The other thing to consider about Hamilton is that the projection systems (Pecota, Shandler are the ones I'm most familiar with but I'm sure other ones use them too...) typically use some type of historical data to project a career path for a player and, while there were some crazy players
, I can't think of too many who missed as much time as Hamilton sitting around getting wrecked smoking crack, etc.
I am not sure that that is a totally bad thing though as he seems to have cleaned up pretty much all of the way so he would likely play 'younger' than his actual age b/c he doesn't have ridiculous mileage on his chassis, riding busses around A Ball or whatever other challenges young players face on the way up. He missed out on some development time but, at least last year, he seemed to do ok despite that particular handicap.
Rios, OTOH, is getting older and is kind of getting a bit long in the tooth and, if he does not break out and have a massive season soon, we could probably consider him to be at the top of his game. Which is still good but maybe not what the Jays were hoping for out of him? Sort of like Wells, great player but not HOF material.
I like them both a lot but there are intriguing pros and cons to both of their situations. I'd probably rather have Rios but somebody else kept him but I got Hamilton cheap a ways into our auction and don't think that I have any great expectations out of him. I would not want to count on him as an OF stud but as a later round guy, I think he'll be ok and has some potential. Somebody else kept Rios so I didn't get a shot at him.