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Ales Rios vs. Johh Hamilton

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Re: Ales Rios vs. Johh Hamilton

Postby cards05 » Tue May 20, 2008 2:04 am

hot4tx wrote:Josh Hamilton could put up numbers with similar value to Rios, but so could Kemp, D Young, Justin Upton, Francouer, J Hermida, J Willingham, M Cameron, J Bruce, etc. They are less likely to, but they could do it. Or they could continue to do about what they've been doing or regress.

So if you're counting on Josh Hamilton to put up Rios numbers in order to make it worth it for you I think that's a bad idea, as Rios could just as likely ascend into the elite hitters this year.


This remains as true today as it was when it was posted. Given the available data, taking Hamilton over Rios at the beginning of the season was borderline absurd and nothing has changed that fact.
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Re: Ales Rios vs. Johh Hamilton

Postby BigTex24 » Tue May 20, 2008 2:44 am

He is really an elite talent..his swing is so beautiful..


Rios...he was pretty overrated going into the draft and that lineup is just awful :-t

Hamilton is actually in a very solid lineup and while he won't keep up his current RBI pace, he could finish with 120+, I really believe that if he plays 150 games.

His defense has been excellent also, although he did cost Texas the game tonight.
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Re: Ales Rios vs. Johh Hamilton

Postby Matthias » Tue May 20, 2008 3:05 am

cards05 wrote:
hot4tx wrote:Josh Hamilton could put up numbers with similar value to Rios, but so could Kemp, D Young, Justin Upton, Francouer, J Hermida, J Willingham, M Cameron, J Bruce, etc. They are less likely to, but they could do it. Or they could continue to do about what they've been doing or regress.

So if you're counting on Josh Hamilton to put up Rios numbers in order to make it worth it for you I think that's a bad idea, as Rios could just as likely ascend into the elite hitters this year.

This remains as true today as it was when it was posted. Given the available data, taking Hamilton over Rios at the beginning of the season was borderline absurd and nothing has changed that fact.

Can you justify this? "Borderline absurd" is an easy phrase to toss around; how would you defend it?

I would say, to preface it, the following:
A) The available data has changed. Hamilton leads the AL in EqR. Rios trails him significantly.
B) The available data around the time of the draft....
Their 2007's with Hamilton / Rios
AB: 298 / 643
R: 52 / 114
H: 87 / 191
HR: 19 / 24
RBI: 47 / 85
BB: 33 / 55
SB: 3 / 17
BA: .292 / .297
OBP: .368 / .354
SLG: .554 / .498

In what was Hamilton's first year in the majors, he out-performed Rios on a pro-rata basis in everything except for runs scored and stolen bases. And it has been known for years that Hamilton had the talent... this isn't a half-season wonder coming out of the middle of nowhere.
C) The news coming out of Spring Training was really sick.
Yes, the legend is growing. What started with a few awe-inspiring rounds of batting practice has quickly become the biggest story in the Rangers' camp. Well, the biggest story that doesn't involve a pitcher, an ice pack and a strained muscle.

Hamilton went 1-for-2 with a pair of walks in Sunday's 9-7 loss to Oakland. A called third strike in his final at-bat of the game ended a streak of 13 consecutive times reaching base.

It also dropped his batting average to .600 for the spring. But since batting average has become a relatively insignificant statistic in the modern baseball world, consider Hamilton's on-base percentage (.647) or his on-base-plus-slugging average (1.747). It may be the best spring training by a Ranger, ever.

Or by any player. Anywhere.

"It's an absolute joke," Rangers starter Kevin Millwood said. "He doesn't swing at a single bad pitch, and he doesn't miss anything he swings at."

Or from ESPN..
Josh Hamilton, CF, Rangers

SPRING STAT LINE: .556 AVG., .600 OBP, .972 SLG, 5 DOUBLES, 2 TRIPLES, 2 HR, 13 RBIS
We didn't think it would be possible for Hamilton to pop more eyeballs this spring than last spring, when he came back from nearly four years out of baseball to just about leap off the field at us. But he's pulled that off, one spring after his stunning trade from Cincinnati to Texas in December.

"Josh Hamilton," said one scout, "has been the best player in Arizona. When he hits the ball, it has a completely different sound than just about any player out there. He's just a different player. If he stays on the straight and narrow, and he stays healthy, he could hit 40 home runs this year. Wait. You know what? In that park in Texas, he could hit 50. He's that good."


Now, I can digest all that, look at the fact that Rios produced in 2007, produced in 2006, and has been in The Show for four years overall, and decide that Hamilton was too much of a risk to predict that he would out-produce Rios. But I can't digest that information and come up with the idea that Hamilton out-producing Rios is, "borderline absurd".

How do you get there?
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Re: Ales Rios vs. Johh Hamilton

Postby Yoda » Tue May 20, 2008 10:43 am

cards05 wrote:This remains as true today as it was when it was posted. Given the available data, taking Hamilton over Rios at the beginning of the season was borderline absurd and nothing has changed that fact.


Obviously you've never played in a keeper league and/or different scoring systems. OP already mentioned that he could keep Rios for 1 yr vs. Hamilton for 2 yrs: Advantage Hamilton. His league is HR heavy but not so much SB: Advantage Hamilton. Those two facts made his pre-season decision a lot closer than you are making it out to be.

This might come as a shock to you but some people actually play in private leagues with different rules and not just standard, redraft Yahoo pubs.
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Re: Ales Rios vs. Johh Hamilton

Postby cards05 » Tue May 20, 2008 12:35 pm

Matthias wrote:
cards05 wrote:
hot4tx wrote:Josh Hamilton could put up numbers with similar value to Rios, but so could Kemp, D Young, Justin Upton, Francouer, J Hermida, J Willingham, M Cameron, J Bruce, etc. They are less likely to, but they could do it. Or they could continue to do about what they've been doing or regress.

So if you're counting on Josh Hamilton to put up Rios numbers in order to make it worth it for you I think that's a bad idea, as Rios could just as likely ascend into the elite hitters this year.

This remains as true today as it was when it was posted. Given the available data, taking Hamilton over Rios at the beginning of the season was borderline absurd and nothing has changed that fact.

Can you justify this? "Borderline absurd" is an easy phrase to toss around; how would you defend it?

I would say, to preface it, the following:
A) The available data has changed. Hamilton leads the AL in EqR. Rios trails him significantly.
B) The available data around the time of the draft....
Their 2007's with Hamilton / Rios
AB: 298 / 643
R: 52 / 114
H: 87 / 191
HR: 19 / 24
RBI: 47 / 85
BB: 33 / 55
SB: 3 / 17
BA: .292 / .297
OBP: .368 / .354
SLG: .554 / .498

In what was Hamilton's first year in the majors, he out-performed Rios on a pro-rata basis in everything except for runs scored and stolen bases. And it has been known for years that Hamilton had the talent... this isn't a half-season wonder coming out of the middle of nowhere.
C) The news coming out of Spring Training was really sick.
Yes, the legend is growing. What started with a few awe-inspiring rounds of batting practice has quickly become the biggest story in the Rangers' camp. Well, the biggest story that doesn't involve a pitcher, an ice pack and a strained muscle.

Hamilton went 1-for-2 with a pair of walks in Sunday's 9-7 loss to Oakland. A called third strike in his final at-bat of the game ended a streak of 13 consecutive times reaching base.

It also dropped his batting average to .600 for the spring. But since batting average has become a relatively insignificant statistic in the modern baseball world, consider Hamilton's on-base percentage (.647) or his on-base-plus-slugging average (1.747). It may be the best spring training by a Ranger, ever.

Or by any player. Anywhere.

"It's an absolute joke," Rangers starter Kevin Millwood said. "He doesn't swing at a single bad pitch, and he doesn't miss anything he swings at."

Or from ESPN..
Josh Hamilton, CF, Rangers

SPRING STAT LINE: .556 AVG., .600 OBP, .972 SLG, 5 DOUBLES, 2 TRIPLES, 2 HR, 13 RBIS
We didn't think it would be possible for Hamilton to pop more eyeballs this spring than last spring, when he came back from nearly four years out of baseball to just about leap off the field at us. But he's pulled that off, one spring after his stunning trade from Cincinnati to Texas in December.

"Josh Hamilton," said one scout, "has been the best player in Arizona. When he hits the ball, it has a completely different sound than just about any player out there. He's just a different player. If he stays on the straight and narrow, and he stays healthy, he could hit 40 home runs this year. Wait. You know what? In that park in Texas, he could hit 50. He's that good."


Now, I can digest all that, look at the fact that Rios produced in 2007, produced in 2006, and has been in The Show for four years overall, and decide that Hamilton was too much of a risk to predict that he would out-produce Rios. But I can't digest that information and come up with the idea that Hamilton out-producing Rios is, "borderline absurd".

How do you get there?


Perhaps "borderline absurd" was too strong. I agree the availabe data has changed now. But, you throwing around minor league pedigree and spring training stats shouldn't have affected anyone at draft day. The fact remained that they had produced at a similar level and Hamilton was among the most likely players to miss significant time and has a history of drug abuse. Staying healthy is a skill and staying out of trouble is a skill, so Hamilton's pro rata stats do not do much for me. I'm just saying that if you factored risk into the equation, Rios is picked before Hamilton on draft day 2008 and I personally do not think that's debatable. But, like with your post, this is just my opinion based on the facts/stats I reviewed.
Last edited by cards05 on Tue May 20, 2008 12:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Ales Rios vs. Johh Hamilton

Postby cards05 » Tue May 20, 2008 12:39 pm

Yoda wrote:
cards05 wrote:This remains as true today as it was when it was posted. Given the available data, taking Hamilton over Rios at the beginning of the season was borderline absurd and nothing has changed that fact.


Obviously you've never played in a keeper league and/or different scoring systems. OP already mentioned that he could keep Rios for 1 yr vs. Hamilton for 2 yrs: Advantage Hamilton. His league is HR heavy but not so much SB: Advantage Hamilton. Those two facts made his pre-season decision a lot closer than you are making it out to be.

This might come as a shock to you but some people actually play in private leagues with different rules and not just standard, redraft Yahoo pubs.


I've played in plenty of those leagues Yoda, I don't play in yahoo pubs, period. I just assumed that on page 9 of a leftovers thread we weren't giving advice to a guy trying to make a decision based on a non-standard scoring system, which - by the way - would belong in another forum. I reasonably assumed we were discussing the topic that is the title of this thread in a general sense.
Last edited by cards05 on Tue May 20, 2008 12:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Ales Rios vs. Johh Hamilton

Postby Matthias » Tue May 20, 2008 12:43 pm

Here's a question for you, then, cards...

If you were doing a standard, redraft league that drafted today for the rest of 2008... do you draft Hamilton over Rios? Or do you think the risk is still too great?
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Re: Ales Rios vs. Johh Hamilton

Postby Yoda » Tue May 20, 2008 12:45 pm

cards05 wrote:
Yoda wrote:
cards05 wrote:This remains as true today as it was when it was posted. Given the available data, taking Hamilton over Rios at the beginning of the season was borderline absurd and nothing has changed that fact.


Obviously you've never played in a keeper league and/or different scoring systems. OP already mentioned that he could keep Rios for 1 yr vs. Hamilton for 2 yrs: Advantage Hamilton. His league is HR heavy but not so much SB: Advantage Hamilton. Those two facts made his pre-season decision a lot closer than you are making it out to be.

This might come as a shock to you but some people actually play in private leagues with different rules and not just standard, redraft Yahoo pubs.


I've played in plenty of those leagues Yoda, I don't play in yahoo pubs, period. I just assumed that on page 9 of a leftovers thread we weren't giving advice to a guy trying to make a decision based on a non-standard scoring system, which - by the way - would belong in another forum. Rather, I more reasonably assumed we were discussing the topic that is the title of this thread in a general sense.


Good point but still, when you actually read the posts then you will realize that there are leagues out there that would make Rios and Hamilton preseason rankings a lot closer than you claimed.
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Re: Ales Rios vs. Johh Hamilton

Postby cards05 » Tue May 20, 2008 12:53 pm

Matthias wrote:Here's a question for you, then, cards...

If you were doing a standard, redraft league that drafted today for the rest of 2008... do you draft Hamilton over Rios? Or do you think the risk is still too great?


First, I'll note that I edited my last post responding to you to include "perhaps borderline absurd was too strong." Wanted to make sure you caught that.

Second, can't answer that without looking doing a little research, but on the fly, I'd say that I'd have those two ranked very close. I'll give it a closer look when I get some time. I will say that I think highly of Hamilton, own him in a couple of leagues and traded him straight up in another for Jeter sometime mid to late April, and, based on my shortstop situation and other league factors, do not regret it.
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Re: Ales Rios vs. Johh Hamilton

Postby cards05 » Tue May 20, 2008 1:00 pm

FYI, HQ has Rios projected to perform $1 better than Hamilton the rest of the way. So, I'd at least say I'm not crazy to be ranking them close for the rest of the season.
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