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Ryan Braun: Where to draft? (Merged)

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Re: where is the right place to pick Braun?

Postby jlm53089 » Sat Feb 16, 2008 5:04 pm

The Cow wrote:Well I take Braun first round, top 5 perhaps.

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Well that is you.

But personally I would not take him until the 4th round.

There is no way to get that kind of replay value from this guy.
Yea he is good but this will be his 2nd time around and what goes up must come down.
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Re: where is the right place to pick Braun?

Postby Inukchuk » Sat Feb 16, 2008 5:30 pm

NZ Eff wrote:I'm comfortable taking him late in the first round.


I actually agree that his value lies right around there. I think there's so much talk of him not repeating last year's success that he's actually being a bit undervalued in a lot of drafts. I don't see any reason why he can't go at least 90-35-100-15-310 this year, with an upside quite a bit higher.

That being said, if I had a late first rounder, I'd probably pass on him hoping to snag him in the second for great value, as he tends to go around there.
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Re: where is the right place to pick Braun?

Postby abrage22 » Sat Feb 16, 2008 5:38 pm

well in one league im in i got him in the 3rd round, also got carlos lee in the 5th round :-D :-D ;-D unfortunatley the computer took beckett in the 3rd :~(
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Re: where is the right place to pick Braun?

Postby ImTheScientist » Sat Feb 16, 2008 6:04 pm

Late first to second round is where he should go. He has hit at every level. Why can he not continue?
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Re: where is the right place to pick Braun?

Postby The Artful Dodger » Sat Feb 16, 2008 8:13 pm

I'd have no qualms taking Braun in the early second round. I'd give the edge to Johan over Braun and perhaps Soriano over him in a redraft, but quite frankly, I'd seriously mull over taking the chance on Braun over Crawford and Sizemore, two young, emerging talents who have already proven their mettle with a few strong consecutive seasons. I'd surely take him over the likes of Vlad and Beltran.

As for a regression, it's easy to pick on his average regressing. Braun strikes out a little too much than what his high average indicated and thus, in the second half, it had fallen back some. I expect Braun to be more of a .290-300 hitter. Braun won't hit at the meteoric pace as he did in '07 (you're talking about 48 HR and 121 RBI roughly), but I think he can legitimately hit .300 BA/100 R/30 HR/100 RBI/15 SB with possibly the prospects of improving that in the near future. However, the idea that Braun could've had a a career year in his rookie campaign could be disconcerting enough to say you go with the safer pick here (Crawford, Sizemore, maybe even Vlad or Beltran).
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Re: where is the right place to pick Braun?

Postby KCollins1304 » Sat Feb 16, 2008 10:43 pm

I picked him up 20th overall in Yahoo winner's league ahead of Guerrero, Ichiro, Phillips, and Upton. I picked 5th in the first round and would have taken Wright as I thought he was the best player available but I purposely took Holliday thinking that I would have a chance at nabbing Braun when he came back around in the 2nd.
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Re: where is the right place to pick Braun?

Postby The Cow » Sun Feb 17, 2008 12:09 am

KCollins1304 wrote:I picked him up 20th overall in Yahoo winner's league ahead of Guerrero, Ichiro, Phillips, and Upton. I picked 5th in the first round and would have taken Wright as I thought he was the best player available but I purposely took Holliday thinking that I would have a chance at nabbing Braun when he came back around in the 2nd.


Well with Braun moving to LF you could have drafted Wright. Braun will be OF eligible after 5 games. Nothing wrong with Holliday though.

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Re: where is the right place to pick Braun?

Postby The Cow » Sun Feb 17, 2008 12:16 am

Inukchuk wrote:
NZ Eff wrote:I'm comfortable taking him late in the first round.


I actually agree that his value lies right around there. I think there's so much talk of him not repeating last year's success that he's actually being a bit undervalued in a lot of drafts. I don't see any reason why he can't go at least 90-35-100-15-310 this year, with an upside quite a bit higher.

That being said, if I had a late first rounder, I'd probably pass on him hoping to snag him in the second for great value, as he tends to go around there.


Braun does not have to hit as well as last year to merit a top 5 pick. Braun DEFINITELY does not have to hit as good as last year to merit a 3rd round pick. There is a ton of talk about Braun regressing which is very possible. There is zero talk about Braun improving though? Braun will be hard pressed to match his pace from last year, but if he comes close to that well you have yourself a gem. Now could Braun improve? Sure he can, not sure that he will, but I would not rule it out. One area where Braun can improve without much effort is SBs. Braun is a rare bird that has the ability to hit .300 110 50 130 20 and you don't let someone like that last until round 4! Braun should not fall out of round 2 a the absolute latest in any draft.

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Re: where is the right place to pick Braun?

Postby abrage22 » Sun Feb 17, 2008 12:54 am

jlm53089 wrote:
The Cow wrote:Well I take Braun first round, top 5 perhaps.

The Cow


Well that is you.

But personally I would not take him until the 4th round.

There is no way to get that kind of replay value from this guy.
Yea he is good but this will be his 2nd time around and what goes up must come down.


yeah i agree with jlm, i don't even know if he was still availiable in the 4th if i would take him, i just don't see him putting up great stats when u can get a proven player. i'd rather just watch someone else draft him...
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Re: where is the right place to pick Braun?

Postby Ender » Sun Feb 17, 2008 1:27 am

I don't usually say stuff like this, but if you would pass on Braun in the 4th round you are not playing the game well. He is a no brainer in the 4th round. There is absolutely no excuse to pass on him in the 4th round.

If you are being that risk adverse you'll never win in a good league.

Really Braunis not a bum, it was not a surprise that he hit well last year. The lowest healthy projection I can imagine is something like .275 AVG, 85 R, 25 HR, 85 RBI, 10 SB. That would be a disaster year for him given his potential and his year last year. Those are something like round 6 stats. So you are skipping that floor in the 4th round when his ceiling has already been established as top end 1st round? No thanks.
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