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PECOTA

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Re: PECOTA

Postby RJ24VC15 » Fri Feb 29, 2008 10:15 pm

I just subscribed online for the projections. I want rankings but on the PFM I only get like 4 catchers listed, I don't get it.

I also looked at the weighed means excel file, but there are no rankings, just the projections.
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Re: PECOTA

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Fri Feb 29, 2008 10:17 pm

Somebody else will have to help you with the online stuff. I'm not a subscriber.
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Re: PECOTA

Postby RJ24VC15 » Fri Feb 29, 2008 10:21 pm

I found the problem, I had to move the minimum auction value to way under 0 so it will rank more players.
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Re: PECOTA

Postby flloyd » Sat Mar 08, 2008 9:50 am

RJ24VC15 wrote:I just subscribed online for the projections. I want rankings but on the PFM I only get like 4 catchers listed, I don't get it.

I also looked at the weighed means excel file, but there are no rankings, just the projections.


You need to set the "Positional Adjustment" to 1, 2, or 3. Setting it to one of these numbers will ensure that it lists at least the minimum number of required players for your league at each position; thus 12 for my 12 team, one catcher league. If you do this you will not need to set the minimum auction values below zero; although that may still be helpful toward the end of you draft so that you can be more flexible.

More info is available here.

# Positional Adjustment: adjusts position player dollar values upward or downward based on an estimate of replacement level at a player's respective position given the parameters of the league; we recommend that the positional adjustment be set to level 1; players who play more than one position are adjusted to the position at which they would be the most valuable; here is a summary:

* level 0 is doing no adjustments for position at all--only the best hitters will be shown with no regard to position
* level 1 is going to take the results of level 0 and adjust player values so that the players shown with dollar values over the minimum values you select will fill all the positions for your league's rosters; this is the typical positional adjustment, analogous to most positional adjustments in most tools
* level 2 is going to take the results of level 1 and boost players who play positions that are generally weak, or shallow, in terms of fantasy production in your settings
* level 3 is going to take the results of level 2 and punish players who play positions that are stronger and deeper to further level the dollar values across positions
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Re: PECOTA

Postby Ender » Sat Mar 08, 2008 11:21 am

When using PECOTA the key thing to keep in mind is it wasn't built for fantasy baseball. It is built for real baseball and there is a pretty big difference. The stats it projects the best are not the stats that are used in fantasy and its playtime model assumes a lot of missed time for players. When you look at the projections this makes them look really low but in reality it comes out better than a lot of systems becuase of this, because every year quite a few guys do get hurt.

When I build my projections I don't like to assume an injury without a history of injuries before it so I tend to up the playtime for most guys. PECOTA also doesn't understand injuries so guys a year removed from a wrist injury as an example are guys I'll bump up a little.

A system like say fantistics or HQ or a magazine do adjust for these things, there is a human element involved and in some cases that is a good thing and in some it is a bad thing. I personally use a combination of sources and I heavily favor others for the playtime and PECOTA for the rates of stats. Then I usually throw a lot of it out and just fudge the numbers for my gut instincts.
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Re: PECOTA

Postby jfg » Thu Mar 13, 2008 10:37 pm

I just wanted to mention that people should read Sheehan (http://baseballprospectus.com/chat/chat.php?chatId=435) and Carrol's (http://baseballprospectus.com/chat/chat.php?chatId=413) chat transcripts for the past week or so. They both have done at least one since the PECOTA cards came out and they explain a lot of things that are coming up on these boards. You'll also see that they don't always agree with PECOTA. Also check out their fantasy guy, Marc Normandin's chat (http://baseballprospectus.com/chat/chat.php?chatId=432)

These are very helpful when trying to understand this years PECOTA projections. There was one from a year or two ago with the guy who puts together the PFM but it looks like it doesn't exist anymore. I'm not even sure what he talked about.
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Re: PECOTA

Postby makewayhomer » Fri Mar 14, 2008 9:11 am

Ender wrote: The stats it projects the best are not the stats that are used in fantasy


do you have any evidence of this?

I've never seen a study which analyzed this
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