I'm with the Cow on how valuable Braun is in a keeper, and given how Pujols erupted some time ago, I don't think Braun should fall too far into the 2nd round regardless of what kind of league you're in.
That said, if you're caught up in upside, one has to be careful about reaching for the guy if similar production can be found in other 3Bs given the position's depth. If Braun is available in the first round and you're at pick 5-8, it might be an unnecessary gamble taking Braun over the likes of Utley or Rollins given that you could conceivably get ARam or Atkins later on. Granted those two guys don't steal, but the other numbers should compare favorably to Braun.
I suppose what I'm trying to say is that hype is exciting, but don't succumb to hype over reason without looking at all your information regarding the current season and its players.
I jumped on Braun in every format last year and rode him to a couple championships. That said, I will not touch him this year. He'd have to fall to the fourth round for me to consider him. I'd rather build a team around consistency and make upside picks in later rounds and off waivers. If you draft Braun and he succeeds, he'll still barely be a value pick in the top 15. But if he tanks, you will be screwed. Odds are he has about a 25% drop off. Meanwhile Ortiz raked in the second half of last year and had knee surgery to fix what ailed him.
Braun is the real deal, but his hype quotient is too high to be worth a second-round pick. Why gamble in a spot where a guy has nowhere to go but down? Grab Ortiz, Soriano or Crawford if they drop to that spot, but I'd advise anyone to avoid Braun in '08.
Is there anything fluffier than a cloud? If there is, I don't want to know about it.
WittyC wrote:I jumped on Braun in every format last year and rode him to a couple championships. That said, I will not touch him this year. He'd have to fall to the fourth round for me to consider him. I'd rather build a team around consistency and make upside picks in later rounds and off waivers. If you draft Braun and he succeeds, he'll still barely be a value pick in the top 15. But if he tanks, you will be screwed. Odds are he has about a 25% drop off. Meanwhile Ortiz raked in the second half of last year and had knee surgery to fix what ailed him.
Braun is the real deal, but his hype quotient is too high to be worth a second-round pick. Why gamble in a spot where a guy has nowhere to go but down? Grab Ortiz, Soriano or Crawford if they drop to that spot, but I'd advise anyone to avoid Braun in '08.
I agree with your general rule about not drafting players making such strides in a single season. It's not like you'd be risking your season by selecting Fielder and Soriano and leaving Braun on the board.
Sometimes the rule needs to be broken. In this case Braun's season was something we haven't seen from a rookie since Pujols and Ichiro. I think Braun is probably a special player just like those guys. If I passed on him at the end of the first/early second no way am I going to let him get past me at the end of the 3rd.
I'd have a tough time keeping him out of my top 20 - and he's probably more like 10th to 15th.
WittyC wrote:I jumped on Braun in every format last year and rode him to a couple championships. That said, I will not touch him this year. He'd have to fall to the fourth round for me to consider him. I'd rather build a team around consistency and make upside picks in later rounds and off waivers. If you draft Braun and he succeeds, he'll still barely be a value pick in the top 15. But if he tanks, you will be screwed. Odds are he has about a 25% drop off. Meanwhile Ortiz raked in the second half of last year and had knee surgery to fix what ailed him.
Braun is the real deal, but his hype quotient is too high to be worth a second-round pick. Why gamble in a spot where a guy has nowhere to go but down? Grab Ortiz, Soriano or Crawford if they drop to that spot, but I'd advise anyone to avoid Braun in '08.
I agree with your general rule about not drafting players making such strides in a single season. It's not like you'd be risking your season by selecting Fielder and Soriano and leaving Braun on the board.
Sometimes the rule needs to be broken. In this case Braun's season was something we haven't seen from a rookie since Pujols and Ichiro. I think Braun is probably a special player just like those guys. If I passed on him at the end of the first/early second no way am I going to let him get past me at the end of the 3rd.
I'd have a tough time keeping him out of my top 20 - and he's probably more like 10th to 15th.
Honestly, I think all of this talk of Braun falling out of the second round is just nonsense. I agree with AllDay here. I think Braun is going to be one of those special players and if you let him go by you at the end of the first or beginning of the 2nd, I really think you'll regret it. No way does he fall into the 3rd round in any league this year...I just don't see it happening.
I have him around .300, 100, 32, 105, 15 projections, which I dont think is too optimistic, considering his Minor league numbers and last season. And that still makes him at the latest the 25th or so pick.
That being said, im not touching him. Hes going around the 14th pick in alot of drafts and at that point the best he will do IMO is make up for his draft pick. I do not think he will be top 10 fantasy material this year.
If he magically falls to me in the 3rd round, ill take him.
If you draft Braun and he succeeds, he'll still barely be a value pick in the top 15. But if he tanks, you will be screwed.
This is the great myth I am talking about. If he succeeds how is he not the best value pick in the top 15? He has quite an upside that is being downplayed. What happens if he *gasp improves in his first full season in the majors. Just how low can he really fall with his skillset?
Odds are he has about a 25% drop off.
First off I love the explanation behind this random assertion but even if this was true Braun would put up better numbers than last year in everything due to increased at bats except avg (apparently we are to believe Braun will hit .243 this year).
Bottom line a worst case scenario healthy season of Braun is much better than he is getting credit for. If you have to put in blanket rules to protect yourself ignoring one year players is fine but that does not mean it is neccesarily the right move in every case.
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by MashinSpuds » Fri Feb 22, 2008 1:15 pm 
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