- AL East: Yankees (Posada can't repeat that year a la Lowell, Matsui/Damon/Posada/Jeter/Abreu/Rivera are another year older, rotation is full of question marks. Joba needed as a setup guy, who knows what you'll get if they make him a starter).
You talk about the Yankees like they are the only team where players get older every year. I can play the same aging game with the Red Sox, Manny/Ortiz/Lowell/Wakefield/Schilling/Varitek are all another year older as well. The AL East is going to be a race within 3-4 games just like it has been for the last couple years. The Yankees played horrible in the first half last year, as in they were under .500 until July 10 last year. Damon/Matsui/Abreu underperformed for most of the year. A regression from A-Rod and Posada will be matched by Abreu/Damon/Matsui returning to their '06 numbers. Also, Melky and Cano have another year of experience. As far as Joba, maybe you don't realize that he started the entire year last year until he was called up to the Yankees in relief. This was all done to limit his innings while allowing him to contribute, he isn't some complete unknown in the rotation. He had a phenomenal year going from A ball to MLB.
While this is certainly a possibility, I would not be banking on three 34 year old outfielders returning to previous years' production.
Ender wrote:the Reds step up and are the 2nd place team.
Only if they score about a billion runs this year. Francisco Cordero isn't going to be the magic cure-all that solves all their bullpen problems, and their rotation is Aaron Harang and Four Other Guys.
- AL East: Yankees (Posada can't repeat that year a la Lowell, Matsui/Damon/Posada/Jeter/Abreu/Rivera are another year older, rotation is full of question marks. Joba needed as a setup guy, who knows what you'll get if they make him a starter).
You talk about the Yankees like they are the only team where players get older every year. I can play the same aging game with the Red Sox, Manny/Ortiz/Lowell/Wakefield/Schilling/Varitek are all another year older as well. The AL East is going to be a race within 3-4 games just like it has been for the last couple years. The Yankees played horrible in the first half last year, as in they were under .500 until July 10 last year. Damon/Matsui/Abreu underperformed for most of the year. A regression from A-Rod and Posada will be matched by Abreu/Damon/Matsui returning to their '06 numbers. Also, Melky and Cano have another year of experience. As far as Joba, maybe you don't realize that he started the entire year last year until he was called up to the Yankees in relief. This was all done to limit his innings while allowing him to contribute, he isn't some complete unknown in the rotation. He had a phenomenal year going from A ball to MLB.
While this is certainly a possibility, I would not be banking on three 34 year old outfielders returning to previous years' production.
Damon starting hitting again once they put him in left field, can't imagine him putting up just a .750 OPS again in that lineup with his ability.
Ender wrote:the Reds step up and are the 2nd place team.
Only if they score about a billion runs this year. Francisco Cordero isn't going to be the magic cure-all that solves all their bullpen problems, and their rotation is Aaron Harang and Four Other Guys.
I agree. The Reds are getting too much love for my liking. They'd probably be my overrated NL Central team.
KCollins1304 wrote: You talk about the Yankees like they are the only team where players get older every year. I can play the same aging game with the Red Sox, Manny/Ortiz/Lowell/Wakefield/Schilling/Varitek are all another year older as well. The AL East is going to be a race within 3-4 games just like it has been for the last couple years. The Yankees played horrible in the first half last year, as in they were under .500 until July 10 last year. Damon/Matsui/Abreu underperformed for most of the year. A regression from A-Rod and Posada will be matched by Abreu/Damon/Matsui returning to their '06 numbers. Also, Melky and Cano have another year of experience. As far as Joba, maybe you don't realize that he started the entire year last year until he was called up to the Yankees in relief. This was all done to limit his innings while allowing him to contribute, he isn't some complete unknown in the rotation. He had a phenomenal year going from A ball to MLB.
While this is certainly a possibility, I would not be banking on three 34 year old outfielders returning to previous years' production.
Damon starting hitting again once they put him in left field, can't imagine him putting up just a .750 OPS again in that lineup with his ability.
Do you think there's causation there? He played out of his mind in LF last year (.353/.412/.528) in 133 AB. He only posted one month with an OPS over .800, September, and his OPS has never been consistently over .800 -- at every one of his stops he's bounced between the .700s and .800s, and one would have to think that as he's not getting any younger, his ability to maintain that OPS is going to be increasingly difficult. However, he's a talented player, and may be able to put up his '06 numbers -- I just wouldn't be banking or assuming it. I also don't see him slugging that high again, as '06 was the 2nd highest SLG he's produced in his career, although with that short porch in Yankee stadium, I suppose it's possible.
Ender wrote:the Reds step up and are the 2nd place team.
Only if they score about a billion runs this year. Francisco Cordero isn't going to be the magic cure-all that solves all their bullpen problems, and their rotation is Aaron Harang and Four Other Guys.
I agree. The Reds are getting too much love for my liking. They'd probably be my overrated NL Central team.
I'm on the fence about Arroyo this year. He had that AL to NL honeymoon year in 2006, but I think he still has enough stuff to get 10-12 wins against NL bats, and if they can score those runs (I think they'll only need half a billion runs, really ) they'll be in the mix. If the Cubs or Brewers don't take off in April/May I would expect to see the Reds within five games at the Break, and perhaps even late into August.
Belisle is not a bad pitcher either. 6.3 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 4.23 xERA. If he can get the ball down more and get that GB% back up around 48 I think he could have a good season. His ERA/WHIP were driven by BABIP and LOB%. If Bailey steps in and is productive they have four legit starting pitchers. The bullpen is still kind of ugly and like I said I probably went too far with the 3rd place Cubs comment but I think the Reds are the 3rd best team in that division if Baker doesn't hold them back too much.
Yeah, the Mariners overachieved and got lucky to do as well as they did last year. However, this year I wouldn't call them "overrated".
Lets face it, Felix Hernandez is likely to improve and possibly emerge as a true ace. He is just 21 years old and his time has come. Then you add Erik Bedard, who many pick as a top contender for the AL Cy Young now that Johan Santana is in the NL. Add in the best (or second best) closer in baseball in JJ Putz, and you have a team that is going to win a decent amount of games. On top of that, with the addition of Bedard and Carlos Silva, you remove the incredibly horrible Jeff Weaver and Horacio Ramirez from the rotation. Take a look at how bad those two guys were, yet the Mariners still won a lot of games behind them. You replace those two guys with Bedard and Silva and you have a huge improvement. Add to that the likely possibility of many of the Mariners players having better years than last year... Felix Hernandez, Richie Sexson, Jose Lopez... I don't know.. it seems like they are much better than the team that were contenders last year. Jose Guillen was probably the worst defensive RF in baseball, so Wilkerson is actually an improvement there as long as he continues to put up a respectable OBP. Another factor is the weak division they play in, and you have a contender on your hands. By no means do I think they have even a remote possibility of winning it all, but I do see them as a possible division winner if Felix and Bedard stay healthy.
I do believe that the Angels are a better team but I also see a lot of injury concern for them this year. Escobar is hurt as usual, Matthews Jr. is hurt, Garret Anderson plays like he's 50 years old, and Vlad's movement gets worse each year and just looks like he is hurt. I think Vlad is due for a down year or possibly an injury-plagued year. I don't see Lackey and Escobar reproducing their incredible seasons of last year (both were top Cy Young contenders), although they are great pitchers. No way in hell does Figgins hit .330 again. Call me crazy but I think this could get interesting.
- AL East: Yankees (Posada can't repeat that year a la Lowell, Matsui/Damon/Posada/Jeter/Abreu/Rivera are another year older, rotation is full of question marks. Joba needed as a setup guy, who knows what you'll get if they make him a starter).
You talk about the Yankees like they are the only team where players get older every year. I can play the same aging game with the Red Sox, Manny/Ortiz/Lowell/Wakefield/Schilling/Varitek are all another year older as well. The AL East is going to be a race within 3-4 games just like it has been for the last couple years. The Yankees played horrible in the first half last year, as in they were under .500 until July 10 last year. Damon/Matsui/Abreu underperformed for most of the year. A regression from A-Rod and Posada will be matched by Abreu/Damon/Matsui returning to their '06 numbers. Also, Melky and Cano have another year of experience. As far as Joba, maybe you don't realize that he started the entire year last year until he was called up to the Yankees in relief. This was all done to limit his innings while allowing him to contribute, he isn't some complete unknown in the rotation. He had a phenomenal year going from A ball to MLB.
Wow - you managed to be more defensive than I was I said nothing about how close the race would be or anything of that sort. I was simply pointing out some reasons why I think the Yanks won't reach expectations. Some counter points:
- Last I checked, Joba didn't start in the majors, so he is a complete unknown in that role regardless of his A-Ball stats. Same is true of Buchholz, so this isn't a slam. Plus the fact that he'll almost definitely be needed in the pen means the Yanks have a rotation of Wang, Pettitte, Mussina, Hughes, and Kennedy.
- I hadn't even counted Pettitte, Mussina, or Giambi in the "old count". So that's a total of 9 Yankee starters (out of 15, counting the closer) at or over the age of 34, many who are already showing signs of decline. Given that Schilling is done, that leaves only 4 Red Sox starters over the age of 34.
- I don't know where you see this magical resurgence coming from Damon or Matsui or Abreu any more than I could reasonably say that Manny or Varitek are going to revert to their 2004-2005 forms (though I am hopeful about Manny).
- Ortiz is younger than A-Rod at only 32, though I don't see either of them declining - you'll note I said nothing about A-Rod.
- Agree completely on Cano and Melky, just as I do with Ellsbury, Youkilis, and Pedroia.
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by bigh0rt » Mon Feb 25, 2008 12:54 pm 
) they'll be in the mix. If the Cubs or Brewers don't take off in April/May I would expect to see the Reds within five games at the Break, and perhaps even late into August.
I said nothing about how close the race would be or anything of that sort. I was simply pointing out some reasons why I think the Yanks won't reach expectations. Some counter points:
