Ok so first of, to explain, my interest in Guerra is for an upcoming pick in my minor league draft. So far this is what I have on him:
92-94 MPH fastball, could gain more velocity as he fills into frame. Amazing change-up, his best pitch. Developing curve. 18 years old, signed with mets out of Venezuela, traded to Twins as part of Santana deal.
I see him as a very talented pitcher, with great stuff. If I took him, it would be most likely to hope he has a big year in 08 and becomes a more recognized/top10-15 prospect and I can trade him for a more established MLB player (we only keep 15 so only rebuilding teams generally keep minor leaguers) or possibly to hope he does so well that he comes up way before his ETA. My questions are:
1. Who is he compared to? Fransisco Liriano? Johan Santana? Felix Hernandez? Someone else?
2. What is his ETA? Could he push it up to late 08 or some time in 09 and arrive early like King Felix?
3. Could he be a top-10 prospect going into 2009? (See my reasoning above)
4. Is he worth a fourth round pick in a 12 team minors league draft?
My team is competitive so I am unlikely to need anyone to produces ASAP. Currently my system has Clayton Kershaw, Gio Gonzalez, and Luke Hochevar. I have a powerful offense and week pitching so thats what I'm trying to build here.