Baseball HQ vs PECOTA projections

[Ender]

PECOTA isn't a fantasy projection service so if all you care about is fantasy I'd go with something else. BPro is a great baseball site and PECOTA is great at rate stats so when used along with other systems it is pretty strong. If you used something like Fantistics for playtime and PECOTA for the actual rates for stats you'd probably do better than PECOTA alone.

I've never used baseball HQ(I do buy forecaster but that isn't quite the same) so cannot comment on that. Baseball Notebook is pretty terrible.

[GotowarMissAgnes]

Those of you interested in the best projection systems might want to take a look at Tom Tango's comparison:

http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.p ... esults/#30

The take away message? Here's Tom's suggestion:

"If every forecaster out there will agree to the following statement, I will stop this now seemingly pointless exercise:

I, as a professional forecaster, concede that when it comes time to forecasting the rate stats of hitters, that I provide very little value compared to Marcel The Monkey and The Community.

Pete Palmer has said as much in an email. Rally has said as much in various posts. MGL, Nate, Ron Shandler, Gassko, Sackmann, Tippett, Bill James: do you concede the point? Show of hands please. "



Here's

[AcidRock23]

I got my copy of Baseball Goldmine by Bill James and it has an interesting article called "Atypical Seasons" that states that there are 11,364 players w/ > 500 plate appearances and only 444 of them (4%) finished with the exact hit total you would expect simply multiplying the season's AB total by their career batting average (Baseball Goldmine, p. 103). It goes into more detail than that but it is a fairly interesting exercise explaining the vagaries of predictive science applied to baseball.