a myth. There is very little value to be gained in the first several rounds.
Maine has a good swing for a pitcher but on anything that moves, he has no chance. And if it's a fastball, it has to be up in the zone. Basically, the pitcher has to hit his bat. - Mike Pelfrey
If Braun comes out and hits .320, 40 HR, 120 R, 120 RBI, 20 SB then you gained a whole bunch by taking him 15th over guys like Soriano and Sizemore. Nobody is drafting Braun 'at value' from last season. At value from last season would see him going #1 because of the OF eligibility. People are assuming some regression and that STILL puts him as a top 15 pick. They are also assuming he has legit 25 HR, 15 SB skills for a floor which really minimizes his risk. I still don't like him in the 1st round but I don't have a problem with people drafting him there.
On an interesting side note Yost said he might bat Braun 2nd with Fielder 3rd and Kendall 9th. I said it last year when LaRussa started batting the pitcher 8th and I'll say it again, in 20 years most teams in the NL will be batting the pitcher 8th.
Ender wrote:If Braun comes out and hits .320, 40 HR, 120 R, 120 RBI, 20 SB...
Seems like a big if. That upside doesn't even seem realistic to me. I think there are 4 seasons total that achieve that (Arod, Burks, Walker, Bonds). If we lower those numbers to a more realistic level it makes the argument for guys like Soriano and Sizemore much stronger, from my perspective.
Maine has a good swing for a pitcher but on anything that moves, he has no chance. And if it's a fastball, it has to be up in the zone. Basically, the pitcher has to hit his bat. - Mike Pelfrey
That is roughly what last season ends up projected to a full year. Like I said it isn't what I'm predicting and I don't take him in the 1st round, but that is the upside that we know he has at this point. If he just repeats last year over a full season that is what you get.
PECOTA and BIll james both actually projected him for 40 HR's which was shocking to me since PECOTA always seems down on partial season breakout rookies.
walkoffblast wrote: If you draft Braun and he succeeds, he'll still barely be a value pick in the top 15. But if he tanks, you will be screwed.
This is the great myth I am talking about. If he succeeds how is he not the best value pick in the top 15?
I don't understand how it's a myth. There is very little value to be gained in the first several rounds.
The myth is huge downside and little upside. I never said he was a better value pick than players deeper in the draft. I said his upside is capable of making him the biggest value mover among the top 15. Ask people who drafted Arod in the middle of the first round last year how much value can be gained at the top of the draft as opposed to people who took the consensus sure thing Pujols. Furthermore, if you are going to use numbers to predict a regression then you have to defer to the numbers when looking at his logical production and worst case production levels. Simply by the numbers the idea that Braun is going to completely fall apart is laughable and thanks to his power numbers and all around potential his floor is actually anything but a line that will completely ruin your team. All I really am saying is that I believe people are too negative on Braun based simply on what amounts to their opinion of second year players.
Ender wrote:If Braun comes out and hits .320, 40 HR, 120 R, 120 RBI, 20 SB then you gained a whole bunch by taking him 15th over guys like Soriano and Sizemore. Nobody is drafting Braun 'at value' from last season. At value from last season would see him going #1 because of the OF eligibility. People are assuming some regression and that STILL puts him as a top 15 pick. They are also assuming he has legit 25 HR, 15 SB skills for a floor which really minimizes his risk. I still don't like him in the 1st round but I don't have a problem with people drafting him there.
On an interesting side note Yost said he might bat Braun 2nd with Fielder 3rd and Kendall 9th. I said it last year when LaRussa started batting the pitcher 8th and I'll say it again, in 20 years most teams in the NL will be batting the pitcher 8th.
I think you're right. I can't link it now, but I have read a study showing the most benficial place for an NL-team's worst hitter is 8th.
That diagram didn't work so well for say Howard, Pujols, Fielder, Hanley, Utley, Reyes etc. Studs are studs and you cannot avoid them just because they are risky.
Braun is hitting 4th again today so that looks like the most likely spot for him. Right between Fielder and Hart works for me.
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by Amazinz » Sun Feb 24, 2008 8:51 am 
