I pick 11th and was getting excited that people were backing off. If he stays healthy, he is the steal of most drafts. Anywhere lower than 2nd in a draft (if you get a ful lseason from him) is too low. Of course that is a huuuuge if.
Pujols is one of my keepers, but I'm still worried about him lasting throught the whole season. Even if they can maintain it so he can play, the Cards will suck this year and I think he'll opt for surgery by the All-Star break. If he keeps having a good spring, i think i will trade him early in the season and try to get a decent 1B and possible a decent pitcher thrown in....
They are saying July 31st is the cutoff date to get the surgery and still make it back after the 8 month recovery period.
So if he gets the surgery on the "last" day, then you have him for April, May, June, and July. You'd have to find a fill-in for August and September. Shouldn't be that hard especially in keeper leagues or if you haven't drafted yet, pick up a guy w/ multiple position eligibility for your future 2 month 1st basemen.
Pujols is a great player but I think he's someone you want to avoid unless he realy falls to you- maybe early second round. Half a season of Pujols in a head-to-head league is practically worthless because you don't have him at all when you need him. Most people on these threads are pretty knowledgable and I don't think anyone needs to take a huge risk on Pujols with an early pick- just play it straight and take stud producer with less risk- there's no sense to put yourself in the hole by taking a shot on Pujols.
I think the original post was contemplating taking Pujols with the second pick- I think that is a real, real bad idea- take Hanley or Reyes or David Wright. There are plenty of good 3Bs (A-Rod, Wright, Braun, Zimmerman, M Cabrera, Figgins, Atkins, C Jones etc), so I'd probably take Hanley with the #2 pick if I had it. Wright is great, I just rank him at #3 or #4 overall
I like this outlook. In a shallow league, if the price is right, I'd take Pujols in Round 2 or 3. In a shallower league where you can find a replacement at 1b (maybe 10-team mixed), you can still compete if Pujols plays only 1/2 of a season. A half season of .325, 15-20HR and 55RBI might be enough to keep you competitive if you have to replace him after surgery. On the other hand, if he plays a full season and you get him in Round 2 or 3, then things are looking GREAT.
The debate is whether you take him in the late 1st or early 2nd round. Most people agree 2nd round. There is ABSOLUTELY NO WAY you take a pick with his risk factor with the #2 pick overall. If you're in a 12-team snake draft, that means if he goes down, your best player was taken with the 23rd pick. That's not a risk worth taking! Shouldn't even be a thought.
boston_massacre wrote:The debate is whether you take him in the late 1st or early 2nd round. Most people agree 2nd round. There is ABSOLUTELY NO WAY you take a pick with his risk factor with the #2 pick overall. If you're in a 12-team snake draft, that means if he goes down, your best player was taken with the 23rd pick. That's not a risk worth taking! Shouldn't even be a thought.
Agreed. But there is big upside there if you get him with that 23rd pick. People are making this into a bigger deal than it is. You wait, if the value is good take him and hope for the best... that's all there is to it.