List of players that will make it to superstar this season

[Ender]

Bedard showed signs of improvement in 2006 that led to thinking he would break out. It was in the number of dominant vs disaster starts.

I like Loewen ok as a deep sleeper but he needs a full year in the majors before I think he breaks out in any way.

As for Fukudome I think he is more likely to become a baseball superstar than a fantasy superstar. Doubles and walks just aren't as sexy in fantasy as in real baseball.

[HOOTIE]

King Felix
Lincecum
Hart
Weeks
Zimmerman
Rios
Markakis

[jake_harv88]

So you actually think he's going to have a bedard-lite season? He's already had issues walking batters in spring training

You can lose a hell of a lot of money trying to predict when/if pitchers will break out. Despite what Yoda says Loewen has been MUCH healthier than Bedard ever was coming through the minors. In 2006, he pitched 112 completely healthy innings in the majors, after pitching 70+ healthy innings in the minors. EVERY pitcher has injuries all the time. It's rare for any pitcher between the ages of 21 and 27 to not miss a good half season or more to injury.

And his performance to this point is very similar to Bedard's. But, that's still not enough to know whether he can or will make the leap. I would just keep my eye on him. I believe that sometime in the next 1-2 years he has a good probability to become a #1-2 starter. He's a high GB % (about 50%) and already has a K/9>7.5. All he needs to do is bring his BB/9 down to 3.5 or less, and he'll be there. And he's made steady progress in reducing that BB/9 throughout each year.

He's coming off an injury, so I am not surprised at all that he's wild so far. It will take him some time to get back into gear. But, he's clearly got the stuff to be a dominating pitcher.

I think I'll come to GTWMA's rescue here, he seems to be being attacked from all angles. I believe the initial statement is that Loewen will break into the top 150 players this year. Thats not totally ridiculous. Personally I dont think loewen has as much talent as bedard and I dont really see loewen as much more than a number 2 starter. He made great progress in the minor and was relatively effective in the majors for the first month or so. I definitely dont see him as an injury risk. If I recall reports came out last year around the time that loewen was injured that the Orioles were letting him pitch with forearm pain for about a month. That sounds more like mis-use than injury prone. However, I think the orioles will be more careful this time around. We have new management and a new game plan. And for the first time in a while we are semi rebuilding. I dont see the orioles pushing loewen the way they did last year...

I dont think you can definitely say he'll "breakout" this year, but there is certainly the possibility and the statistical evidence has been presented as such. When loewen is going in rounds 18,19,20...why not take the risk?

Great work GTWMA love the stuff

[jake_harv88]

King Felix
Lincecum
Hart
Weeks
Zimmerman
Rios
Markakis

Weeks would have to supplement is .260 BA alot to become a "superstar" this year...

[Ender]

Weeks hit .289 in the minors. If his wrist is really healed all the way he will eventually be a .275-.290 hitter in the majors. Yeah he Ks too much but he the BBs and powers make up for a bit in his xAVG. He could easily put up Soriano type numbers sometime in the next couple years, only with a ton more BBs so more value in real baseball.

I don't know if I buy that this is the year though, his development has been stunted with injuries and it might take him another year to really break out.

[jake_harv88]

Weeks hit .289 in the minors. If his wrist is really healed all the way he will eventually be a .275-.290 hitter in the majors. Yeah he Ks too much but he the BBs and powers make up for a bit in his xAVG. He could easily put up Soriano type numbers sometime in the next couple years, only with a ton more BBs so more value in real baseball.

I don't know if I buy that this is the year though, his development has been stunted with injuries and it might take him another year to really break out.

I'm going to assume you mean the 30-30 Soriano and not the 40-40 Soriano. I dont know if I ever see Weeks hitting 30 Hrs but I'm sure he'll come close some year. If weeks can hit .280 and go 100/25/80/30 he would certainly be a top value player, but if he's hitting .260 hes gonna have to hit a lot more hrs and steal a lot more bases than that...

[GotowarMissAgnes]

Lowene has a 5.22 BB/9 in 329.2 IP in the Minors. Bedard has a 3.05 BB/9 in 342.1 IP. Nice try though.

Is that adjusted for age and level of play?

Of course not.

To be clear, Loewen is likely to have a higher BB/9 than Bedard. But, your simple comparison ignores the fact that at every Loewen was 1-3 years younger than Bedard. To recount the history:

At age 20 AL was in A ball, and had a 6.48 BB/9
At age 20 EB was in rookie ball (2 levels below AL) and had a BB/9 of 4.03

At age 21 AL was in A+ ball and had a BB/9 of 5.45
At age 21 EB was in A ball (1 level below AL) and had a BB/9 of 2.83

At age 22 AL was in AA/AAA/MLB. In AA/AAA he had a BB/9 of 3.67. In the majors he had a BB/9 of 4.96. Notice that he jumped not 1, not 2, but THREE levels and still improved his BB/9.

At age 22 EB was in A+ and had a BB/9 of 2.43

Let's keep this going to show some other key points.
At age 23 AL was injured.
At age 23 EB was in AA. He had a BB/9 of 3.91. Notice that a year older than Loewen, Bedard was unable to match his BB/9 in the high minor leagues.

At age 24 Bedard was injured.

At age 25 EB was in MLB. He had a BB/9 of 4.65 Notice that despite the fact that he was 3 years older than AL when they each cleared 100 IP in the majors, EB's BB/9 was just barely less than AL's

At age 26 EB brings his BB/9 down to 3.62
At age 27 EB brings his BB/9 down to 3.16
At age 28 EB brings his BB/9 down to 2.81.

Now, you can never predict with certainty how a player is going to adjust and progress. But, this notion that AL is completely different than EB ignores the facts. I guarantee you that neither Yoda nor anyone else was predicting where Bedard would be in 2006-07 in 2004. AL showed in 180+ IP as a 22 year old that he could achieve the levels of control that EB did as a 25 year old. The question is whether he can recover from the injury the way Bedard did and take the necessary steps to continue to improve his control. But, the facts show that prior to last year, AL was AHEAD of EB in development at age 22.

[Steve-o]

Weeks hit .289 in the minors. If his wrist is really healed all the way he will eventually be a .275-.290 hitter in the majors. Yeah he Ks too much but he the BBs and powers make up for a bit in his xAVG. He could easily put up Soriano type numbers sometime in the next couple years, only with a ton more BBs so more value in real baseball.

I don't know if I buy that this is the year though, his development has been stunted with injuries and it might take him another year to really break out.

I'm going to assume you mean the 30-30 Soriano and not the 40-40 Soriano. I dont know if I ever see Weeks hitting 30 Hrs but I'm sure he'll come close some year. If weeks can hit .280 and go 100/25/80/30 he would certainly be a top value player, but if he's hitting .260 hes gonna have to hit a lot more hrs and steal a lot more bases than that...

I think he's got 40 HR power (but he certainly wont obtain that this year). He's got wrist power and bat speed like Sheffield. I also seem to recall about 5 years ago his minor league coach said he had more power potential than Fielder.

[GotowarMissAgnes]

Bedard showed signs of improvement in 2006 that led to thinking he would break out. It was in the number of dominant vs disaster starts.

I like Loewen ok as a deep sleeper but he needs a full year in the majors before I think he breaks out in any way.

As for Fukudome I think he is more likely to become a baseball superstar than a fantasy superstar. Doubles and walks just aren't as sexy in fantasy as in real baseball.

I agree with that. If he bats 2 or 3, I see a guy who bats .285 combines for 185-200 runs and RBIs, 15-20 HRs and 15-20 SBs. That's a pretty sweet combo for FBB, too.

[Yoda]

I guarantee you that neither Yoda nor anyone else was predicting where Bedard would be in 2006-07 in 2004.

I just did a quick search on my posts and found this:

Some of the 'young' guys I like for this year: Harden, Sabathia, Bonderman, Webb, Willis, Kazmir, Bedard, Lowry, Riley, Bush...

LINK

1. 2005 was a breakthrough year for Bedard, staying healthy and posting an ERA of 4.00.
2. 2005 was also a major breakout season for Harden who joined the elites.
3. Post ASB 2005 was a major breakthrough for CC, finally started to realize his full potential, posting 3.54 ERA, 1.18 WHIP.
4. Willis also broke out and had a career year in 2005.
5. Kazmir also enjoyed a major breakthrough in 2005 although he didn't truly breakout until 2006.

Bonderman didn't breakthrough until 2006 so I was a year early. Webb didn't truly breakout until 2006 but improved in 2005, cutting his BB by more than a half.

So of the 10 guys I listed that day, more than half of them had a breakthrough or a breakout season and probably all of those guys were middle to late picks. So yeah, I think I made some good calls in the past.

I am not going to further debate Loewen with you since I don't want to end up in a pissing match. I just find it hilarious that I am getting lectured by someone who thinks pedigree is not important in evaluating minor leaguers. Have a great day.