Yoda wrote:I like McLouth as a later round/cheaper speed/power guy but be careful of power spikes. He's never shown power in the minors and while his newfound power may be legit, chances are that it was fluky. See Teahen 06, 07.
This is exactly right. Even if he winds up with a starting job, last years power numbers were an abberration and a reasonable HR assumption is 12 @ 600 PAs. His minor league numbers were categorically unimpressive. I would not call him a sleeper and do not see much upside.
Yoda wrote:I like McLouth as a later round/cheaper speed/power guy but be careful of power spikes. He's never shown power in the minors and while his newfound power may be legit, chances are that it was fluky. See Teahen 06, 07.
This is exactly right. Even if he winds up with a starting job, last years power numbers were an abberration and a reasonable HR assumption is 12 @ 600 PAs. His minor league numbers were categorically unimpressive. I would not call him a sleeper and do not see much upside.
Nice.
Enlightening.
I bumped this to see what people thought about 2nd half projections for McLouth based on what they've seen so far, not to scrutinize pre-season projections.
Like I pointed out earlier, McLouth's not getting flukishly lucky on his home runs. He just hits a ton of flyballs and drives the ball well--only 34% of his balls are GBs. His HR/FB is 12.8%, which is nothing crazy. On his own team, Nady is around 14% and Bay at 16%, which indicates--as any scout would tell you--that those guys have more raw power/strength than McLouth. And McLouth's far behind Ryan Howard, who I think usually leads the league in this category (he's always at 30-35% of flyballs = homers).
It's just that McLouth takes the right approach to hitting so he gets a lot of home runs which aren't moon shots, but are nice line drive homers. I stand by my second-half projection that he gets around 10 more homers and 10-12 more steals, which combined with an expected average around .290 (his contact rate is 85%+) makes him a very valuable player.
Definitely having a great season so far even the most optimistic projections. It's really hard to determine where he will go from here. My guess is that he won't match his production from April but should be a top 100 player in the second half as well. Congrats to those who are lucky to have him.
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." ~George Carlin
All you need to know is that Nate is nasty... I've got in him in all of my leagues (much thanks to the Cafe of course), and couldn't be happier.
As for the second half, I'd hold for the moment but would be constantly testing the market to see what he can bring in. Sometimes folks will be in need of a solid OF and will be willing to swing a better player. Nate is dirty as hell, and I love the guy (he's a real good story too, small town, worked hard while sitting on the bench, great eye), but I'd shop him for a hole in my team in a quick second. I see his average remaining around .280, a slight decrease in power and a slight increase in steals. All in all, he's a money 2nd OF. Nasty Nate - my boy.
stumpak wrote: This is exactly right. Even if he winds up with a starting job, last years power numbers were an abberration and a reasonable HR assumption is 12 @ 600 PAs. His minor league numbers were categorically unimpressive. I would not call him a sleeper and do not see much upside.
Nice.
Enlightening.
I bumped this to see what people thought about 2nd half projections for McLouth based on what they've seen so far, not to scrutinize pre-season projections.
Good for you. Not everyone cares about your intentions. It is, in fact, enlightening, to see how far off some were on McLouth, so please, step down from your high horse.
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by thatguy27 » Sun Jul 13, 2008 4:03 pm 
