walkoffblast wrote:All the Braun haters this year have me mystified. His average MIGHT regress to the 290-300 range. True. Yet, is that such a big deal. He will still hit for great power and rbi numbers, in fact the guy is likely to have a positive impact in all 5 categories. Add in the dual position flexibility. As far as I am concerned early second round at the very latest.
I don't think that people hate Braun. More the case that his lefties split is not sustainable or his K rate will drag down his AVG. He is obviously a talented player but he does have faults and until he proves that he can sustain it, most people will continue to pick him apart. Sort of like how Hanley was going into 07.
That seems to be the consensus way of thinking. Wait for a guy to produce at a high level for 2 years before drafting him high. One year of a high level of production just is not enough. This is how I think most fantasy baseball players think. I don't subscribe to that theory. If I see a player I want I draft him. I generally play in keeper leagues and waiting for a guy to prove himself does not work in keeper leagues. One needs to be more aggressive, IMO. Now in a redraft league, the consensus line of thinking is not so bad and in many cases a great idea. I think that you can actually get good value by drafting a guy a year early. Like Hanley Ramirez last year, it did not take a top 3 pick to land him last year even though you got top 3 value. I took Hanley in the 3rd last year and as it turns out it was a great value as he gave me top 3 overall value for a 3rd round pick. I guess thats about it. Of course sometimes drafting a player too soon can be a bad thing as I did draft King Felix too soon 2 years ago, 5th round I think. But I was also able to land Wright and Reyes by drafting them too early a few years ago, of course I foolishly traded both away trying to win... Braun IMO is legit sure his BA may suffer some, but if he hits .290 100 45 120 20, I have done pretty well, even at .280. I guess that wasn't quite it, but now it is.
Last edited by The Cow on Tue Feb 19, 2008 3:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Give Snakes his due!!!! Snakes deserves the fantasy expert icon!!! Go Snakes!!!!
Can't see myself taking him in the early part of the 1st round. If I end up with a late 1st rounder then I would gladly grab him in the 2nd coming back like some have already commented in here if he's the best available.
I was one of those managers who doubted Hanley going into '07 and we all know how that worked out. Because of that I'm probably more inclined to spend the 2nd round pick on Braun if he's there when its my turn. Even with a conservative prediction like Yoda's, I think the numbers justify a 2nd round pick. I don't know that I'd draft him ahead of Ortiz, Soriano or Vlad, but I won't pass on him like I did Hanley last year. Either way, it might not matter as I know at least two other managers in my league who have mentioned that they'd love to grab him first round.
It seems to me people are erring by putting too much stock in what a few faults mean. They mean a few likely regressions as opposed to completely falling apart. I am all for conservative projections but they should be done evenly. If you project Braun conservatively as well as the others around him he would still stand out entering the 2nd round.
I think Braun is worthy of the 1st round this year even though he only has one year of experience. I'm typically skeptical of one year of production being a good projectable foundation, but in Braun's case what gets me over the hump is having watched him play a good bit. His swing is fast, compact, and packs a huge punch. Everything he makes contact with is hit very hard, foul or otherwise. And it's not like he has an obvious hole in his swing that people will figure out soon. Sure the league will adjust, but that's only worth so much on a talnet like Braun. Watching people play is the best way to see beyond the numbers to make a better evaluation of a player. It worked wonders for me with Carlos Zambrano for 3 years before he was a known commodity and I'm willing to trust my eyes again on Braun.
Another thing to consider is that the stats he compiled last year were only over 112 games (plus on PH appearance for a K). If we prorate his numbers over 162 games and cut that 15% you still come out with 112 - 42 - 119 - 18. What's not to have a total man-crush about?
On top of all that, his surrounding cast should provide him with even better opportunities than last year. Weeks should be much better, Hall can improve on a down year, Hart and Hardy have a full year under their belts, and Prince is Prince.
does anyone remember when yost changed his spot in the batting order from 3rd to 4th last year and he was totally tanking? he eventually changed it back to how it was before, but how does the batting order look for 08 and is there anything about his spot in the order that can affect him? and why did that change affect him so much? was it protection or pressure or was the sample size so small we should ignore that?
BitterDodgerFan wrote:does anyone remember when yost changed his spot in the batting order from 3rd to 4th last year and he was totally tanking? he eventually changed it back to how it was before, but how does the batting order look for 08 and is there anything about his spot in the order that can affect him? and why did that change affect him so much? was it protection or pressure or was the sample size so small we should ignore that?
Two words: Prince Fielder.
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." ~George Carlin