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Do You Use PFM During your Auction/Draft?

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Re: Do You Use PFM During your Auction/Draft?

Postby makewayhomer » Thu Mar 13, 2008 8:42 am

The Loveable Losers wrote:
jfg wrote:You have to be careful not to wait too long though. I usually average out PECOTA and Forecaster with a some of my own thoughts and that gives me a good cheat sheet that balances out PECOTA's craziness with Shandler's craziness and I get the players I want above their ADP but not too far above. It's not scientific but I like how it's worked.

I take it a few steps further and mix in Rotowire (for another random guy's craziness), Zips, and Marcels. I find it gives you a nice blend of potential ability versus past results and prevents you from overdrafting rookies/young players since Marcels and I think Zips as well have a healthy regression to league average for young players.

by adding in every projection system you wont get improved results; in fact they will probably get worse.
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Re: Do You Use PFM During your Auction/Draft?

Postby The Loveable Losers » Thu Mar 13, 2008 9:45 am

jfg wrote:I think that would really water down Shandler and PECOTA though assuming you're making one big cheat sheet. I don't want to take out too much of the craziness!

I tried it one year with just Shandler/PECOTA and I had to constantly ignore my own cheat sheet because of the irrational exuberance. I'd rather have a milquetoast cheat sheet and generate my own irrationality. Plus with my sheet I have it set up where I can change the weights so if I want to go to the crazy side I just bump Shandler/PECOTA up in relevance and bump down the 'boring' projections.
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