we discussed this in the PECOTA card thread. basically, PECOTA thinks Utley is going to take a huge AVG hit, down to .300 ish, b/c his high AVG last year was largely luck driven (high BABIP). this will hurt his RBI (since he is going to be getting less RBI/RBI oppty).
PECOTA thinks Roberts will steal 27 more bases (HUGE), which is enough to make up for Utleys HR/RBI/AVG edge.
that is the case in my 7x5, anyways. also, Roberts strikes out less, which helps him out in my league. not sure how your scoring works.
looking a bit further, sportsline thinks the HR edge will be much bigger than PECOTA does. pecota thinks he'll get a lot more rbi .basically, the "problem" isnt with pfm but with the underlying projections.
I'll take PECOTA over Sportsline (or anyone else).