I do my own version of tiers. I make list of pitchers who I could live with as staff ace. When it gets down to only one or two of my choices left I make my move --might be 4th round might be 8th round --you never know. I also make list for each of the other rotation spots -- usually only a handful for each spot. As my third pitcher last year I got Bedard in the 13th round.
blah blah blah... value value value... blah blah blah... (that's the only word that matters in this to me).
Looking at my mock drafts, I'm seeing that I'm normally taking 2SP and 1RP in my first 15 rounds, the rest is hitters.
The first pitching "run" seems to be starting around round 5-6, and although I hate following trends during the draft I do feel like I need one of these top-10 pitchers in order to compete in pitching categories, so I generally go with one there.
After that it's a complete crap-shoot, ranging from back-to-back pitchers to not seeing another one until after the 10th.
I usually draft hitters the first 5-6 rounds, however depending on how each individual draft goes, I would have no problem taking a pitcher in rounds 2-4.
In my most recent draft (public league, I wanted to get a few mocks under my belt before my real leagues) I took hitters 1-5 (A-Rod, Beltran, Upton, Markakis, Hafner) and happy enough with those 5, decided it was time to grab 2 pitchers. With picks 72 and 73, I took Verlander and Harang. I felt they both gave me solid value as I pegged them to be drafted a little higher. I took 2 more hitters next, (Konerko and Francouer) and then took Cain, Shields, Hughes, and Bucholz in rounds 10-13. Just like that, I had a potent lineup, and a more than solid staff.
All in all, draft pitchers when the time is right. I could have just as easily waited till round 10 to take my first pitcher.
I agree that you shouldn't have unbreakable rules when targeting SP's, but unless I see really good value, I'm not taking a pitcher before the end of round 4.
I think Smoltz is a great value pick over the past three years. He seems to consistently be available in round 6 or 7, and he has put up top 10 SP stats for the past 3 years.
Bluto: Over? Did you say over? NOTHING is over until WE decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? HELL, NO!
Otter: Germans?
Boon: Forget it, he's rolling.
I'll echo the same thing a number of folks said: draft SP at the appropriate value.
I like focusing on the first 6 rounds of the draft going in. Optimally, I want 4 hitters, 1 SP, and a swing pick (RP, SP, or a hitter) to build my team around and set the overall tempo of my draft that way. This entails finding the ace likely to provide you the most value, the chances for a higher reward, and is the appropriate value for where he's taken. It's not THE priority of the draft, but it has to be up there. In most cases I've seen, if you wait longer on pitching into the middle rounds, you have a higher probability of failure unless you can swing the trades playing the value game to get that ace to anchor your staff.
bigh0rt wrote:There isn't a single round I wouldn't take a SP in this year, provided the right pitcher is there.
Agreed. I tend to go on the philosophy of grabbing who I can when I think its the right time. My 12 team H2H 11X11 league tends to draft pitching very early so I imagine I will be taking at least one ace before the 4th round is over, and possibly two before the 6th/7th is over. I think when it comes down to it, you have to be able to be flexible with the direction the overall draft is going in.
RedSoxNation04 wrote:My 12 team H2H 11X11 league tends to draft pitching very early so I imagine I will be taking at least one ace before the 4th round is over, and possibly two before the 6th/7th is over. I think when it comes down to it, you have to be able to be flexible with the direction the overall draft is going in.
Just because everyone else is reaching for pitching, doesn't mean you have to. I fact, to me that's just another reason to wait. If you take an SP just because everyone else in front of you has been, then you are not getting good value.
RedSoxNation04 wrote:My 12 team H2H 11X11 league tends to draft pitching very early so I imagine I will be taking at least one ace before the 4th round is over, and possibly two before the 6th/7th is over. I think when it comes down to it, you have to be able to be flexible with the direction the overall draft is going in.
Just because everyone else is reaching for pitching, doesn't mean you have to. I fact, to me that's just another reason to wait. If you take an SP just because everyone else in front of you has been, then you are not getting good value.
Hence drafting them when I think the time is right. If pitchers are flying off the board and there is someone I want, I'll reach if I think its what I need to do to field the best team.