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Biggest Busts

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Re: Biggest Busts

Postby bigh0rt » Wed Feb 27, 2008 6:41 pm

KronJon wrote:
hot4tx wrote:AussieDodger, I'm curious why you put Delmon in there. Is there something that I haven't heard? If anything I think he's being overlooked in some drafts and slipping into the 11th-13th rounds. He did ok last year, but he's only what 22 and is still improving. I think the move to Minnesota could help him just for a change of scenery type issue (sometimes nice to get fresh starts when you're in your early-mid 20's)


Lets see... how about the fact that his OPS last year was equal to Juan Pierre's career OPS? People are fooled by his counting stats because he played in all 162 games. Don't overlook his horrible rate stats. He was just not good last year. Granted, with his age and upside, he could improve in leaps and bounds... but who knows.

He has a .293 AVG in 771 career Major League at-bats, and a career OPS+ of 94. At 22 years of age, I'll roll the dice on a guy who was once considered the best prospect since A-Rod, and presume that he will progress at a natural rate. If he isn't on of the Top 100 Overall performers this year I'll be shocked, and that's around where he's being drafted.
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Re: Biggest Busts

Postby KronJon » Wed Feb 27, 2008 7:46 pm

bigh0rt wrote:
KronJon wrote:
hot4tx wrote:AussieDodger, I'm curious why you put Delmon in there. Is there something that I haven't heard? If anything I think he's being overlooked in some drafts and slipping into the 11th-13th rounds. He did ok last year, but he's only what 22 and is still improving. I think the move to Minnesota could help him just for a change of scenery type issue (sometimes nice to get fresh starts when you're in your early-mid 20's)


Lets see... how about the fact that his OPS last year was equal to Juan Pierre's career OPS? People are fooled by his counting stats because he played in all 162 games. Don't overlook his horrible rate stats. He was just not good last year. Granted, with his age and upside, he could improve in leaps and bounds... but who knows.

He has a .293 AVG in 771 career Major League at-bats, and a career OPS+ of 94. At 22 years of age, I'll roll the dice on a guy who was once considered the best prospect since A-Rod, and presume that he will progress at a natural rate. If he isn't on of the Top 100 Overall performers this year I'll be shocked, and that's around where he's being drafted.


Ah yes, batting average. A .293 AVG doesn't hold much weight when your career OBP is .319, career slugging is .419, and career OPS is .738. Those are putrid numbers for an outfielder getting drafted in the top-100. I'm not saying that I don't think he will progress, and I'm not saying I won't draft him. But there are clear and obvious reasons why people are listing him in this thread. He was not good last year, and people are drafting him this year based on his hype and prospect status. At least I hope that is the case... maybe there are people out there who see 93 RBI's and think he was some kind of stud. I notice the .408 slugging and realize that he was very mediocre and would rather go with someone like Matt Kemp who appears to be going around the same time in drafts.
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Re: Biggest Busts

Postby colemwi » Wed Feb 27, 2008 9:31 pm

B.Phillips. Going way too soon. He will be 20/20 but being drafted for 30/30
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Re: Biggest Busts

Postby RedHopeful » Thu Feb 28, 2008 3:20 am

KronJon wrote:A .293 AVG doesn't hold much weight when your career OBP is .319, career slugging is .419, and career OPS is .738. Those are putrid numbers for an outfielder getting drafted in the top-100. I'm not saying that I don't think he will progress, and I'm not saying I won't draft him. But there are clear and obvious reasons why people are listing him in this thread. He was not good last year, and people are drafting him this year based on his hype and prospect status. At least I hope that is the case... maybe there are people out there who see 93 RBI's and think he was some kind of stud. I notice the .408 slugging and realize that he was very mediocre and would rather go with someone like Matt Kemp who appears to be going around the same time in drafts.


Even though you say you believe he may progress, I'm lost at how you still argue the stats of a 20/21 year old are a precursor that he'll be a bust. Bighort is absolutely right that he doesn't belong here. Don't base HIS potential solely on 1.25 years of MLB experience! At least combine it with what he did in the minors where he was mostly a TEENAGER. Btw, I find his high BA during his first full year actually very positive as well.
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Re: Biggest Busts

Postby Bogey9906 » Thu Feb 28, 2008 4:00 am

I had Delmon last year in my H2H league that counts OPS and BB, among others. He's a total BUST in that format. I ran my league format in BaseballMonster and he came up DEAD LAST, #216 among hitters for 2007. Wish I'd known that earlier, but I got caught up in the hype. He was a 16th round keeper and I thought I'd keep him for years. I threw him back in the pool for this year and I'll laugh to myself when someone takes him in the 8th round for his "upside".

I'm sure he'll improve and be a decent player, but I wouldn't expect a dramatic jump this year given his lack of plate discipline and lack of power so far. He may not be an absolute bust, but there are certainly better picks at his ADP range.
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Re: Biggest Busts

Postby bigh0rt » Thu Feb 28, 2008 6:55 am

KronJon wrote:
bigh0rt wrote:
KronJon wrote:Lets see... how about the fact that his OPS last year was equal to Juan Pierre's career OPS? People are fooled by his counting stats because he played in all 162 games. Don't overlook his horrible rate stats. He was just not good last year. Granted, with his age and upside, he could improve in leaps and bounds... but who knows.

He has a .293 AVG in 771 career Major League at-bats, and a career OPS+ of 94. At 22 years of age, I'll roll the dice on a guy who was once considered the best prospect since A-Rod, and presume that he will progress at a natural rate. If he isn't on of the Top 100 Overall performers this year I'll be shocked, and that's around where he's being drafted.


Ah yes, batting average. A .293 AVG doesn't hold much weight when your career OBP is .319, career slugging is .419, and career OPS is .738. Those are putrid numbers for an outfielder getting drafted in the top-100. I'm not saying that I don't think he will progress, and I'm not saying I won't draft him. But there are clear and obvious reasons why people are listing him in this thread. He was not good last year, and people are drafting him this year based on his hype and prospect status. At least I hope that is the case... maybe there are people out there who see 93 RBI's and think he was some kind of stud. I notice the .408 slugging and realize that he was very mediocre and would rather go with someone like Matt Kemp who appears to be going around the same time in drafts.

From a purely 5x5 perspective, which I was and continue to be assuming, sure it does. .293, 13 HR, 93 RBI, 65 R, 10 SB. I agree that his OBA and ISO have both been low, given how high a lot of people are on him; but as I said, if he just continues to progress at a normal rate, he's going to be one heck of a player. Add to that that he's already been putting up reasonable 5x5 numbers to begin with, and you can't blame people for drafting him. Again, if he falls outside of the Top 100 5x5 Ranked Players in 2008, I will be completely shocked.

Bogey9906 wrote:He may not be an absolute bust, but there are certainly better picks at his ADP range.

Other OF going in and around the same time as Delmon all seem to have their drawbacks, specifically with their recent 5x5 contributions... Bay, Dye, Andruw, Francoeur, Sheffield... now, 5x5 isn't applicable, as your league is counting OPS and BB, but none of those guys are screaming to be taken before Delmon, in my opinion. As I said, again, natural progression, one would assume that Delmon is working on his eye, and his plate discipline should improve (it already has -- OBA went from .019 in '06 to .028 in '07), as well as power development. At 22 years old, it's incredible how many people are writing this guy off...
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Re: Biggest Busts

Postby HOOTIE » Thu Feb 28, 2008 11:55 am

davidmarver wrote:
HOOTIE wrote:Chris Young sp

Is this because of injury concerns, or because you think this will (finally) be the year that those peripherals catch up to him?


25% hit rate % last year, very lucky. His xERA was 4.26.
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Re: Biggest Busts

Postby HOOTIE » Thu Feb 28, 2008 12:08 pm

BigHort, i love Delmon in a keeper. People get too down on guys not being stars right away, like Felix, Delmon. Give them a chance.
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Re: Biggest Busts

Postby hot4tx » Thu Feb 28, 2008 1:23 pm

I wouldn't spend an 8th round pick on him, but I've seen him going rds 10-12 (that's #108 - #144). While he's not on my short list to draft or anything, I just don't see him regressing much (improvement in discipline, power, and overall hitting ability will make up for ABs possibly coming down) and think he falls into the realm of being hyped up a lot his rookie year but then not hearing much from him the next year. Jeremy Hermida last year did the same thing (drafted too high due to hype in 2006 and then low in 2007) and I think in some league Alex Gordon will also do that this year. JMO.

I put every "#1 starting pitcher" besides Santana and Peavy and every "elite closer" as busts. Just every year you notice a rotating group of top-15 SPs. There's just a group of guys that are ranked lower or higher depending on who you ask and no one would be surprised if one did better or worse than the rest of them. I'll wait and grab what's left in the 5th through 10th rounds and probably have as good a chance of getting a top-10 pitcher as the guy that grabs Webb, Bedard, etc.

Closers are so up and down and value is tied into chances, that it's so unlikely for any of the "elite" options to be worth their value that I'll probably never own an elite closer again. Ever.
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Re: Biggest Busts

Postby davidmarver » Thu Feb 28, 2008 7:11 pm

HOOTIE wrote:
davidmarver wrote:
HOOTIE wrote:Chris Young sp

Is this because of injury concerns, or because you think this will (finally) be the year that those peripherals catch up to him?


25% hit rate % last year, very lucky. His xERA was 4.26.

But that's a result of having low groundball and line-drive numbers, while having a huge amount of popups and fly balls which are much better low hit % results. The 9+ K/9 certainly doesn't hurt either.
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