Fantasy Baseball Cafe Forums

by **Charbear** » Sun Mar 09, 2008 5:04 pm

New to PECOTA and PFM. I understand how the two interact. I think I understand that many use the PECOTA Weighted Means data as a guide and many also download the PFM data.

What I'd like to know is do some/most/few of you with access to PFM actually use it during your auction or draft?

I know there are a lot of very experienced people on FBC. I apprecaite your thoughts and discussion. Thanks!

by **makewayhomer** » Mon Mar 10, 2008 4:13 pm

I use the static numbers, I don't update it/use inflation.

by **Steve-o** » Mon Mar 10, 2008 6:28 pm

Charbear wrote:What I'd like to know is do some/most/few of you with access to PFM actually use it during your auction or draft?

Nope. The PFM doesn't take into account the average draft position so you would end up taking guys way way earlier than you would need to. For example, PECOTA thinks Milledge is 8th round value (or better). If you took him in the 8th round, you'd be missing out on someone who was perceived to have value in the eighth round, and still be able to take Milledge in Round 18-20. That's why ADP is so crucial in drafting. It's more about when you can obtain value that obtaining the value.

Here's a fairly decent example of what you should be doing.

by **jfg** » Mon Mar 10, 2008 7:13 pm

You have to be careful not to wait too long though. I usually average out PECOTA and Forecaster with a some of my own thoughts and that gives me a good cheat sheet that balances out PECOTA's craziness with Shandler's craziness and I get the players I want above their ADP but not too far above. It's not scientific but I like how it's worked.

As for using the PFM application, I've never actually used the draft day features but that's mainly because my money league is a straight draft.

by **Steve-o** » Mon Mar 10, 2008 9:30 pm

jfg wrote:You have to be careful not to wait too long though. ... I get the players I want above their ADP but not too far above.

That's the key. ADP means crap if you're not also looking at a standard deviation of the same.

by **Charbear** » Tue Mar 11, 2008 11:44 am

Great info and input. Thanks to all who replied.

Does anyone use the PFM, with inflation, during their auction. I can see where that would be a great benefit based on who has been taken, the $$$ spent, position scarcity, playing time, etc. I've used similar programs in football and basketball.

Thoughts? Experiences? Recommendations?

Great site. The Forums are tremendous!

by **makewayhomer** » Wed Mar 12, 2008 9:57 am

Steve-o wrote:
Charbear wrote:What I'd like to know is do some/most/few of you with access to PFM actually use it during your auction or draft?

Nope. The PFM doesn't take into account the average draft position so you would end up taking guys way way earlier than you would need to. For example, PECOTA thinks Milledge is 8th round value (or better). If you took him in the 8th round, you'd be missing out on someone who was perceived to have value in the eighth round, and still be able to take Milledge in Round 18-20. That's why ADP is so crucial in drafting. It's more about when you can obtain value that obtaining the value.

Here's a fairly decent example of what you should be doing.

this is true, but I think the OP was more talking about auction drafts. here, using the PFM as a drafting tool is much more appropriate I think.

by **makewayhomer** » Wed Mar 12, 2008 10:01 am

Charbear wrote:Great info and input. Thanks to all who replied.

Does anyone use the PFM, with inflation, during their auction. I can see where that would be a great benefit based on who has been taken, the $$$ spent, position scarcity, playing time, etc. I've used similar programs in football and basketball.

Thoughts? Experiences? Recommendations?

Great site. The Forums are tremendous!

I agree, I just think the interface is super clunky to be used in real time. I broke down and bought rotolab, and spent hours fiddling with the projections to get it similar to PFM. I'll use rotolab during the draft, and I think this is way, way better than PFM as a draft tool.

plus, my draft is live, and I'm not sure what the deal with interent connection will be. you don't want no/slow internet connection if you're using pfm

by **The Loveable Losers** » Wed Mar 12, 2008 5:00 pm

jfg wrote:You have to be careful not to wait too long though. I usually average out PECOTA and Forecaster with a some of my own thoughts and that gives me a good cheat sheet that balances out PECOTA's craziness with Shandler's craziness and I get the players I want above their ADP but not too far above. It's not scientific but I like how it's worked.

I take it a few steps further and mix in Rotowire (for another random guy's craziness), Zips, and Marcels. I find it gives you a nice blend of potential ability versus past results and prevents you from overdrafting rookies/young players since Marcels and I think Zips as well have a healthy regression to league average for young players.

by **jfg** » Wed Mar 12, 2008 11:35 pm

I think that would really water down Shandler and PECOTA though assuming you're making one big cheat sheet. I don't want to take out too much of the craziness!