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Biggest Busts

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Re: Biggest Busts

Postby KronJon » Thu Feb 28, 2008 7:15 pm

Chris Young's BAA in the two years since coming to the NL:

.206
.192

That's just filthy.
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Re: Biggest Busts

Postby abrage22 » Thu Feb 28, 2008 8:00 pm

pena and phillips. i don' think tulo or granderson will liv up to thiere draftg posititon...
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Re: Biggest Busts

Postby angelo285 » Fri Feb 29, 2008 4:59 pm

My Busts (aka potential underperformers):

1. Martin
2. Phillips
3. Granderson (so much of his stats came in 1 month)
4. Tulowitzski (seriously, if it wasn't for his triple play and the rockies historic run he wouldn't be touted NEARLY as high as he is now)
5. Rollins/Wright (Both had amazing years last year...I just don't see how they can match the expectations people are giving them (Wright 3rd overall pick WTF).
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Re: Biggest Busts

Postby abrage22 » Fri Feb 29, 2008 6:54 pm

angelo285 wrote:My Busts (aka potential underperformers):

1. Martin
2. Phillips
3. Granderson (so much of his stats came in 1 month)
4. Tulowitzski (seriously, if it wasn't for his triple play and the rockies historic run he wouldn't be touted NEARLY as high as he is now)
5. Rollins/Wright (Both had amazing years last year...I just don't see how they can match the expectations people are giving them (Wright 3rd overall pick WTF).


actually alot of poeople like wright at 2 :-b . but what makes u think he won't live up to his expectations??? he's the only early 1st round 5x5 guy there is, and is just getting matured and more improved. if anything he should produce bettter numbers IMO.
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Re: Biggest Busts

Postby Curtis Pride » Fri Feb 29, 2008 7:32 pm

I pick Carl Crawford every year (as being overdrafted), and I'm right every year.

The guy has been picked in the first round each of the last 3-4 years, and hasn't once put up 1st round numbers. He gets picked in the first round, and always ends up with 2nd or 3rd round value.

I have no idea why people love him so much. I thought it was tons of speed with pretty good power, but Shane Victorino was on a nearly identical pace to Crawford's stat line last year, but Victorino is getting drafted 10 rounds later than Crawford.

It's a great mystery of life.
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Re: Biggest Busts

Postby Ender » Fri Feb 29, 2008 10:37 pm

I'd say first round value is $30. Crawford has put up $31+ each of the last 4 years. He has been worth a first round pick each of the past 4 years and most likely will be again this season. That is for roto, for H2H he isn't as valuable.

He has been more valuable than Rollins in 3 of the last 4 years. More than Holliday in 2 of the last 4. More valuable than ARod in 1 of 4 and almost as valuable in 1 of 4. More valuable than Pujols in 1 of 4. As much or more than Cabrera in each of the last 4 years.
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Re: Biggest Busts

Postby Curtis Pride » Sat Mar 01, 2008 1:58 am

OK, you could arbitrarily pick "$30" is being first round value since it fits your premise, or you could look at actual fantasy player raters, and you'll see that he hasn't finished in the top 12 once in his career.

I am having difficulty locating historical player raters for ESPN, but according to Yahoo:

Crawford finished 26th last year. 19th in '06 which was by far his best year. He was likely in the 30s in '05 and probably even lower in '04 and '03 since he didn't have any RBI.

He's consistent; that's for sure. He's healthy and always performs, granted. He's probably even be a top 12 fantasy player OVER THE PAST 3-5 YEARS. But in each individual year, he's never been.

He always gets overdrafted, and is continuing to be this year. I'd much rather have Victorino 10 rounds later.
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Re: Biggest Busts

Postby Ender » Sat Mar 01, 2008 12:51 pm

You aren't really using Yahoo to rate players? Baseball HQ's $ values are a lot better and Crawford has done exactly what I said above. People just don't understand how valuable SB and AVG are in roto so they always underrate AVG and SB guys. Crawford isn't a sexy 1st rounder but he should be going at the back end of the 1st round in a 14 team draft for sure and at the front end of the 2nd round of a 12 team draft at the latest.
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Re: Biggest Busts

Postby Another Blown Save » Sat Mar 01, 2008 12:59 pm

I have no problem with taking Crawford in the 2nd round (I haven't seen him go in the first round yet).
I pay for consistency in the first few rounds, and Crawford gives me that.
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Re: Biggest Busts

Postby Curtis Pride » Sat Mar 01, 2008 1:29 pm

Ender wrote:You aren't really using Yahoo to rate players? Baseball HQ's $ values are a lot better and Crawford has done exactly what I said above. People just don't understand how valuable SB and AVG are in roto so they always underrate AVG and SB guys. Crawford isn't a sexy 1st rounder but he should be going at the back end of the 1st round in a 14 team draft for sure and at the front end of the 2nd round of a 12 team draft at the latest.


Yes, I am. I'm not looking at their projections, I'm looking at historical statistical reviews of past seasons. It's not really that difficult.

Feel free to look at ESPN's player rater as well. Crawford wasn't in the top 30 there either.

I have no account with baseballHQ so your arbitrary "30" means nothing to me. Based on two factual sites (that actually use serpentine drafts and not auction values, Crawford has NEVER been worth a first round pick.
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