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Pujols: How Long is Too Long?

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Re: Pujols: How Long is Too Long?

Postby davidmarver » Thu Feb 28, 2008 11:58 pm

Ender wrote:You are left with Miguel Cabrera basically. Chase Utley could also match those stats pretty easily. Matt Holliday matches those.

Add in the extra injury risk, positional scarcity as a 1B, the fact his stats might slip from the injuries even a little and I think it is a real mistake to take him before guys like Holliday, Cabrera, Utley so he is a 9th pick at the earliest and a risky one at that.

I don't buy the injury risk. Sure, he's got an elbow concern, but he's averaged 156 games a season in his career and is coming off a 158 game season, in which Adrian Gonzalez was the only 1B to see more action.

Pujols is just now entering his prime, 28, and has been getting more patient as a hitter as his career has progressed. He hasn't hit below .327 since 2002; he very consistent and is a perennial lock for at least 30/100/100 (with the exception of one 99 run season).

You can regress his stats 5% for lineup...whatever...if you age adjust correctly it offsets that loss. Plus, Glaus is much better protection that Rolen/Edmonds in recent seasons. And saying 'you are left with Miguel Cabrera basically' is forgetting that Cabrera will be hitting fifth in that lineup and is likely to see a decrease in value with the shift to the AL. Chase Utley could match those if he stays healthy...right...it also doesn't help that Utley has never finished above Pujols in fantasy, and turns 30 this year.

It's just ridiculous that someone whose fantasy finished the past three seasons in 2nd, 2nd, and 23rd, who is entering his prime, is going behind guys with career BAs of .300 and whose career highs in HR, RBI, and runs (talking about Utley here) look like Pujols' pessimistic numbers.
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Re: Pujols: How Long is Too Long?

Postby Whisp » Fri Feb 29, 2008 12:11 am

what the last guy on page 1 said. no one should take him til they know they have another reliable player drafted. so latest is last pick first round.
C-MMontero/Iannetta 1B-Hosmer 2B-Kendrick 3B-MiCabrera/Rolen SS-Rollins
CI-IDavis MI-RRoberts OF-Bruce/Crisp/Hunter/Cain/Rios
SP-Sabathia/ClLee/Wainwright/Pineda/Hellickson/JSantana
RP-Putz/Santiago/Rodney/Lidge/Clippard
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Re: Pujols: How Long is Too Long?

Postby GiantsFan14 » Fri Feb 29, 2008 2:11 am

the only players i'm taking before him are arod, reyes, wright, and hanram...so i would take him 5th overall if i was at that spot at the other 4 were gone
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Re: Pujols: How Long is Too Long?

Postby Lofunzo » Fri Feb 29, 2008 3:13 am

Yoda wrote:I am honestly more concerned about his foot/leg. Elbow is just a joint and you don't generate power nor do you need it for running. For hitters, it's not that big of a deal unless it completely snaps off.

As far as his foot/leg problems, that is where the power is generated and you need them for running. Despite the reports I would be perfectly fine picking him top 10.


Are you seriously discrediting an elbow injury on a (power) hitter??
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Re: Pujols: How Long is Too Long?

Postby cards05 » Fri Feb 29, 2008 3:45 am

davidmarver wrote:
Ender wrote:You are left with Miguel Cabrera basically. Chase Utley could also match those stats pretty easily. Matt Holliday matches those.

Add in the extra injury risk, positional scarcity as a 1B, the fact his stats might slip from the injuries even a little and I think it is a real mistake to take him before guys like Holliday, Cabrera, Utley so he is a 9th pick at the earliest and a risky one at that.

I don't buy the injury risk. Sure, he's got an elbow concern, but he's averaged 156 games a season in his career and is coming off a 158 game season, in which Adrian Gonzalez was the only 1B to see more action.

Pujols is just now entering his prime, 28, and has been getting more patient as a hitter as his career has progressed. He hasn't hit below .327 since 2002; he very consistent and is a perennial lock for at least 30/100/100 (with the exception of one 99 run season).

You can regress his stats 5% for lineup...whatever...if you age adjust correctly it offsets that loss. Plus, Glaus is much better protection that Rolen/Edmonds in recent seasons. And saying 'you are left with Miguel Cabrera basically' is forgetting that Cabrera will be hitting fifth in that lineup and is likely to see a decrease in value with the shift to the AL. Chase Utley could match those if he stays healthy...right...it also doesn't help that Utley has never finished above Pujols in fantasy, and turns 30 this year.

It's just ridiculous that someone whose fantasy finished the past three seasons in 2nd, 2nd, and 23rd, who is entering his prime, is going behind guys with career BAs of .300 and whose career highs in HR, RBI, and runs (talking about Utley here) look like Pujols' pessimistic numbers.


I'm with ya. I stopped trying to argue a long time ago, though, because the cafe consensus is that he's having surgery and won't contribute in that lineup. The source of the injruy concern is an isolated comment he made at a winter warmup. I keep citing PECOTA. Keep in mind that the only reason I do this is because it's the undisputed best projection system out there. Here is what PECOTA says about Albert:

Pujols projects to be the best hitter in baseball, and it's not close. he leads all hitters in projected batting average (.327), on-base percentage (.427), slugging (.577), and equivalent average (.335).


And guess what, they have him at 119 runs and 110 RBI's for counting stats even in that lineup. In a keeper, I'd take him first. A redraft, I might wait until 5 or so, but that would be it. He had three down months and made a comment at winter warmup, and all of a sudden he goes from consensus #1 pick to 3rd round material. I wish those in my leagues were so fickle.
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Re: Pujols: How Long is Too Long?

Postby kaiser » Fri Feb 29, 2008 11:12 am

Agreed. He should be one of the first off the board in the second round. You have to get reliable production from your first round pick, or you'll be behind the eight ball all season. Pujols is the ultimate risk/reward this season, but you don't start taking those chances until the second round.
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Re: Pujols: How Long is Too Long?

Postby Yoda » Fri Feb 29, 2008 11:33 am

Lofunzo wrote:
Yoda wrote:I am honestly more concerned about his foot/leg. Elbow is just a joint and you don't generate power nor do you need it for running. For hitters, it's not that big of a deal unless it completely snaps off.

As far as his foot/leg problems, that is where the power is generated and you need them for running. Despite the reports I would be perfectly fine picking him top 10.


Are you seriously discrediting an elbow injury on a (power) hitter??


Not completely but it is not that as big as a leg or back injury for sure. He did just fine with it in 07 for instance. Most of the power sap came from various leg related injuries.
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Re: Pujols: How Long is Too Long?

Postby davidmarver » Fri Feb 29, 2008 4:47 pm

Lofunzo wrote:Are you seriously discrediting an elbow injury on a (power) hitter??

He's had elbow problems since 2003 and it really hasn't seemed to bother his fantasy game, at least not remotely close to how the leg injury did. His most recent quote on the elbow:
Albert Pujols wrote:Right now the way it feels I don't need to talk about any treatment. It feels good.
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Re: Pujols: How Long is Too Long?

Postby Fade2White12 » Sat Mar 01, 2008 12:34 pm

He did go 2 for 3 with home run yesterday. Just saying. :-b
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Re: Pujols: How Long is Too Long?

Postby Ender » Sat Mar 01, 2008 12:41 pm

Unfortunately I just got the 10th pick in my money draft so now I'm going to have to actually decide if I want him or not if he happens to fall. Was really hoping to get a pick where the decision was taken out of my hands.
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