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Biggest Busts

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Re: Biggest Busts

Postby HOOTIE » Sat Mar 01, 2008 3:26 pm

Using Yahoo rankings is a recipe for disaster.
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Re: Biggest Busts

Postby Curtis Pride » Sat Mar 01, 2008 3:46 pm

It's really difficult to discuss things with people who can't read.

For the third time, I AM NOT USING YAHOO RANKINGS.

These are AFTER THE FACT statistical measures of a players value during that season. It's historical fact, not predictive measures - where of course I wouldn't rely on Yahoo. I am not saying "Yahoo has Crawford ranked 14th so he's not a 1st round pick".

Regardless, there's an entire Carl Crawford is overrated thread, so I'll take my discussion there
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Re: Biggest Busts

Postby Bada_bing1980 » Sun Mar 02, 2008 7:15 pm

I'm surprised no one has mentioned Carlos Pena and BJ Upton, no way these guys match their numbers from last year
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Re: Biggest Busts

Postby bigh0rt » Sun Mar 02, 2008 7:24 pm

Curtis Pride wrote:It's really difficult to discuss things with people who can't read.

For the third time, I AM NOT USING YAHOO RANKINGS.

These are AFTER THE FACT statistical measures of a players value during that season. It's historical fact, not predictive measures - where of course I wouldn't rely on Yahoo. I am not saying "Yahoo has Crawford ranked 14th so he's not a 1st round pick".

Regardless, there's an entire Carl Crawford is overrated thread, so I'll take my discussion there

People are reading, but feel free to continue to get defensive.

Nobody said you were using Yahoo!'s O-Rank, but the fact remains that even when you sort by their stat rankings, their algorithms are severely flawed and slanted. Ditto for ESPN. Hence, why a dollar value was assigned by Ender and he went that route -- I think his method of assigning value is much more accurate, valuable, and justified than looking at Yahoo! or ESPN's historical rankings, but everybody is entitled to their own opinion. Crawford may not have lived up to some of what he's been projected for, but he's been worth a late first round pick in each of the last 4 seasons; at the very least 3 of the 4. Also, Yahoo!'s rankings are not historical fact, as you claim them to be. Nor are ESPN's.
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Re: Biggest Busts

Postby BronXBombers51 » Sun Mar 02, 2008 7:51 pm

Bada_bing1980 wrote:I'm surprised no one has mentioned Carlos Pena and BJ Upton, no way these guys match their numbers from last year


I can see Pena falling off a bit, but I don't people are drafting him expecting 50 bombs. And why do you think Upton is going to fall off?
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Re: Biggest Busts

Postby HOOTIE » Sun Mar 02, 2008 10:55 pm

Curtis Pride wrote:
Ender wrote:You aren't really using Yahoo to rate players?


Yes, I am.
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Re: Biggest Busts

Postby HOOTIE » Sun Mar 02, 2008 10:59 pm

KronJon wrote:Chris Young's BAA in the two years since coming to the NL:

.206
.192

That's just filthy.


Because of lucky 24 and 25 hit rate % the last 2 years. It was 30 in 05. 30% is normal for pitchers. He won't be lucky every year. Last 3 years xERA...

4.32
4.38
4.24
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Re: Biggest Busts

Postby davidmarver » Sun Mar 02, 2008 11:16 pm

HOOTIE wrote:Because of lucky 24 and 25 hit rate % the last 2 years. It was 30 in 05. 30% is normal for pitchers. He won't be lucky every year. Last 3 years xERA...

4.32
4.38
4.24

Right HOOTIE, on the surface those hit rates appear lucky. However, if you break down his LD, GB, FB, and IFFB numbers, the hit rate isn't lucky.

(.164*.75) avg. contribution due to odds his linedrives fell in for hits + (.291*.228) groundballs + (.413*.135) non-IF fly balls + (.133*.038) IF flyballs = .123 + .066 + .056 + .005 = .250

Chris Young's hit rate is 25% because most balls hit against him are low percentage balls in play, not because he's lucky.
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Re: Biggest Busts

Postby HOOTIE » Mon Mar 03, 2008 12:14 am

Hey DM, good to see you again. I guess we disagree on this. In 05, he had a higher gb% 33%, to 29% last year, and a 18% ld %, to 16% last year, yet had a worse era. I could bring up his lucky 4% hr/f ratio last year. Young is a huge flyball pitcher. If that hr/f ratio gets up there, so will the hit rate % and era. If he didn't have Petco, he would be a below league average sp.
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Re: Biggest Busts

Postby davidmarver » Mon Mar 03, 2008 12:29 am

HOOTIE wrote:Hey DM, good to see you again. I guess we disagree on this. In 05, he had a higher gb% 33%, to 29% last year, and a 18% ld %, to 16% last year, yet had a worse era. I could bring up his lucky 4% hr/f ratio last year. Young is a huge flyball pitcher. If that hr/f ratio gets up there, so will the hit rate % and era. If he didn't have Petco, he would be a below league average sp.

Well, the higher FB% is obviously a function of Petco Park, but I don't see how a 2% decrease in LD% isn't attributed to maturation. He also only had a .651 OPS against last season on the road, with 6 of those starts in Chase and Coors.

And a below average starting pitcher? His ERA+ in Arlington was 108, and those were his age 25 and 26 seasons. In San Diego his ERA+ have been 117 and 129; this while he's averaging nearly a strikeout an inning.
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