I think it all depends on how much risk you want to take during your draft. He is one guy that can be had around pick 15 but could put up top 5 numbers, obviously he can also regress and probably put up top 30-50 numbers also. If you want to risk a high pick on something that isn't proven then go for it but not many like doing that. Personally if he is there when my 2nd round pick comes I have no problem with him being my pick because I don't have a problem with taking a risk like that. But this 4th round talk is crazy, how in the world would you not see value in taking him there???
I don't have the guts to take a second-year player that early, but mid-second is definitely par for the course.
One think I would like about drafting Braun that early: He's one of the few top players to have (or soon have) multi-position eligibility. That's always nice when you can shift gears like that in the draft.
Say you take Braun in the second. Then Aramis Ramirez is still out there in the fourth. You just pencil Braun in to your outfield (he'll be there two weeks after the season starts, and it's a long season), draft A-Ram and you still have your utility slot to play around with. If a top outfielder drops, do the same.
It's hard to put a value on that, but if you've ever had it in a draft, you know it's nice.
"All opinions are not equal. Some are a very great deal more robust, sophisticated and well supported in logic and argument than others." — Douglas Adams (1952-2001)
5 3rd basemen are going in the first 3 rounds. ARod, Wright, Cabrera, Braun, and A. Ram. Braun should fit right after Cabrera. If you miss him and ARam you only have Atkins, Figgins, and Jones left before leftovers. No way he should be left to the 4th. I'd snag him in the 2nd and possibly the first if I was drafting 11th an still could get Ortiz, Howard, or Fielder. Braun for 11th pick, Ortiz for 14 and I'd be set for a long time. Ortiz, Fielder, and Howard can be replaced at first with Teixeria, Morneau, and others. But it is slim at 3B.
madmax391 wrote:5 3rd basemen are going in the first 3 rounds. ARod, Wright, Cabrera, Braun, and A. Ram. Braun should fit right after Cabrera. If you miss him and ARam you only have Atkins, Figgins, and Jones left before leftovers. No way he should be left to the 4th. I'd snag him in the 2nd and possibly the first if I was drafting 11th an still could get Ortiz, Howard, or Fielder. Braun for 11th pick, Ortiz for 14 and I'd be set for a long time. Ortiz, Fielder, and Howard can be replaced at first with Teixeria, Morneau, and others. But it is slim at 3B.
That pretty much sums it up right there. No way I want to get stuck with anyone after Jones, so Braun's value is way higher than say 4th round.
I also feel equally (if not more) comfortable with Braun than I am with someone like Soriano. Just watch them at the plate. Remember, Soriano really only had 1 big year (a contract year at that).
Braun showed the ability to stay strong throughout last year, and has a great lineup around him. And while I probably won't end up drafting him due to someone else will reach about 3-4 picks too high for him, I don't see any problem taking him in the second round (especially considering he'll have the 3B/OF elig, something guys like Soriano, Beltran, Vlad will not).
All the Braun haters this year have me mystified. His average MIGHT regress to the 290-300 range. True. Yet, is that such a big deal. He will still hit for great power and rbi numbers, in fact the guy is likely to have a positive impact in all 5 categories. Add in the dual position flexibility. As far as I am concerned early second round at the very latest.
walkoffblast wrote:All the Braun haters this year have me mystified. His average MIGHT regress to the 290-300 range. True. Yet, is that such a big deal. He will still hit for great power and rbi numbers, in fact the guy is likely to have a positive impact in all 5 categories. Add in the dual position flexibility. As far as I am concerned early second round at the very latest.
I don't think that people hate Braun. More the case that his lefties split is not sustainable or his K rate will drag down his AVG. He is obviously a talented player but he does have faults and until he proves that he can sustain it, most people will continue to pick him apart. Sort of like how Hanley was going into 07.
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." ~George Carlin