Ender wrote:You are left with Miguel Cabrera basically. Chase Utley could also match those stats pretty easily. Matt Holliday matches those.
Add in the extra injury risk, positional scarcity as a 1B, the fact his stats might slip from the injuries even a little and I think it is a real mistake to take him before guys like Holliday, Cabrera, Utley so he is a 9th pick at the earliest and a risky one at that.
I don't buy the injury risk. Sure, he's got an elbow concern, but he's averaged 156 games a season in his career and is coming off a 158 game season, in which Adrian Gonzalez was the only 1B to see more action.
Pujols is just now entering his prime, 28, and has been getting more patient as a hitter as his career has progressed. He hasn't hit below .327 since 2002; he very consistent and is a perennial lock for at least 30/100/100 (with the exception of one 99 run season).
You can regress his stats 5% for lineup...whatever...if you age adjust correctly it offsets that loss. Plus, Glaus is much better protection that Rolen/Edmonds in recent seasons. And saying 'you are left with Miguel Cabrera basically' is forgetting that Cabrera will be hitting fifth in that lineup and is likely to see a decrease in value with the shift to the AL. Chase Utley could match those if he stays healthy...right...it also doesn't help that Utley has never finished above Pujols in fantasy, and turns 30 this year.
It's just ridiculous that someone whose fantasy finished the past three seasons in 2nd, 2nd, and 23rd, who is entering his prime, is going behind guys with career BAs of .300 and whose career highs in HR, RBI, and runs (talking about Utley here) look like Pujols' pessimistic numbers.