I have been trying to identify late, late round sleepers with the potential to truly break out and provide a lot of value. One guy that continues to impress me the more I research him is Nate McLouth. Before I get to the good points, I want to give a caveat. He is not guaranteed a starting job. As such, he may be droppable within a couple of weeks of the season's start. The following analysis assumes he gets playing time. If he doesn't, you can just drop him having wasted only a very late round pick on him (yahoo O-rank of 271). Also, I'm not suggesting or predicting he will put up the numbers I set forth below. I'm simply saying that, it's possible, which is all you can ask for in the last round of your draft. To me, he is a player with the skills to have a break out that nobody saw coming.
McLouth stole 22 bases in just 329 at bats last season. If he gets 550 at bats, he should be a lock for 30+ stolen bases. He's always been a base stealer, but for whatever reason, he started hitting fly balls last year for the first time. In fact, his flyball percentage went all the way up to 53%. And 10% of those went out of the park for homeruns. This 10% mark is right in line with his performance over the last 3 years and is right at MLB average, so it's no fluke. His contact rate is consistently around 80%. So, if he gets 550 at bats as a regular he should put about 440 balls in play and 53% (if he can keep this up) will go for flyballs 10% of which will go for homeruns. This would give him about 23 to 24 home runs on the season. His walk% K% and LD% will have him hitting around .270, which doesn't kill your average. Runs and RBI's will depend on his lineup position. Also, he put up most of these numbers while playing full time in the second half of the season last year, so these numbers aren't skewed by virtue of him being in a platoon.
23 home run, 30+ stolen base players don't grow on trees. Hanley, Rollins, Wright, Sizemore and Phillips were the only ones who accomplished that last year. Also, there is reason to believe the 50% FB rate will hold. His contact % used to be around 90 and now it's down to the high 70's. This suggests he's altered his swing to swing for the fences.
Anyway, in all liklihood he won't do any of this, but if you're looking to take a chance on somebody in the last few rounds, I think he's a good target.
I like McLouth as a later round/cheaper speed/power guy but be careful of power spikes. He's never shown power in the minors and while his newfound power may be legit, chances are that it was fluky. See Teahen 06, 07.
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." ~George Carlin
is he even a starter at this point? all the depth charts i can find have nyjer morgan as the starting CF with mclouth as a backup...BP has him getting 30% of the playing time in CF along with a bit of playing time as a back up in RF and LF
GiantsFan14 wrote:is he even a starter at this point? all the depth charts i can find have nyjer morgan as the starting CF with mclouth as a backup...BP has him getting 30% of the playing time in CF along with a bit of playing time as a back up in RF and LF
As I said, he is not guaranteed a starting job. I just think: 1) the skills usually win out and he has more skills than Morgan; and 2) even if he doesn't get playing time, it's worth the very small risk you take in drafting him.
cards05 wrote:I have been trying to identify late, late round sleepers with the potential to truly break out and provide a lot of value. One guy that continues to impress me the more I research him is Nate McLouth. Before I get to the good points, I want to give a caveat. He is not guaranteed a starting job. As such, he may be droppable within a couple of weeks of the season's start. The following analysis assumes he gets playing time. If he doesn't, you can just drop him having wasted only a very late round pick on him (yahoo O-rank of 271). Also, I'm not suggesting or predicting he will put up the numbers I set forth below. I'm simply saying that, it's possible, which is all you can ask for in the last round of your draft. To me, he is a player with the skills to have a break out that nobody saw coming.
McLouth stole 22 bases in just 329 at bats last season. If he gets 550 at bats, he should be a lock for 30+ stolen bases. He's always been a base stealer, but for whatever reason, he started hitting fly balls last year for the first time. In fact, his flyball percentage went all the way up to 53%. And 10% of those went out of the park for homeruns. This 10% mark is right in line with his performance over the last 3 years and is right at MLB average, so it's no fluke. His contact rate is consistently around 80%. So, if he gets 550 at bats as a regular he should put about 440 balls in play and 53% (if he can keep this up) will go for flyballs 10% of which will go for homeruns. This would give him about 23 to 24 home runs on the season. His walk% K% and LD% will have him hitting around .270, which doesn't kill your average. Runs and RBI's will depend on his lineup position. Also, he put up most of these numbers while playing full time in the second half of the season last year, so these numbers aren't skewed by virtue of him being in a platoon.
23 home run, 30+ stolen base players don't grow on trees. Hanley, Rollins, Wright, Sizemore and Phillips were the only ones who accomplished that last year. Also, there is reason to believe the 50% FB rate will hold. His contact % used to be around 90 and now it's down to the high 70's. This suggests he's altered his swing to swing for the fences.
Anyway, in all liklihood he won't do any of this, but if you're looking to take a chance on somebody in the last few rounds, I think he's a good target.
There's been some discussion of him here at the cafe, and I think he is generally well-regarded. However, as you noted in your thorough analysis, PT and lineup position is the issue. I'll be watching pretty closely during ST to see how this plays out.
Yoda wrote:I like McLouth as a later round/cheaper speed/power guy but be careful of power spikes. He's never shown power in the minors and while his newfound power may be legit, chances are that it was fluky. See Teahen 06, 07.
Yeah I never thought of him as a power guy, mostly for cheap sb's. I'd like to see what he can do if given regular PT though.
Hal·la·day, n. 1. every fifth day in Philadelphia. 2. a day of rest for the bullpen. 3. innings eater. 4. doc. 5. ace.
I like McLouth and touted him over Chris Duffy last spring, because I thought he was the better player and would win the position battle. And, I would certainly include him in the mix of guys I'd be willing to take a late flyer on. But, I would be surprised to see him post 20+ HRs. He had a large platoon split in his power and plate discipline last year, and while his career numbers are less unbalanced, I think lefty pitchers have figured him out. Either way, I don't think you can just take what he did last year and increase it based on more PAs. Even if he avoids a bit of a platoon, he's not going to hit lefties with the same power.
"I don't want to play golf. When I hit a ball, I want someone else to chase it."
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:I like McLouth and touted him over Chris Duffy last spring, because I thought he was the better player and would win the position battle. And, I would certainly include him in the mix of guys I'd be willing to take a late flyer on. But, I would be surprised to see him post 20+ HRs. He had a large platoon split in his power and plate discipline last year, and while his career numbers are less unbalanced, I think lefty pitchers have figured him out. Either way, I don't think you can just take what he did last year and increase it based on more PAs. Even if he avoids a bit of a platoon, he's not going to hit lefties with the same power.
Again, I tried really hard to qualify myself in the original post, I'm not suggesting that anyone should take what he did last year and increase it based on at bats. The last sentence of my post makes that clear. But, what I am saying is that his skills supported his crazy speed/power second half and that's the first thing to look for when a player starts playing "over his head." That, to me, makes him among the very best fliers. Playing mostly full time (not in a platoon) over the second half of the season he did the following: 12 HR, .272 BA, 52 runs, 32 RBI and 18 SB in 250 at bats. During this time, he had a freaking 157 PX. Will he keep it up? I very seriously doubt it. But, not many speed guys ever get their PX to that level. Now, maybe he did face an inordinate amount of righties playing full time in the second half, I don't know. If that's true, it's certainly something to consider. GTWMA, what site do you use to view splits? You can't get that data on most sites. What I'd love to find is a site where you can take a random date like July 25 and view the 2007 stats from July 25 to the end of the season.
I will give another disclaimer on McLouth. After making my initial post, I found a similar post on another forum. Basically, one of the guys noted that he did sit against lefty's even when he was in his hot streak. Also, I might have been a little optimistic on the .270 BA with his current periphs. It may be closer to .260. Still, the point stands, great guy to take a flier on.
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by cards05 » Wed Feb 27, 2008 6:29 pm 
