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Position Scarcity 2008

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Position Scarcity 2008

Postby kaiser » Mon Mar 03, 2008 10:07 am

I'm just finishing up my tiers for this season, and I'd be interested to see what you all think is the most shallow positions this year. Here is how I rank them, from most shallow to deepest:

C
2B
CL
SS
3B
1B
SP
OF

Of course, this doesn't mean I'm taking V<art in the first round, but it does help start setting a blueprint for the draft. Opinions?
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Re: Position Scarcity 2008

Postby Ender » Mon Mar 03, 2008 10:42 am

Depends on your league settings and you opinions on scarcity.

As an example I don't think C are scarce in a 12 team league with 1 C. There are 5 that stand above the rest but 2 of those get drafted so early they have absolutely no upside and are losing picks(Martin and Martinez at best will earn their draft positions, there is no upside there). Two of the other three generally go early enough that they dont' have much upside value either. Then you have about 15 guys that could all be the 6th best guy. So for my money I'll just wait until the last couple rounds and grab my personal sleeper C. To me that isn't scarce, that is a position that I can completely ignore until late in the draft and value wise only fall behind 1 or 2 owners in the league.
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Re: Position Scarcity 2008

Postby interchange » Mon Mar 03, 2008 12:16 pm

kaiser wrote:I'm just finishing up my tiers for this season, and I'd be interested to see what you all think is the most shallow positions this year. Here is how I rank them, from most shallow to deepest:

C
2B
CL
SS
3B
1B
SP
OF

Of course, this doesn't mean I'm taking V<art in the first round, but it does help start setting a blueprint for the draft. Opinions?


SS - Beyond the big 3, I don't feel comfortable having anyone other than maybe Tulo on my team
2B - Always shallow, but there's a few players with enough upside for me to feel comfortable taking a chance on
1B - Usually last in the list, I put them here because there are so many players whose better days are behind them
3B - I actually like the value of some players in this group
CL - Closers always pop up in the middle of the season, but it is important to lock down a solid closer or two ahead of the real value in a competitive league
C - I am hoping to snag Molina or Johjima late. Not enough PAs in this group to justify me reaching for one of the bigger names
SP - Deep enough not to feel pressured to reach on an overhyped player
OF - This group has the most potential to produce top 25 players from the middle rounds, IMO, and top 100 players from the later rounds
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Re: Position Scarcity 2008

Postby kaiser » Mon Mar 03, 2008 1:09 pm

Great replies, guys. Your arguments make more sense than mine.
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Re: Position Scarcity 2008

Postby Yoda » Mon Mar 03, 2008 1:21 pm

I don't play the position game at all. I draft based on value and usually end up with a very balanced team. If I have an excess in something and need to fill a position then sometimes I overpay to fill it after the draft but otherwise I just scavenge the waivers for emerging players.

Unless it is a 12+ team league, I simply ignore C. I don't see anyone significantly better than the rest to warrant a high pick. In a larger league or in a league that requires 2 Cs, you definitely want to grab a top 12 or so C since the drop off after that seems pretty steep.

I treat 2B/SS the same. If I get a top guy fall on my lap then great. If not, then I'm happy to pick up whatever is available middle to late rounds. In standard leagues there is really no reason to overpay for players at the draft just because they play a thin position.

That being said, I find OF to be a tough position to fill each year. Maybe because we play with 5 OF but seems like people are always scrambling for OF, RP and SP every year.
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Re: Position Scarcity 2008

Postby kaiser » Mon Mar 03, 2008 2:20 pm

Good points, Yoda, but isn't drafting based on value what the position scarcity debate is all about?
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Re: Position Scarcity 2008

Postby RAmst23 » Mon Mar 03, 2008 3:14 pm

I actually like 2nd base this year, there seems to be several late round guys with lots of upside. This isn't a position I mind
waiting on or waiting for a great value pick to fall into my lap (Often times Kinsler, Weeks, Kelly Johnson).

I like your thoughts on drafting Yoda, though if I think there's a position with a huge drop off between tiers I don't mind reaching slightly and picking a guy. Picking any of the 2nd tier SS in the late 5th or 6th is fine with me because I don't like what's left.

SPs is a position I've been waiting ages for this year. I've waited till the 7th in a couple mocks to draft a SP and still be in happy. I'd rate it as even deepr than OF.
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Re: Position Scarcity 2008

Postby jcde7ago » Mon Mar 03, 2008 3:22 pm

kaiser wrote:Good points, Yoda, but isn't drafting based on value what the position scarcity debate is all about?


Well, yes and no...and the main reason for this is because "value" is more or less essentially user-defined. I could have grabbed Jimmy Rollins in one of my drafts, but Ryan Howard loomed overhead and i valued raw power and rbi numbers a lot more, so i passed and took Howard/Braun at the turn. Another reason i did this was because i had already been targeting a more undervalued player at the SS position, Rafael Furcal, and when he did land to me i felt a lot more comfortable with Howard/Braun/Furcal than say a Rollins and two lesser corner infielders. Some people will argue i made the wrong move, and that Jimmy Rollins was the best value at my pick.

As well, your draft position GREATLY affects the way you draft if you're drafting based on position scarcity. There's simply too many factors that get in the way. You're better off picking those positions and players you value the most that your draft position allows you and go ahead and pass on that Chase Utley or Rollins if it means you can have a Howard/Braun at the turn. I am not a fan of grabbing a player i might not be high on just because he ranks at the top of a "scarce" position. Rather, it's always best to take the best value you can get and create a balanced team, and fill those "scarce" positions with undervalued players.

The blueprint is not necessarily on who you'll potentially be afforded a chance to pick early on, but on those players who you see are falling in the draft, which then greatly expands your options as the draft goes on. I don't know if that made sense, but that's my 2 cents...lol.
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Re: Position Scarcity 2008

Postby BronXBombers51 » Mon Mar 03, 2008 3:34 pm

Yoda,

I find your strategy intriguing. Here's an interesting question that has correlation to position scarcity...

Often times people say that they draft the best available in the first few rounds, no matter what. What if you have the 3-5th pick of the draft and you take David Wright, and on the way back in the 2nd round, Ryan Braun is still on the board? Do you take him simply because he's the highest guy on your draft board, even though you already have a 3rd baseman? (I used Braun as an example but this can be done with any position...1b with any of the top 4, shortstop if somehow Rollins slipped to the 2nd round and you already had Hanley/Reyes...etc.)

What if your league has more than one utility spot (mine has 3)? Does that make it easier to pick two studs at the same position?

Basically, when do you start thinking about positional scarcity?
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Re: Position Scarcity 2008

Postby kentx12 » Mon Mar 03, 2008 3:44 pm

BronXBombers51 wrote:Yoda,

I find your strategy intriguing. Here's an interesting question that has correlation to position scarcity...

Often times people say that they draft the best available in the first few rounds, no matter what. What if you have the 3-5th pick of the draft and you take David Wright, and on the way back in the 2nd round, Ryan Braun is still on the board? Do you take him simply because he's the highest guy on your draft board, even though you already have a 3rd baseman?

Basically, when do you start thinking about positional scarcity?


I had a draft over the weekend where I had 11th pick and I took Fielder at 11 and Howard at 14. It never crossed my mind to take another player and I was happy as I could be when Howard dropped to my 2nd pick. I guess what I am saying is that IMO it is best to take the best player you can get at any point in the draft. Our league only uses 1 UT spot so I filled that spot up with my 2nd pick.

As for posistion scarcity I dont worry much about it. this year I will not be taking a catcher till the last couple of rounds and will be targeting Greene or Lugo for my ss since I am not going to take one of the top 3 or 4 ss's. All other posistions it looks to me like I can get great value to fill any of them.
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