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Baseball HQ vs PECOTA projections

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Baseball HQ vs PECOTA projections

Postby makewayhomer » Mon Feb 25, 2008 3:58 pm

who is more accurate? does anybody have any links to stories, studies, etc?

I am trying to figure out if Rotolab/HQ will produce more accurate valuations than BP/PFM. any thoughts?

I really dig the rotolab software (I have the trial) and I would like to use it, both for in-draft and for trade eval. but are the projections as good as the simple pfm spreadsheet?
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Re: Baseball HQ vs PECOTA projections

Postby cards05 » Mon Feb 25, 2008 4:07 pm

Pecota consistently outperforms HQ, and everybody else for that matter. Is it possible to import the Pecota numbers into your rotolab software? That would seem to give you the best of both worlds.
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Re: Baseball HQ vs PECOTA projections

Postby makewayhomer » Mon Feb 25, 2008 4:10 pm

cards05 wrote:Pecota consistently outperforms HQ, and everybody else for that matter.


that is my sense...though I'm not sure if the differences are huge, any edge is important

cards05 wrote: Is it possible to import the Pecota numbers into your rotolab software? That would seem to give you the best of both worlds.


NO. you can edit players, but only one at a time. I agree that that would be ideal.
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Re: Baseball HQ vs PECOTA projections

Postby cards05 » Mon Feb 25, 2008 4:14 pm

GTWMA can probably provide you a link to the studies comparing the success of the various projection systems. I don't remember the specifics, just that Pecota was consitsently on top.
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Re: Baseball HQ vs PECOTA projections

Postby makewayhomer » Mon Feb 25, 2008 4:18 pm

cards05 wrote:GTWMA can probably provide you a link to the studies comparing the success of the various projection systems. I don't remember the specifics, just that Pecota was consitsently on top.


http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/forecast_evaluations/ here is a thread which discusses a lot of it, and the authors of PECOTA, CHONE, ZIPS, and MARCEL all chime in. basically they are all fairly similar, but PECOTA does the best with younger player, which imo is very important for fantasy. if you can get a $1 rookie to perform like the $20 Adrian Beltre some other guy bought...well you know the deal ;)


unfortunately, baseball HQ is not included in that thread
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Re: Baseball HQ vs PECOTA projections

Postby Yoda » Mon Feb 25, 2008 4:25 pm

BHQ is not bad actually. James is pretty good also.

I tend to use PECOTA because they seem to be very conservative. I like to look at a lot of different ones to form my own projections.
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Re: Baseball HQ vs PECOTA projections

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Fri Feb 29, 2008 1:51 am

viewtopic.php?f=7&t=323611&hilit=projections


Shows some of the various studies over the years.
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Re: Baseball HQ vs PECOTA projections

Postby dladue » Fri Feb 29, 2008 8:02 pm

Fantistics should be included in this conversation as well, they have consistently performed in the top echelon.

http://www.geocities.com/rotodaddybaseball/

Being on the subject, I am looking to compare these services again. I've maintained a comparision blog over the last few years, however I only have two sources to compare right now from last season (Fantistics and Baseball HQ).

If you have the 2007 projections from any of the other services mentioned and would like to see how they fared last year, forward them to rotodaddybaseball@yahoo.com .
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Re: Baseball HQ vs PECOTA projections

Postby J35J » Fri Feb 29, 2008 9:17 pm

....I'm not a fan of PECOTA at all....
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Re: Baseball HQ vs PECOTA projections

Postby rookies and cream » Fri Feb 29, 2008 9:22 pm

J35J wrote:....I'm not a fan of PECOTA at all....


Why not J35J?
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