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What are your thoughts on Lastings Milledge?

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Re: What are your thoughts on Lastings Milledge?

Postby mak1277 » Wed Mar 12, 2008 8:37 am

Take a look at Milledge's 2007 stats compared to Corey Hart's 2006 stats. Consider, then, that Milledge was a MUCH more highly regarded prospect than Hart. Finally, take into account that Milledge is a couple years younger.

Why can't Milledge put up a Corey Hart type of year this year? I see no reason why this is not possible.
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Re: What are your thoughts on Lastings Milledge?

Postby High Heater » Wed Mar 12, 2008 8:49 am

mak1277 wrote:Take a look at Milledge's 2007 stats compared to Corey Hart's 2006 stats. Consider, then, that Milledge was a MUCH more highly regarded prospect than Hart. Finally, take into account that Milledge is a couple years younger.

Why can't Milledge put up a Corey Hart type of year this year? I see no reason why this is not possible.


i agree as well.... maybe not to the extent with that much power this early but close imo
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Re: What are your thoughts on Lastings Milledge?

Postby Yoda » Wed Mar 12, 2008 8:57 am

mak1277 wrote:Take a look at Milledge's 2007 stats compared to Corey Hart's 2006 stats. Consider, then, that Milledge was a MUCH more highly regarded prospect than Hart. Finally, take into account that Milledge is a couple years younger.

Why can't Milledge put up a Corey Hart type of year this year? I see no reason why this is not possible.


It's possible but how likely is it? I like him also but I don't know if he can hit for more than 15 HR especially in that park. Pretty good sleeper though.
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Re: What are your thoughts on Lastings Milledge?

Postby bigh0rt » Wed Mar 12, 2008 9:05 am

Yoda wrote:
mak1277 wrote:Take a look at Milledge's 2007 stats compared to Corey Hart's 2006 stats. Consider, then, that Milledge was a MUCH more highly regarded prospect than Hart. Finally, take into account that Milledge is a couple years younger.

Why can't Milledge put up a Corey Hart type of year this year? I see no reason why this is not possible.


It's possible but how likely is it? I like him also but I don't know if he can hit for more than 15 HR especially in that park. Pretty good sleeper though.

We don't know how Washington's new park is going to play.

However, in reply to mak, you could make this argument for any number of players who would fit in this criteria, comparing their X year stats to Hart's 2006, seeing that they were much more highly regarded than Hart, and predicting a breakout in year X+1. It's not a sound argument.
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Re: What are your thoughts on Lastings Milledge?

Postby mak1277 » Wed Mar 12, 2008 10:23 am

bigh0rt wrote:
Yoda wrote:
mak1277 wrote:Take a look at Milledge's 2007 stats compared to Corey Hart's 2006 stats. Consider, then, that Milledge was a MUCH more highly regarded prospect than Hart. Finally, take into account that Milledge is a couple years younger.

Why can't Milledge put up a Corey Hart type of year this year? I see no reason why this is not possible.


It's possible but how likely is it? I like him also but I don't know if he can hit for more than 15 HR especially in that park. Pretty good sleeper though.

We don't know how Washington's new park is going to play.

However, in reply to mak, you could make this argument for any number of players who would fit in this criteria, comparing their X year stats to Hart's 2006, seeing that they were much more highly regarded than Hart, and predicting a breakout in year X+1. It's not a sound argument.


I wasn't using the argument to predict a break-out year. I was merely using it to refute the statements that people made saying 20-20 was not a reasonable projection for Milledge this year (or, as some said, "crazy"). There's a reason that PECOTA projects awesome stats for Milledge this year though...you CAN use prior performance to project future performance. There's no reason Milledge CAN'T have a 20-20 year and hit .280. I'm not saying he will, I'm just saying that prediction is far from crazy.
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Re: What are your thoughts on Lastings Milledge?

Postby davidmarver » Wed Mar 12, 2008 6:37 pm

bigh0rt wrote:Well, to specify, you said that Giles was better than Milledge in '08, but I'll stand by Milledge being better than every Padre OF this season. OPS+, RC/27, how about Auction $ Value? Hell, we can even use 5x5 categories, and bring it to the fantasy forefront (even though you specified real-life value). Whatever we settle on works for me. How about we use OPS+, RC/27, $ Value, and 5x5, and if Milledge out-earns every Padre OF in 3 of the 4, I win, if any Padre out-earns Milledge in 3 of the 4, you win, and if it's a wash, we'll call it a draw? Sig bet, for the duration of the MLB Playoffs. Fair enough?

First off, no, you said Milledge will probably be better than any Padres outfielder, which I rebutted by stating that the Padres have several candidates to make that an incorrect statement.

But your bet sounds like the most ridiculous stipulation I've ever heard of. I wouldn't draft any Padres outfielder in front of Milledge because they play in Petco and Milledge's stolen bases -- which are incredibly overrated in real life -- make his $ and 5x5 value far more valuable than better baseball players such as Giles, Headley, or Edmonds. I threw RC/27 in there because it gave Milledge a favorable category since it doesn't account for how horrible Petco is for the Padres' outfielders. Requiring a Padres outfielder to beat Milledge in 3 of those 4 is nearly an unwinnable bet, not to mention that $ value and 5x5 are the same thing in many instances.

It's like me saying 'lets do 5x5, $ value, most games played in Petco, and most games played in San Diego county.' Milledge certainly wouldn't win that bet.

If you want to actually bet about their real-life value this season, instead of playing games trying to get me to agree to some ridiculous terms, then I'm all ears. (OPS+ doesn't assist anyone and RC/27 assists Milledge, meaning I was giving you an advantage as it was). If not, no one is stopping you from editing your original post.
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Re: What are your thoughts on Lastings Milledge?

Postby bigh0rt » Wed Mar 12, 2008 11:23 pm

First off, no, you said Milledge will probably be better than any Padres outfielder, which I rebutted by stating that the Padres have several candidates to make that an incorrect statement.

First and foremost, here's your quote chief...

Milledge isn't better than Brian Giles in 2008.


That's you, word for word, entire sentence, immediately following me saying that Milledge will be better than any Padre in the OF. Again, I stand by it. He will be. The Padre OF is a hair above embarassing. Headly is the only horse with a prayer, and I don't think he stands a chance, either.

Furthermore, don't accuse me of trying to skew anything in my direction. I clearly said I was open to anything. If you want to use OPS+ and RC/27, we'll gladly use that. I suggested bringing in the fantasy perspective for the exact reason stated -- to bring relevance to fantasy. If that bunches your panties, which it seemingly does, then I have no problem ignoring it completely, but I guess I didn't say anything that would indicate that anything worked for me...

Whatever we settle on works for me.

Oh wait, I did...

It's like me saying 'lets do 5x5, $ value, most games played in Petco, and most games played in San Diego county.' Milledge certainly wouldn't win that bet.

If you want to actually bet about their real-life value this season, instead of playing games trying to get me to agree to some ridiculous terms, then I'm all ears. (OPS+ doesn't assist anyone and RC/27 assists Milledge, meaning I was giving you an advantage as it was). If not, no one is stopping you from editing your original post.



RC/27 and OPS+. Player must win both, or win one and tie the other. A split in the two is a draw, as unlikely as it is. I get Lastings Milledge; you get everybody who plays the OF in San Diego 25 games or more (you can suggest a different number, if you' like), barring players who may be traded there during the season. The wager is a sig bet without limitation for the duration of the 2008 Playoffs.

Rest assured, your sig will be fitting, provided you're still game. I fully expect the same, if I'm mistaken.
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Re: What are your thoughts on Lastings Milledge?

Postby davidmarver » Thu Mar 13, 2008 12:31 am

bigh0rt wrote:
First off, no, you said Milledge will probably be better than any Padres outfielder, which I rebutted by stating that the Padres have several candidates to make that an incorrect statement.

First and foremost, here's your quote chief...

Milledge isn't better than Brian Giles in 2008.


That's you, word for word, entire sentence, immediately following me saying that Milledge will be better than any Padre in the OF.

With your immense copy/paste skills evidenced in about 3000 of your posts which consist of nothing but retread articles without any sort of intelligent input from yourself, I thought you'd be able to accurately copy/paste what I said. But apparently you can't because that wasn't the complete sentence:
davidmarver, contrary to what bigh0rt wants you to think, actually wrote:Because in real-life value, Milledge isn't better than Brian Giles in 2008.


Again, I stand by it. He will be. The Padre OF is a hair above embarassing. Headly is the only horse with a prayer, and I don't think he stands a chance, either.

He will be? Glad he'll still be. And if you mean 'embarrassing' or 'Chase Headley', then I disagree. All that copy/pasting seems to have hindered your ability to spell correctly; and you're an editor around here?

bigh0rt wrote:
Whatever we settle on works for me.

Oh wait, I did...

Right, and we didn't settle on anything.

bigh0rt wrote:
It's like me saying 'lets do 5x5, $ value, most games played in Petco, and most games played in San Diego county.' Milledge certainly wouldn't win that bet.


If you want to actually bet about their real-life value this season, instead of playing games trying to get me to agree to some ridiculous terms, then I'm all ears. (OPS+ doesn't assist anyone and RC/27 assists Milledge, meaning I was giving you an advantage as it was). If not, no one is stopping you from editing your original post.



RC/27 and OPS+. Player must win both, or win one and tie the other. A split in the two is a draw, as unlikely as it is. I get Lastings Milledge; you get everybody who plays the OF in San Diego 25 games or more (you can suggest a different number, if you' like), barring players who may be traded there during the season. The wager is a sig bet without limitation for the duration of the 2008 Playoffs.

Rest assured, your sig will be fitting, provided you're still game. I fully expect the same, if I'm mistaken.

Deal. This sounds like a fantastic deal for me. And don't you worry, either; your sig will look great at the top of all your copy/pasted-article posts.

And for the record, so we can compare back at the end of the season.
My predictions:
Giles: 5.70, 113
Headley: 5.95, 124
Edmonds: 5.75, 120
Milledge: 5.60, 112
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Re: What are your thoughts on Lastings Milledge?

Postby bigh0rt » Thu Mar 13, 2008 9:07 am

One more stipulation that came to me this morning. For a player to be eligible they must play in 100, 120, xxx games. I'll let you make the call. There's no sense in us having a dispute later about it. I don't care what the GP floor is, provided its reasonable, as long as there is one. But it's entirely your call. I trust you to make it fair.

Personal shots aside on both ends, I am looking forward to this. Should be fun. I'm generally not around during the MLB Playoffs, either (either watching the Mets or shamed by their collapse :-)), but whatever sig we each come up with I'm sure will be worth the price of admission, even if the exposure isn't maximized.

Lastly, any other personal shots you'd like to take, feel free to PM me -- and I'll gladly do the same. I don't wanna get this thread locked, or create any more work for the mods. Take it easy.
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Re: What are your thoughts on Lastings Milledge?

Postby makewayhomer » Thu Mar 13, 2008 2:21 pm

you guys should just use WARP. it takes into account offense, defense, and playing time

or VORP if you dont care about defensive effectiveness, but still want to consider defensive position played (which is important)

or .eqa if you dont care about playing time

anyways, Milledge is the best player of the 4, pretty clearly. I'm not sure the bet is great, b/c Milledge needs to beat all 3. the more people you add to the "non-Milledge" side of the wager, the "Milledge" side gets worse and worse, even if he still the best player of the bunch
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