PFM Question

[Mike_nyc]

PFM is projecting Brian Roberts as a higher point producer than Chase Utley based on my scoring format (by 19 pts). Sportsline has Utley outproducing Roberts by about 100. The projected lines for each are outlined below. I can figure out the differential by crunching the numbers but I guess my question is how to interpret this. I can't make a case for Roberts over Utley in any capacity; should I conclude PFM as useless in certain scenarios, or should some other consideration be given? Its tough to read but the highlighted totals represent their projected points

Sportsline:
Player Team 1B 2B 3B BA BB HR KO R RBI SB FPTS
Utley, Chase PHI 115 45 3 .3245 75 32 100 120 110 15 573.0
Roberts, Brian BAL 113 42 5 .2850 85 11 90 100 57 38 474.0
PFM:
PLAYER Roberts, Brian
Points PA R 1B 2B 3B HR RBI BB
489 684 106 111 38 5 14 72 75
SO SB CS
86 36 8

Utley, Chase
Points PA R 1B 2B 3B HR RBI BB
470 652 103 101 36 4 27 95 65
SO SB CS
102 9 2

[makewayhomer]

we discussed this in the PECOTA card thread. basically, PECOTA thinks Utley is going to take a huge AVG hit, down to .300 ish, b/c his high AVG last year was largely luck driven (high BABIP). this will hurt his RBI (since he is going to be getting less RBI/RBI oppty).

PECOTA thinks Roberts will steal 27 more bases (HUGE), which is enough to make up for Utleys HR/RBI/AVG edge.

that is the case in my 7x5, anyways. also, Roberts strikes out less, which helps him out in my league. not sure how your scoring works.

looking a bit further, sportsline thinks the HR edge will be much bigger than PECOTA does. pecota thinks he'll get a lot more rbi .basically, the "problem" isnt with pfm but with the underlying projections.

I'll take PECOTA over Sportsline (or anyone else).

[Mike_nyc]

I guess I have to reconsider targeting him in the first round

[jfg]

I guess I have to reconsider targeting him in the first round

I was always an apologist for drafting Utley in the first round but it doesn't make sense anymore. There are at least three options that will be right next to Utley at the end of the year if not above him.