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Overrated teams

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Re: Overrated teams

Postby bigh0rt » Mon Feb 25, 2008 3:49 pm

knapplc wrote:
Old_Style wrote:
KoopaTroopa211 wrote:
%-6 %-6 %-6

Only if they score about a billion runs this year. Francisco Cordero isn't going to be the magic cure-all that solves all their bullpen problems, and their rotation is Aaron Harang and Four Other Guys.


I agree. The Reds are getting too much love for my liking. They'd probably be my overrated NL Central team.

I'm on the fence about Arroyo this year. He had that AL to NL honeymoon year in 2006, but I think he still has enough stuff to get 10-12 wins against NL bats, and if they can score those runs (I think they'll only need half a billion runs, really :-b ) they'll be in the mix. If the Cubs or Brewers don't take off in April/May I would expect to see the Reds within five games at the Break, and perhaps even late into August.

Arroyo had 22 QS last year. He got absolutely lit up for a 6-7 start stretch from the end of May through mid-June, but before and afterwards he was as good a pitcher as you can expect him to be. I think he ought to have a fine year, and be a very reliable #2 guy for Cinci.
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Re: Overrated teams

Postby KCollins1304 » Mon Feb 25, 2008 4:01 pm

Bloody Sox wrote:
KCollins1304 wrote:
Bloody Sox wrote:
My picks:

- AL East: Yankees (Posada can't repeat that year a la Lowell, Matsui/Damon/Posada/Jeter/Abreu/Rivera are another year older, rotation is full of question marks. Joba needed as a setup guy, who knows what you'll get if they make him a starter).


You talk about the Yankees like they are the only team where players get older every year. I can play the same aging game with the Red Sox, Manny/Ortiz/Lowell/Wakefield/Schilling/Varitek are all another year older as well. The AL East is going to be a race within 3-4 games just like it has been for the last couple years. The Yankees played horrible in the first half last year, as in they were under .500 until July 10 last year. Damon/Matsui/Abreu underperformed for most of the year. A regression from A-Rod and Posada will be matched by Abreu/Damon/Matsui returning to their '06 numbers. Also, Melky and Cano have another year of experience. As far as Joba, maybe you don't realize that he started the entire year last year until he was called up to the Yankees in relief. This was all done to limit his innings while allowing him to contribute, he isn't some complete unknown in the rotation. He had a phenomenal year going from A ball to MLB.

Wow - you managed to be more defensive than I was :-) I said nothing about how close the race would be or anything of that sort. I was simply pointing out some reasons why I think the Yanks won't reach expectations. Some counter points:

- Last I checked, Joba didn't start in the majors, so he is a complete unknown in that role regardless of his A-Ball stats. Same is true of Buchholz, so this isn't a slam. Plus the fact that he'll almost definitely be needed in the pen means the Yanks have a rotation of Wang, Pettitte, Mussina, Hughes, and Kennedy.

- I hadn't even counted Pettitte, Mussina, or Giambi in the "old count". So that's a total of 9 Yankee starters (out of 15, counting the closer) at or over the age of 34, many who are already showing signs of decline. Given that Schilling is done, that leaves only 4 Red Sox starters over the age of 34.

- I don't know where you see this magical resurgence coming from Damon or Matsui or Abreu any more than I could reasonably say that Manny or Varitek are going to revert to their 2004-2005 forms (though I am hopeful about Manny).

- Ortiz is younger than A-Rod at only 32, though I don't see either of them declining - you'll note I said nothing about A-Rod.

- Agree completely on Cano and Melky, just as I do with Ellsbury, Youkilis, and Pedroia.



-Joba is going to start out in the bullpen to keep his innings down, but he will be starting by at least the 2nd half. He needs to throw at least 150 innings to work up his arm strength for years to come. He has a lot more value in being a starter.

- Ortiz may not decline this year, but I don't think his knees will allow him to be an elite hitter for more than 3 more years.

-My magical resurgences come from their 2nd half numbers(AVG/SLUG/OPS):

Damon: .296/.450/.814
Abreu: .305/.528/.918
Matsui: .298/.515/.891

My main point was that they won't be as bad as they were in the 1st half when the Yankees were under .500.

I wasn't in the Red Sox are overrated camp to begin the discussion, I think they're pretty comparable to the Yankees. You were the one to call the Yankees overrated. I'm fine with the Yankees flying a little more under the radar than usual.
Last edited by KCollins1304 on Mon Feb 25, 2008 4:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Overrated teams

Postby bigh0rt » Mon Feb 25, 2008 4:24 pm

Are those 2nd half #s, you mean? If so, I believe your numbers are inaccurate, as I have Damon's 2nd half last year at .296/.364/.450 for a .814 OPS, not .833. Abreu's and Matsui's #s are spot-on, though. Even still, the odds of three separate 34 year olds in the same outfield returning to former performance levels is slim.
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Re: Overrated teams

Postby KCollins1304 » Mon Feb 25, 2008 4:32 pm

bigh0rt wrote:Are those 2nd half #s, you mean? If so, I believe your numbers are inaccurate, as I have Damon's 2nd half last year at .296/.364/.450 for a .814 OPS, not .833. Abreu's and Matsui's #s are spot-on, though. Even still, the odds of three separate 34 year olds in the same outfield returning to former performance levels is slim.


You're right, I fixed it, I'm not sure how I got that. It wasn't that long ago, it was just last season. They don't need to replicate those 2nd half numbers to be a lot better than they were in the 1st half. Damon and Abreu were exceptionally bad in the 1st half. I think they'll be in better shape this year, the Yankees are running a lot more in spring training this year with Girardi. Damon and Abreu were out of shape when they showed up for spring training last year, but by all accounts they are in a lot better shape this year.
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Re: Overrated teams

Postby BronXBombers51 » Mon Feb 25, 2008 4:34 pm

What exactly are people projecting the Yankees to do, that they will fall short of? I think it's obvious that this is not the 100-win club that it used to be. I fully expect the Yankees to win between 90 and 95 games and compete in both the AL East and Wildcard chases, though.

Just curious, to those of you calling them overrated, what do you expect of them this year? 85 wins? Less?
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Re: Overrated teams

Postby Ender » Mon Feb 25, 2008 4:43 pm

I think expectations are the Red Sox in 1st place and the Yankees fighting for the Wild Card and maybe not reaching it. So to me I doubt they are a bust. I picked the Red Sox just because I think their expectations from most people are a world series repeat.
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Re: Overrated teams

Postby Ek » Tue Feb 26, 2008 2:37 am

Here's mine, in order:

1) Detroit - good lineup, but right now their rotation is this:
Verlander (good #1 starter, not noticeably better than the other aces in that division or on the other AL contenders)
Bonderman (11-9 last year and coming off of an injury)
D-Train (severely damaged my fantasy team and many others last year, BAA was almost .300, and now he's supposed to have a bounceback year by going from the NL East to the AL Central...I just don't see it)
Kenny Rogers (Not the one that wrote "The Gambler," but not much younger than that guy either)
Nate Robertson (a good #5 starter, but a #5 starter).

So unless 2 out of the 3 from the middle of the rotation pitch way better than they reasonably can be expected to, there is no way they win the division barring a total collapse by Cleveland. I also don't expect the Sox or Twins to be nearly as bad as people are projecting right now - it honestly wouldn't shock me if they came in 3rd this year.

2) Yanks - I think they will miss Torre more than they realize as players feel more pressure from the usual NY media circus that Torre handled so well, and a lot of their key players are getting up there in years. I can't see them finishing worse than 2nd, but I wouldn't be surprised if they don't make it much of a race.

3) Cubs - No rationale here other than the fact that I've lived in Chicago for over 20 years and can't remember even one season where the Cubs were expected to make the playoffs and came through.
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Re: Overrated teams

Postby CadensDad » Tue Feb 26, 2008 3:18 am

How did this get into a yankee-vs- red sox chat? Oh wait everything here becomes that or steroids...... :-o
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Re: Overrated teams

Postby BronXBombers51 » Tue Feb 26, 2008 9:38 am

CadensDad wrote:How did this get into a yankee-vs- red sox chat? Oh wait everything here becomes that or steroids...... :-o


On page one it was a Cubs/Brewers chat. And there's been significant talk about the Reds and Tigers as well. The Yankees/Red Sox are a part of this chat because they are a part of the MLB, like it or not. And when discussing overrated teams, it's only right that you'd talk about the best teams in the league. Both Boston and New York are in the upper echelon of the league.

So if you're looking for talk of the Rangers, Royals or Pirates...then the 'overrated teams' thread probably isn't the place. ;-)
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Re: Overrated teams

Postby bigh0rt » Tue Feb 26, 2008 10:03 am

CadensDad wrote:How did this get into a yankee-vs- red sox chat? Oh wait everything here becomes that or steroids...... :-o

I thought things had been pretty good about degenerating in that direction, lately. During the season is a different story, but this thread is definitely not a prime example of something worth complaining about.
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