Interested in a list of prospects (ETA 2008 or 2009 better, but later is okay also) who are likely to be 30 HR / 30 SB threats (or 20/20), a la Corey Hart, Chris B. Young, and (soon to be?) Matt Kemp. Any names are appreciated. Thanks.
Ok so to answer this question I browsed through BBHQ's minor league equivalent statistics, first looking for players with extraordinarily high PX and SX, then looked at milb equivalent stats. A few players I pulled out that are curently in majors, or competing for a job include: Matt Kemp, Ryan Braun, Corey Hart, Hunter Pence, Felix Pie, Justin Upton, Joey Voto, and Chris B. Young. The only players I found that qualified not in the big leagues were Brandon Jones and Brandon Wood. Cameron Maybin was not in those milb equivalents but he is top on my list of potential 30/30 guys in the minors. So heres the list.
1. Chris B. Young (fastest bat speed in league, Bary Bonds without the batting eye, as close to 40/40 guarantee as possible) 2. Corey Hart (30/30 written all over him) 3. Matt Kemp (same as Hart) 4. Ryan Braun (could steal 30 bases but wont do it consistently) 5. Felix Pie (great upside but power might not develop as planed) 6. Justin Upton (he might be best player in baseball by 2015, better than BJ) 7. Cameron Maybin (40/40 upside here)
I took Pence, Voto, Jones, and Wood out of the list because I don't think they quite meat one of the qualifications for 30/30 (although statistically they fit my MiLB equivalent numbers.) Chris B. Young, Justin Upton, and Cameron Maybin are the highest potentials on the list and have 40/40 potential.
Steve-o wrote:Maybin is the guy who came to my mind.
You do realize there are about 7 players in the last 10 years who have gone 30/30. It's pretty damn special and not many prospects can attain it. I'd say maybe 1 ever three years or so.
Yeah I was just giving a list of people who could do it, only a couple of these will. However I have to disagree with you about how many do. In the past ten years there have been 22 30/30 season by 15 different players including 3 first-timers last year.
Just about anyone else you can name is going to have to improve and/or moderately surprise in one area or another to do this - some guys are going to have to turn out to be better base stealers than we imagine, other guys are going to have to develop power that right now is only projected.
That said, here are a few guys that you should have on your radar screen for this:
Justin Upton Colby Rasmus Dexter Fowler Cameron Maybin Jordan Schafer Austin Jackson Chris Nelson Tyler Greene Matt Antonelli Neil Walker Desmond Jennings Drew Stubbs
Basically, tools guys who have a knock or two, but could have an outside chance at it.
Here is a sleeper 30/30 guy....Josh Fields. He, in 2006, stole 28 bases in 124 games in AAA. And we know he has the power, 23 HR in 100 games last year in Chicago.
Is pushing for President Obama to pass a law requiring all citizens to be Chicago White Sox fans and make October 1st "White Sox Day" where we all dress as our favorite player. It maybe socialist, but I don't care.
thedude wrote:A couple of potential 20/20 guys are Austin Jackson (NYY, OF) and Ryan Kalish (BOS, OF) but both are kinda far away.
I agree that Jackson is a 20/20 guy in the making but he may be closer than you think. Bobby Abreu's contact is up at the end of the year and if jackson has another big year they may be tempted to stick him in right. Hes also 21, so hes not that far away from the big leagues.