Nate McLouth: High upside sleeper - Fantasy Baseball Cafe 2014 Fantasy Baseball Cafe
100% Deposit Bonus for Cafe Members!

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Nate McLouth: High upside sleeper

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

Nate McLouth: High upside sleeper

Postby cards05 » Wed Feb 27, 2008 6:29 pm

I have been trying to identify late, late round sleepers with the potential to truly break out and provide a lot of value. One guy that continues to impress me the more I research him is Nate McLouth. Before I get to the good points, I want to give a caveat. He is not guaranteed a starting job. As such, he may be droppable within a couple of weeks of the season's start. The following analysis assumes he gets playing time. If he doesn't, you can just drop him having wasted only a very late round pick on him (yahoo O-rank of 271). Also, I'm not suggesting or predicting he will put up the numbers I set forth below. I'm simply saying that, it's possible, which is all you can ask for in the last round of your draft. To me, he is a player with the skills to have a break out that nobody saw coming.

McLouth stole 22 bases in just 329 at bats last season. If he gets 550 at bats, he should be a lock for 30+ stolen bases. He's always been a base stealer, but for whatever reason, he started hitting fly balls last year for the first time. In fact, his flyball percentage went all the way up to 53%. And 10% of those went out of the park for homeruns. This 10% mark is right in line with his performance over the last 3 years and is right at MLB average, so it's no fluke. His contact rate is consistently around 80%. So, if he gets 550 at bats as a regular he should put about 440 balls in play and 53% (if he can keep this up) will go for flyballs 10% of which will go for homeruns. This would give him about 23 to 24 home runs on the season. His walk% K% and LD% will have him hitting around .270, which doesn't kill your average. Runs and RBI's will depend on his lineup position. Also, he put up most of these numbers while playing full time in the second half of the season last year, so these numbers aren't skewed by virtue of him being in a platoon.

23 home run, 30+ stolen base players don't grow on trees. Hanley, Rollins, Wright, Sizemore and Phillips were the only ones who accomplished that last year. Also, there is reason to believe the 50% FB rate will hold. His contact % used to be around 90 and now it's down to the high 70's. This suggests he's altered his swing to swing for the fences.

Anyway, in all liklihood he won't do any of this, but if you're looking to take a chance on somebody in the last few rounds, I think he's a good target.
cards05
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor

User avatar

Posts: 452
Joined: 12 Apr 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Nate McLouth: High upside sleeper

Postby Yoda » Wed Feb 27, 2008 6:34 pm

I like McLouth as a later round/cheaper speed/power guy but be careful of power spikes. He's never shown power in the minors and while his newfound power may be legit, chances are that it was fluky. See Teahen 06, 07.
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." ~George Carlin
Yoda
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy ExpertMock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 21344
Joined: 21 Jan 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: 15th green...

Re: Nate McLouth: High upside sleeper

Postby GiantsFan14 » Wed Feb 27, 2008 6:37 pm

is he even a starter at this point? all the depth charts i can find have nyjer morgan as the starting CF with mclouth as a backup...BP has him getting 30% of the playing time in CF along with a bit of playing time as a back up in RF and LF
Image
25
@FBC_GiantsFan14 on Twitter
GiantsFan14
Baseball Scribe
Baseball Scribe

User avatar
EditorCafeholicResponse TeamCafe WriterGraphics ExpertMock(ing) DrafterWeb SupporterPick 3 Weekly Winner
Posts: 14132
(Past Year: 453)
Joined: 12 Mar 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: BUSTER HATH ARRIVED

Re: Nate McLouth: High upside sleeper

Postby cards05 » Wed Feb 27, 2008 6:52 pm

GiantsFan14 wrote:is he even a starter at this point? all the depth charts i can find have nyjer morgan as the starting CF with mclouth as a backup...BP has him getting 30% of the playing time in CF along with a bit of playing time as a back up in RF and LF


As I said, he is not guaranteed a starting job. I just think: 1) the skills usually win out and he has more skills than Morgan; and 2) even if he doesn't get playing time, it's worth the very small risk you take in drafting him.
cards05
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor

User avatar

Posts: 452
Joined: 12 Apr 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Nate McLouth: High upside sleeper

Postby Giambis » Wed Feb 27, 2008 6:52 pm

cards05 wrote:I have been trying to identify late, late round sleepers with the potential to truly break out and provide a lot of value. One guy that continues to impress me the more I research him is Nate McLouth. Before I get to the good points, I want to give a caveat. He is not guaranteed a starting job. As such, he may be droppable within a couple of weeks of the season's start. The following analysis assumes he gets playing time. If he doesn't, you can just drop him having wasted only a very late round pick on him (yahoo O-rank of 271). Also, I'm not suggesting or predicting he will put up the numbers I set forth below. I'm simply saying that, it's possible, which is all you can ask for in the last round of your draft. To me, he is a player with the skills to have a break out that nobody saw coming.

McLouth stole 22 bases in just 329 at bats last season. If he gets 550 at bats, he should be a lock for 30+ stolen bases. He's always been a base stealer, but for whatever reason, he started hitting fly balls last year for the first time. In fact, his flyball percentage went all the way up to 53%. And 10% of those went out of the park for homeruns. This 10% mark is right in line with his performance over the last 3 years and is right at MLB average, so it's no fluke. His contact rate is consistently around 80%. So, if he gets 550 at bats as a regular he should put about 440 balls in play and 53% (if he can keep this up) will go for flyballs 10% of which will go for homeruns. This would give him about 23 to 24 home runs on the season. His walk% K% and LD% will have him hitting around .270, which doesn't kill your average. Runs and RBI's will depend on his lineup position. Also, he put up most of these numbers while playing full time in the second half of the season last year, so these numbers aren't skewed by virtue of him being in a platoon.

23 home run, 30+ stolen base players don't grow on trees. Hanley, Rollins, Wright, Sizemore and Phillips were the only ones who accomplished that last year. Also, there is reason to believe the 50% FB rate will hold. His contact % used to be around 90 and now it's down to the high 70's. This suggests he's altered his swing to swing for the fences.

Anyway, in all liklihood he won't do any of this, but if you're looking to take a chance on somebody in the last few rounds, I think he's a good target.


There's been some discussion of him here at the cafe, and I think he is generally well-regarded. However, as you noted in your thorough analysis, PT and lineup position is the issue. I'll be watching pretty closely during ST to see how this plays out.
Giambis
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor


Posts: 483
Joined: 26 Apr 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Nate McLouth: High upside sleeper

Postby smoovethug » Wed Feb 27, 2008 8:05 pm

Yoda wrote:I like McLouth as a later round/cheaper speed/power guy but be careful of power spikes. He's never shown power in the minors and while his newfound power may be legit, chances are that it was fluky. See Teahen 06, 07.


Yeah I never thought of him as a power guy, mostly for cheap sb's. I'd like to see what he can do if given regular PT though.
Image

Hal·la·day, n. 1. every fifth day in Philadelphia. 2. a day of rest for the bullpen. 3. innings eater. 4. doc. 5. ace.
smoovethug
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
EditorCafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerGraphics ExpertGolden Eagle EyeWeb SupporterLucky Ladders ChampionPick 3 Weekly WinnerTrivia Time Trial Monthly Winner
Posts: 8955
(Past Year: 23)
Joined: 6 Nov 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Halladay Season

Re: Nate McLouth: High upside sleeper

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Wed Feb 27, 2008 8:59 pm

I like McLouth and touted him over Chris Duffy last spring, because I thought he was the better player and would win the position battle. And, I would certainly include him in the mix of guys I'd be willing to take a late flyer on. But, I would be surprised to see him post 20+ HRs. He had a large platoon split in his power and plate discipline last year, and while his career numbers are less unbalanced, I think lefty pitchers have figured him out. Either way, I don't think you can just take what he did last year and increase it based on more PAs. Even if he avoids a bit of a platoon, he's not going to hit lefties with the same power.
"I don't want to play golf. When I hit a ball, I want someone else to chase it."
GotowarMissAgnes
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy Expert
Posts: 5516
Joined: 12 Dec 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Happy Valley

Re: Nate McLouth: High upside sleeper

Postby cards05 » Wed Feb 27, 2008 9:24 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:I like McLouth and touted him over Chris Duffy last spring, because I thought he was the better player and would win the position battle. And, I would certainly include him in the mix of guys I'd be willing to take a late flyer on. But, I would be surprised to see him post 20+ HRs. He had a large platoon split in his power and plate discipline last year, and while his career numbers are less unbalanced, I think lefty pitchers have figured him out. Either way, I don't think you can just take what he did last year and increase it based on more PAs. Even if he avoids a bit of a platoon, he's not going to hit lefties with the same power.


Again, I tried really hard to qualify myself in the original post, I'm not suggesting that anyone should take what he did last year and increase it based on at bats. The last sentence of my post makes that clear. But, what I am saying is that his skills supported his crazy speed/power second half and that's the first thing to look for when a player starts playing "over his head." That, to me, makes him among the very best fliers. Playing mostly full time (not in a platoon) over the second half of the season he did the following: 12 HR, .272 BA, 52 runs, 32 RBI and 18 SB in 250 at bats. During this time, he had a freaking 157 PX. Will he keep it up? I very seriously doubt it. But, not many speed guys ever get their PX to that level. Now, maybe he did face an inordinate amount of righties playing full time in the second half, I don't know. If that's true, it's certainly something to consider. GTWMA, what site do you use to view splits? You can't get that data on most sites. What I'd love to find is a site where you can take a random date like July 25 and view the 2007 stats from July 25 to the end of the season.
cards05
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor

User avatar

Posts: 452
Joined: 12 Apr 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Nate McLouth: High upside sleeper

Postby BillyHallDisciple » Wed Feb 27, 2008 9:54 pm

Thanks for this post. Even if he doesn't continue the big power, he's still worth a flyer, especially as a cheap option in a keeper league.
BillyHallDisciple
General Manager
General Manager


Posts: 2850
Joined: 1 Aug 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Nate McLouth: High upside sleeper

Postby cards05 » Wed Feb 27, 2008 10:12 pm

I will give another disclaimer on McLouth. After making my initial post, I found a similar post on another forum. Basically, one of the guys noted that he did sit against lefty's even when he was in his hot streak. Also, I might have been a little optimistic on the .270 BA with his current periphs. It may be closer to .260. Still, the point stands, great guy to take a flier on.
cards05
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor

User avatar

Posts: 452
Joined: 12 Apr 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball

Next

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: cardsfan, scarnicease and 7 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Today's Games
Friday, Aug. 1
(All times are EST, weather icons show forecast for game time)

Seattle at Baltimore
(7:05 pm)
Texas at Cleveland
(7:05 pm)
Philadelphia at Washington
(7:05 pm)
Colorado at Detroit
(7:08 pm)
LA Angels at Tampa Bay
(7:10 pm)
indoors
San Francisco at NY Mets
(7:10 pm)
Cincinnati at Miami
(7:10 pm)
indoors
NY Yankees at Boston
(7:10 pm)
Minnesota at Chi White Sox
(8:10 pm)
Toronto at Houston
(8:10 pm)
Milwaukee at St. Louis
(8:15 pm)
Kansas City at Oakland
(9:35 pm)
Pittsburgh at Arizona
(9:40 pm)
Chi Cubs at LA Dodgers
(10:10 pm)
Atlanta at San Diego
(10:10 pm)

  • Fantasy Baseball
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact