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Mr. Randy Johnson

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Mr. Randy Johnson

Postby RAmst23 » Mon Mar 03, 2008 11:51 pm

Any thoughts on Randy Johnson being a late round flier for a standard team? I haven't seen his name tossed around too much, but for his draft position shouldn't he be considered a good sleeper?
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Re: Mr. Randy Johnson

Postby IVIisfits138 » Tue Mar 04, 2008 12:08 am

Guaranteed to be on the DL at least once because of his back but I'd still take him in one of the last few rounds.
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Re: Mr. Randy Johnson

Postby Yoda » Tue Mar 04, 2008 1:22 am

Let someone else worry about him. Bad knees and back at his age = not good.
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Re: Mr. Randy Johnson

Postby BronXBombers51 » Tue Mar 04, 2008 1:24 am

I have a hard time deciding what to make of both RJ and Pedro. My initial feeling says to just leave them alone and not deal with the aggravation, but I guess they don't come at a hefty price, so...?
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Re: Mr. Randy Johnson

Postby AussieDodger » Tue Mar 04, 2008 2:15 am

Both Pedro and Randy are worth a look.
If you can get Pedro in the 10th/11th/12th, and Randy with your last pick, you are sweet. ;-D
If Pedro gets back in his groove quickly he will give you 3rd/4th round numbers for your 10th-12th round pick.
Randy could be anything, but it's your last pick so how much are you really expecting?
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Re: Mr. Randy Johnson

Postby AKhomebrewer » Tue Mar 04, 2008 2:52 am

Guess I'm with those who would grab Unit at the back end of the draft (if he's ready to go to start the season). Depending how you've already done snaring upside youngsters, that is likely a disposable roster spot. Maybe you catch lightning in a bottle for a few starts.
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Re: Mr. Randy Johnson

Postby bigh0rt » Tue Mar 04, 2008 6:51 am

I grabbed him with pick 19.4 of a 12-teamer back in January in a draft I did and have no problem with taking him there, regardless of his performance.
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Re: Mr. Randy Johnson

Postby Yoda » Tue Mar 04, 2008 9:39 am

It depends on the person and the league but... Last year my final 8 picks were:
Hart
Anthony Reyes
BJ Upton
Tankersley
Rafael Soriano
Billingsley
Lincecum
Wigginton

I may have been a bit lucky but expect for Reyes and Tankersley, the other guys were very useful. I'd rather not waste a pick on a 40+ pitcher with chronic knee/back problems.
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Re: Mr. Randy Johnson

Postby Pogotheostrich » Tue Mar 04, 2008 10:10 am

Both Pedro and RJ are worth late round picks, I just don't have much faith in either one. Johnson still seems to have his stuff but his injuries aren't going away. Pedro has lost some of his velocity but can still be pretty good. The problem is he is a 7 inning pitcher now so even on a good team W's are harder to come by.
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Re: Mr. Randy Johnson

Postby stumpak » Tue Mar 04, 2008 10:35 am

He is worth a flier if healthy coming out of ST and has more "upside" than many of the supposed sleeper SPs that people like to bandy about. Even if you assume that he has only a 50% chance of making 20 starts, he should net around 8-10 Ws in those 25 starts along with a great K/9 in the 9.00 range a helpful WHIP and an ERA that won't kill you.

How many scrub or high-risk SPs at the end of the draft have a 50% chance at this sort of upside?

Another angle is that the downside is limited. Even if the Dbacks are putting him out there withhis back in bad shape, he is not going to kill you. The result will be a WHIP and ERA that is not favorable, but it will not be atrocious and the K rate will still be good enough to off-set partially. Anyone who has spent the season digging out of a WHIP/ERA hole created by a crappy April peformance of some supposed sleeper can tell you that downside is just as important of a consideration.
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